The movement of the movable portion of the electorate seems to be heading toward Republican candidates. Incumbent Senate Democrats have struggled to clear the 50 percent bar in polls — a factor suggesting that they may have a problem. Incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan is a worthless zero, but incumbency has its advantages and New Hampshire is something of a swing state.
Hassan lucked out when incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu passed on the opportunity to challenge her. Sununu is New Hampshire’s most popular politician by far. I think Hassan also drew the opponent she preferred when retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc defeated New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse in the ludicrously late Republican primary.
According to a poll of likely voters just released by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, Bolduc has come from behind to pull even with Hassan. The poll results are summarized here (full results here). The poll actually shows Bolduc leading by one point at 48-47 percent, within the margin of error (+/- 2.5 percent). However, Hassan remains under 50 percent and the movement is toward Bolduc.
In related good news, the 25-year-old Karoline Leavitt appears poised to take out Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas in New Hampshire’s First Congressional District. On the cusp of victory, Leavitt was profiled in an October 30 AP story. According to the poll, Leavitt has built “a solid” 51-45 percent lead over two-term incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas. I believe that is also within the poll’s slightly larger margin of error for the congressional race (+/- 3.5 percent), but it gives an idea of what is going on.
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