Trouble for Dems in Battleground States

Earlier this month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican Governors’ Association employed OnMessage Inc. to conduct a poll of 26 states where important Senate and gubernatorial races are shaping up in 2022. The poll included 1,200 likely voters, but it is not clear how those voters were distributed among the 26 states. Of the states that were surveyed, ten were classified as red, nine as purple, and seven as blue. The red states included Florida and Ohio, while the only large blue state surveyed was Illinois. Minnesota was among the blue states included in the poll.

Given the distribution of red, purple and blue states, this poll may skew to the right. Nevertheless, even if we discount conservative answers by a few points, the results are striking.

Generic Congressional ballots usually favor Democrats, and if the generic poll is even, it portends an excellent year for Republicans. Here, the GOP is up 43%-37% on the generic ballot, with Republicans leading among Independents by 34%-23%, with 23% undecided.

Voters in these battleground states think the U.S. is on the wrong track by 59% to 34%, a finding that bodes ill for the party in power. Strikingly, Independents think we are on the wrong track by a huge 62%-28% margin.

This poll tested the general images of the parties with voters. It found the Republican party at a net -1, 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable (but +2 with Independents). The Democrats were deeply underwater at a net -13, 41% favorable and 54% unfavorable. Significantly, the Democrats are net -22 with Independents.

There were a number of questions on the Democrats’ money-printing schemes. Happily, most voters don’t seem to be fooled. By 50% to 39%, respondents said that America can’t afford the Biden administration’s proposed increases in federal spending, as opposed to the claim that such spending is necessary. Independents oppose the spending by 51%-35%. And, by 51%-45%, respondents blame the current spike in inflation on Joe Biden. That percentage will grow.

Not surprisingly, the Democrats are in trouble on immigration, as respondents blame Joe Biden for the current jump in illegal immigration by 56%-40%. Here again, Independents’ answers are critical, as Republicans and Democrats split along tribal lines. But Independents blame Biden by a whopping 60% to 36% margin.

The survey included some questions on the recent Israel/Hamas conflict. Middle Eastern policy used to be more or less bipartisan, but it has become polarized like everything else. In total, 43% of respondents said that they sympathized with the Israelis in the recent conflict, with 11% saying they sympathize with the Palestinians. The partisan breakdown is striking: Republicans are on the Israelis’ side by 70% to 3%, while Democrats favor the Palestinians by 28% to 14%. (Other respondents said “both” or “neither.”)

In response to another question, Democrats said that Israel is an “occupier and a colonizer using modern military power to attack defenseless Palestinian civilians to steal indigenous Palestinian land” by a narrow 32% to 31% margin. In other words, the Democrats are as crazy as we keep saying they are. Happily, Independents side with Republicans on this one. By 58% to 14%, Independents reject the above “occupier” narrative in favor of the view that “Israel is a sovereign nation which has the right and the obligation to defend itself from terrorists intent on killing civilians.” On this and many other issues, hard-core Democrats are increasingly in a boat by themselves.

The poll’s findings on the Wuhan virus are interesting, too. Respondents were asked whether they agree with the proposition that “Democrats and the media have been far too weak on China by taking the Chinese Government’s propaganda as fact and calling American citizens racist for suggesting that the virus leaked from the Chinese Virology lab in Wuhan, instead of looking for the true origins of the virus that has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans.” Despite a hysterical effort by the press, the Democratic Party and social media platforms to suppress any suggestion of a lab leak, most people have figured out that something is going on here. By 55% to 29%, respondents agreed with the above proposition.

Finally, we come to Critical Race Theory, the racist ideology to which the Democratic Party is now irrevocably committed. Respondents were asked whether they agree with the idea that “White Americans are inherently racist whether they know it or not because they benefit from the American culture of systematic racism and white privilege.” The extraordinary thing, in my opinion, is that Democrats actually buy that bulls**t by 55% to 39%. These people, I take it, are masochists suffering from psychological problems not suitable for discussion on a family web site.

Happily, this is one more issue where Independents align firmly with Republicans. By 65% to 30%, they reject the “white privilege” hypothesis. On this issue, Independents may be even stronger than Republicans, who reject “white privilege” and “unconscious racism” by 63% to 33%.

Here is another one: respondents were asked whether they agree that “The United States was founded on the practice of slavery and white supremacy which continues to this day.” You might think that no one could be so ignorant as to agree with that claim, but “strong Democrats,” by an astonishing 67% to 28%, subscribe to what can only be termed vicious anti-Americanism. But here again, they are in a boat by themselves: Republicans reject this revisionist twisting of our history by 68% to 27%, and Independents do so by an even wider margin, 76% to 20%. The Democrats are determined to sink or swim with Critical Race Theory, and it looks to me like they are going to sink.

Any poll can convey only limited information: what a specific group of people said in response to specific questions at a moment in time. But evidence is rapidly accumulating that the Democrats, unless they can find a way to dramatically change the political landscape, are in deep trouble as we look toward next year’s elections.

Responses