Millions of Americans are fleeing blue states for freer, more prosperous red states. Many have worried that these refugees may be foolish enough to bring blue-state politics with them. This could happen, but recent voter registration data from Florida suggest that it isn’t happening there.
Hoo-boy! The pandemic effect on FL voter registration has been.. jaw-dropping
66/67 counties becoming redder
R's overtake D's for first time in state history@karol @HotlineJosh @guypbenson @MZHemingway @ReyAnthonyFL @Bryce__L @FloridaGOP pic.twitter.com/b8qWzLT8Og
— Tim (@TimDCpolitico) January 4, 2022
So in just ten months, the GOP has a net gain of 325,000 voter registrations. Stephen Green comments:
Out of over 14 million registered voters, last year Democrats held the edge with 37.38% of registrations compared to the GOP’s 35.28%. (The remaining four million or so — around 26% — were independents or members of minor parties.)
Democrats held a two-point advantage, but higher Republican turnout has made the state safely red in the last two presidential elections.
As you can see, the GOP now has a slight lead in registrations, having gained more than a quarter of a million party members in just the last nine months.
66 out of Florida’s 67 counties shifted towards the red.
Republicans made a net gain of over 61,000 in Miami-Dade County in just the last 10 months. I assume this has to do, at least in part, with minorities switching to the GOP.
Many of these new Republican voters might not be blue-state refugees; Governor DeSantis’s strong record no doubt has prompted some party-switching. But at a minimum, the numbers indicate that lots of new residents from blue states doesn’t necessarily mean lots of new blue voters.