I’ve been serving up tea leaves in advance of the midterm elections this week. I am not an optimist by nature, prepared to be disappointed, do not believe in predictions, and hope only to be a fair broker of the most reliable polls and information I can find. I take my motto from George Eliot’s narrator in Middlemarch: “Among all forms of mistake, prophecy is the most gratuitous.” However, I can predict with some certainty that I will shut this series down no later than tomorrow.
In his New York Post column today Michael Goodwin foresees a red wave washing up the shores of New York. He draws on communications from friends and acquaintances, although he hedges his bet a little. In her Pittsburgh Post-Gazette column today Salena Zito finds Dr. Oz connecting with Pennsylvania voters. I can only say let it be.
Below we have a glimpse of early votes cast in Nevada. This is a bona fide tea leaf. I read to be consistent with hope and change, to borrow the mind-numbing slogan. This tea leaf can be read to foretell the defeat of incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and the election of Republican former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
NEVADA EARLY VOTING COMPARISON
Democrats: 38.3% (D+198 votes)
Democrats: 40.4% (D+45,461)
✅ Net Swing: +45,263 towards the GOP from 2020. That's +11,667 votes MORE than Biden's NV 2020 margin
Data from @WinWithJMC
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 6, 2022