The Arizona and Nevada Senate races have been called for Democratic incumbents Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto, respectively. With only the Georgia Senate runoff election outstanding, the Democrats appear to have maintained their 50-seat majority in the Senate (with Vice President Harris breaking ties). Democrats can enhance their majority to 51-49 with a victory in the Georgia runoff or maintain the status quo with a loss. The AP’s story on the latest developments is “Democrats keep Senate majority as GOP push falters in Nevada.”
It seems to me characteristic of a wave election for the prevailing party to win these close races. With the important exception of Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, that is what we have here to some extent at the Senate level. All hail Senator Johnson. Let us hear from him on how he did it and what is to be done. I’m sure our friend Jon Justice will take it up with “our adopted Senator from Wisconsin” in one of his regular appearances on Jon’s KTLK morning show. [UPDATE: In the meantime, see Evita Duffy’s Federalist column “Ron Johnson’s Victory Shows Republicans Don’t Have To Sacrifice Bravery To Win Swing States.”]
The result in the House has not yet been determined. Steven Shepard’s Politico story “The path to 218: Why Democrats aren’t out of the race for the House yet” is helpful to get a sense of the state of play.
At the moment Republicans stand at 211 seats (+7) and Democrats at 204 (-7) with 218 needed for a majority. Democrats are not out of it yet. Too many of the races with outcomes yet to be determined are located in California. Republicans should be sweating it out. RCP has House races posted here. The screenshot below — gray represents undecided — is taken from the RealClearPolitics home page as of early Sunday morning.
In its summary of the generic national House vote RCP has Democrats at 47,290,997 (46.7 percent) and Republicans at 52,084,763 (51.4 percent), again as of early Sunday morning. My tentative comment about a blue wave in the Senate races does not apply to the House. I think this prediction/projection is worth a look.
This is very good from @Nate_Cohn. If current trends continue in the House, we're looking at a 219-216 R majority. https://t.co/NYXpCtErZk pic.twitter.com/YyzOXrjmNR
— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) November 12, 2022
More from the Heritage Foundation’s Kevin Roberts.
This failure must spark serious changes in Republican leadership—and their DC-centric, consultant-driven non-strategy. Having spent the last few days with everyday conservatives at @Heritage’s annual mtg the base is on the brink of walking away forever. https://t.co/dVnupNuyZh
— Kevin Roberts (@KevinRobertsTX) November 12, 2022
I only want to add this note. Our election system has evolved into a farce and a disgrace. Something needs to be done, but nothing will be done so long as it suits the interest of Democrats. As of now, Republicans need to learn how to get in the game, let alone play it.
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