From early in the covid epidemic, it seemed obvious that the shutdowns ordered by nearly all governors and many municipalities did little good and caused tremendous damage. Experience has borne out that conclusion, but almost everywhere, governments have moved on without any accounting for the mistakes that were made.
American Experiment has just released two papers that address the consequences of covid shutdowns. While their specific focus is on Minnesota, their analyses are readily applicable to other states.
Economists John Phelan and Martha Njolomole performed a multi-factor regression analysis to isolate the effect of state and local shutdowns on economic growth. They used the stringency index developed by scholars at Oxford University to rate the stringency of shutdowns state by state and week by week. They accounted for other factors, including the number of covid cases, the extent that a state’s economy relies on the hard-hit hospitality and entertainment industries, and state tax policy.
Their conclusion is that Minnesota’s covid shutdowns cost the state $10.6 billion in GDP growth by the first quarter of 2021, or around $7,500 for a typical family of four. Their paper includes stringency and economic data on all 50 states, so the analysis can easily by applied anywhere in the U.S.
Policy Fellow Catrin Wigfall analyzed the effect of school shutdowns on the academic performance of public school students in Minnesota. She found that Minnesota students, on average, missed the 14th largest number of days due to school shutdowns among the states. The consequences were devastating.
Academic performance of Minnesota’s public school students dropped off a cliff as a result of covid shutdowns. This chart tells the story:
Currently, only 44% of Minnesota public school students can do math at grade level, while 50% are unable to read at grade level. To me, this is most shocking: only 36% of Minnesota’s 11th graders can do math at grade level. And grade level is nothing to write home about. One wonders what employment future these students can possibly have.
It was obvious in early 2020 that covid posed little or no threat to children. The fact that our youth lost a year or more of education isn’t a tragedy, it is a crime. I hope that in every state, policy analysts are examining, and publicizing, the consequences of covid shutdowns. It is critical that we hold the responsible politicians accountable.
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