I have been following Jon Ralston’s postelection Twitter updates on the outstanding votes and related results in Nevada’s Senate race. In my morning-after comments on the midterms, I assumed that Blake Masters would lose in Arizona and hoped that Adam Laxalt would pull it out in Nevada. Ralston is hostile to Laxalt and pulling for incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, but he is an expert on Nevada politics. Take his analysis as you will.
If her margin decreases from 65-30 to 60-30, for instance, she would still in decisively.
If it is 60-35, same.
If it's 55-30, same.
If it's 55-35, same.
She wins in all those models.
Buckle up.
Good night to all. See you for more math tomorrow!
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 10, 2022
Below are the most recent comments Laxalt has posted on Twitter.
Last night went exactly as we anticipated. We added 3K from the rurals and more are coming. She added some Clark County mail. We expect the remaining mail universe to fall well below the percentage she needs to catch us. No status change.
— Adam Paul Laxalt (@AdamLaxalt) November 10, 2022
If Laxalt and Masters both lose, the Georgia runoff will give Democrats the opportunity to push their margin in the Senate to 51-49. They would remain in control regardless of the outcome. It would only afford Republicans the opportunity to maintain the debilitating status quo in the Senate.
UPDATE: After I wrote this morning Laxalt tweeted out his own Nevada update.
Clark County Clerk just reported there are just over 50K ballots left. This number includes Election Day drop off. We know there are rural and Washoe votes to be counted. Assuming these two at least offset, then Cortez Masto needs 63.5% to catch us. We remain very confident.
— Adam Paul Laxalt (@AdamLaxalt) November 10, 2022
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