Polls conducted by Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group are the ones to which I pay most attention. While other polls have become a recurring joke, Trafalgar’s have established an impressive record in recent years. Trafalgar, for example, was one of the only pollsters to predict President Trump’s 2016 victory and was the second most accurate pollster in 2020.
While other polls in Minnesota and elsewhere have given Democrats heart this summer, Trafalgar’s current polls show Republican Senate candidates doing well in difficult races around the country. What gives?
Cahaly has found those of us who think unapproved thoughts difficult to reach and to poll. This year he speculates on the phenomenon of “submerged voters.” He thinks that other polls are missing them. You can follow Cahaly on Twitter here.
Alpha News (on whose board I sit) commissioned Trafalgar Group to conduct a comprehensive Minnesota survey on the upcoming election. The results include all four statewide races and the top issues for Minnesota voters. Alpha News editor Anthony Gockowski reports the results this morning in “EXCLUSIVE: Jensen surges, Schultz leads in new Alpha News/Trafalgar Group poll.”
The poll shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen within three points of DFL Governor Tim Walz. According to Trafalgar, the Republican candidate is at the least running neck and neck with his DFL opponent. The poll shows Republican candidate Jim Schultz is actually leading Keith Ellison in the race for Attorney General outside the margin of error. No Republican has won the office of Attorney General in Minnesota since Doug Head in 1966. It has become a Democratic preserve.
Crime, the economy, and abortion are the top issues for Minnesota voters, in that order, but crime comes in first by a long shot at 41.5 percent. If you have followed Power Line over the past few years, this shouldn’t come as a shock.
The poll results are intensely interesting. Check them out here. I will save my further comments for another post.