So here it is. I’m down with the prediction that the GOP will net 26-35 House seats, and at least two in the Senate. Henry Olsen, a guest last week on our podcast, is out with his final predictions at the Washington Post. For those who aren’t subscribers, here are a couple highlights of his bullish predictions:
Inflation, crime, progressive attempts at overreach and a general sense that President Biden is not up to the job will likely deliver a surprisingly large victory to Republicans. I predict the GOP will win the national popular vote by about 5.5 points, likely gaining between 31 and 40 House seats in the process. I also expect it will retake control of the Senate, gaining two to four seats.
He’s even more optimistic than I am, which is rare. In any case, Henry looks beyond this election to speculate whether we have reached a turning point, and are perhaps on the cusp of finally ending the stalemate between the two parties that has ruled the scene for roughly the last 30 years:
But the GOP’s victory could also represent a chance for the United States to finally end its political quagmire. Republicans will gain support in almost every voter demographic, but they will make especially large inroads among Hispanics and middle-income suburbanites. These voters are not yet Republicans, but they increasingly recognize they are not modern Democrats.
If the GOP plays its cards right and avoids base-pleasing partisan overreach, it could finally break our country’s stalemate. The White working class’s abandonment of Democrats in the 2010 midterms foreshadowed its movement into the GOP as Donald Trump broke Republican orthodoxy. A similar unorthodox move in 2024 could turn the tables on the Democrats, creating the foundation for a long-term Republican resurgence.
Meanwhile, a few charts to reflect on the underlying dynamics between the two parties at the present time. (I’m using these for my talk about American politics in Budapest tonight.)
Now we start to understand why college faculty political registration and campaign contributions are 95 percent Democrat.
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