Byron York has a terrific column exploring Joe Biden’s fall in the polls. He turns to three Republican pollsters and political consultants to ask if he has bottomed out or might have further to fall. My sense of humor is in a challenged condition, so forgive me, but their responses still have me laughing. I remember each of the points of reference they invoke.
How low can Joe go? Byron reports:
I asked three sharp Republican pollsters and political consultants: David Winston, Curt Anderson, and Dave Carney. The takeaway from all three is that it appears the majority coalition that elected Biden has fallen apart. And that is terrible news for both the president and his party.
“While there are a lot of groups that have become more disapproving of Biden’s job performance, Independents are at a remarkable level of disapproval,” Winston said in an email exchange. “In The Economist/YouGov survey (April 9-12), Independents disapproved by a 30-60 margin; the Politico/Morning Consult survey (April 8-11) was a similar 30-62; and the Quinnipiac survey (April 7-011) was 26-56. So among a group Biden won by 13 points in 2020, after Clinton lost them by four in 2016, his disapproval is 30 points or more higher than his approval. This means the majority coalition that elected him is now not in place. Regaining it will be difficult, given his current poor job approval performances on the economy and other issues.”
Carney and Anderson had different thoughts on whether Biden has hit the bottom, or nearly so, or can plunge further. “There is no limit or floor to a president’s approval rating, but historically, Nixon’s 24 percent in January 1974 seems like the practical floor for a modern-day president,” Carney said in another email exchange. “Biden has the potential to sink into the high 20s before the midterm elections, considering inflation will be raging by then. Wholesale prices were up over 11 percent last month, an early warning sign for a CPI increase this month and beyond. Vulnerable Democrats are already jumping ship, and other rats will soon follow suit. We have seen the best Biden has to offer, and voters have been left wanting.”
“As long as he doesn’t commit a crime, Biden has almost reached the mathematical floor,” Anderson said by email. “He could possibly drop a couple more points, but it doesn’t matter. His ship already has more holes than can be patched. The Democrats held out some hope months ago that inflation would be ‘transitory’ — whatever that means — but the economy is clearly not going to rebound to save the Democrats in November.”
“As long as he doesn’t commit a crime” seems like a condition contrary to fact for those of us following the news, but the point is well taken. The lid should hold.
Whole thing here.
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