GOP Wave In 2022?

OK, that headline is clickbait, and we all know it is far too early to predict next fall’s elections with any confidence. Still, there are lots of positive indications. To begin with, there are multiple reports that while the Democrats feel comfortable with their position on the economy, with continuing rebound from the covid shutdowns assured and with some polls showing the public on board with the Biden administration’s money-printing scheme, they are deeply concerned about the unpopularity of their BLM/Antifa/CRT/anti-law enforcement agenda.

Then we have poll results from HarrisX suggesting that the Democrats’ spend-a-thon isn’t very popular either. The survey covered 10 swing Congressional districts:

Of those surveyed, just 12% support an infrastructure bill larger than $2 trillion, and at least 60% of voters in each of the ten districts said they opposed raising taxes at the federal level, two key components of Biden’s initial infrastructure plan.

Voters also said they are less likely to vote for members who significantly raise taxes or increase the deficit. In nine of the 10 districts surveyed, 70% or more of voters oppose raising income taxes. In the other district, 69% of voters oppose hiking income taxes.

If the Democrats’ all-out culture war is as unpopular as I think it is, findings like these point toward a full-scale GOP wave. And the landscape is favorable:

The University of Virginia Center of Politics released a report earlier this month showing that incumbent Democrats will already face an uphill battle in 2022 because of redistricting. According to the report, only two Republicans face toss-up races.

“What stands out here is the tiny number of Republicans in the Toss-up column, just two, versus the large number of Democrats there (19),” the report reads. “Overall, these ratings show 211 districts at least leaning to the Republicans, 203 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 21 Toss-ups (19 held by Democrats, two held by Republicans). Splitting the Toss-ups roughly down the middle – let’s say 11-10 Republican – would result in a 222-213 Republican majority, good for a nine-seat Republican net gain and a narrow majority the same size as the one Democrats elected in November.”

Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if the results are considerably better than that for Republicans, but the point for now is that control of the House is well within the GOP’s grasp next year. That is how it looks at the moment, anyway.

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