The Centers for Disease Control is an unreliable, politicized agency, in my opinion. But I assume they can aggregate death totals accurately from local sources. For the last year, there clearly have been some excess deaths, from all causes, over demographically predicted norms. That is what the chart below, from CDC’s web site, shows.
But we also know that the overwhelming majority of people who died from covid, or rather had the word “covid” somewhere on their death certificates, were old and already very sick. So it is reasonable to think that most “covid deaths” were people who, absent covid, would have died sometime in the next few months or the next year or two. If that is the case, we should see lower than predicted deaths from all causes going forward.
That is what the current data from CDC show:
Numbers for the last few weeks are incomplete, but already, five weeks ago, reported deaths were below demographic predictions. And the total number of deaths is sinking like a stone. What that means, I think, is that over the next year or two the “covid deaths” that have been counted over the last year will largely be neutralized by fewer total deaths. If so, that will confirm that “covid deaths” overwhelmingly consisted of not just the elderly, but the elderly and already very sick.