What’s the matter with Florida?

In 2004, Thomas Frank published a widely-discussed book called What’s the Matter with Kansas? I didn’t read the book, but my understanding of Frank’s smug thesis is that Kansans, and by extension Americans (the title of the book overseas was What’s the Matter with America?), were voting against their interests, as Frank saw them, because they were distracted by cultural issues.

These days, Democrats are asking, “what’s the matter with Florida?” As they see it, Florida twice voted for the devil incarnate for president. It also elected Ron DeSantis, someone almost as bad as Donald Trump, to be governor. And now, despite ruinous governance (as the Dems see it), they seem likely to reelect DeSantis.

For the first time in history, there are nearly as many Republicans registered in Florida as there are Democrats. And Republican candidates are outperforming Democrats by increasing margins (Trump carried Florida in 2020 by three times his 2016 margin) even though, according to the Washington Post, new census numbers show that Whites now make up only 51 percent of the state’s population.

This article in the Post gives voice to the Democrats’ high anxiety:

To Kelly Smith, the case against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is strong. More than 50,000 Floridians killed by covid-19. A confrontational opposition to mask mandates and vaccines that has rubbed even some Republicans the wrong way.

But the Pasco County Democratic Party head is skeptical that Florida Democrats can capitalize on it to topple DeSantis (R) next November.

“My concern is [DeSantis] is going to win again, simply because people know his name and we haven’t been able to connect how his policies and executive orders impact them,” Smith said. “And we are a little behind in getting out and meeting the voters.”

Smith’s angst [is] echoed by local Democratic officials throughout Florida. . . .

Steve Simeonidis, former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party, puts the problem in Frankian terms.

We have failed to counter Republican propaganda, which has been especially aimed at Independent and no-party affiliated voters. Republicans have been able to convince them to vote against their own values. . . .

(Emphasis added)

There it is, again — the view that people vote Republican because they are too benighted to understand their interests or to translate their values. An obvious alternative explanation — that Democrats have abandoned traditional values and turned their back on the working class — is off the table.

Florida Democrats could learn from Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. Locked in a tight race for governor with Glenn Youngkin, McAuliffe is suddenly backing away a bit from the hard-left Democratic agenda. In his debate against Youngkin, McAuliffe allowed that the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion reconciliation package is “too high.” He also claimed he supports protecting qualified immunity for police officers and played down the idea that he would ever sign legislation ending Virginia’s status as a right-to-work state.

Too little, too late? Maybe. But shrewd, nonetheless.

Florida Dems might nominate a customer even more slippery than McAuliffe. Charles Crist is once again seeking to be governor. However, he faces strong opposition from a principled leftist — state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried.

Fried has a very small lead over Crist in the early polling. Polls show DeSantis defeating Fried. They are mixed as to a race between DeSantis and Crist.

The fly in the ointment for DeSantis is the high number of Wuhan coronavirus cases and deaths in Florida. Deaths attributed to the virus are well in excess of the national average. That’s not surprising given the age of Florida’s population. However, the surge in cases and deaths undoubtedly explains DeSantis’ decline in the polls.

If the pandemic wanes in Florida — and I think there’s a good chance it will — DeSantis should prevail in next year’s election, leaving Democrats to wonder: What’s the matter with Florida?

Notice: All comments are subject to moderation. Our comments are intended to be a forum for civil discourse bearing on the subject under discussion. Commenters who stray beyond the bounds of civility or employ what we deem gratuitous vulgarity in a comment — including, but not limited to, “s***,” “f***,” “a*******,” or one of their many variants — will be banned without further notice in the sole discretion of the site moderator.

Responses