Tossups? I Don’t Think So

Breitbart has an article on New Hampshire’s Senate race, where General Don Bolduc–of whom I admit I had not heard until recently–has come storming from behind to overtake incumbent mediocrity Maggie Hassan.

At Breitbart, Wendell Husebo points out that neither Joe Biden nor Barack Obama has set foot in New Hampshire to campaign for Hassan. I infer that Hassan doesn’t want to be associated with Biden, while Obama doesn’t want to be associated with a sinking ship. In any event, Hassan is on her own and, like a number of Democrats in this cycle, is running a stealth campaign from her basement.

“She has closed events for a reason,” Gen. Bolduc told Breitbart News Saturday. “She communicates through newsletter and email for reasons. She doesn’t do town halls for a reason, and when she does them, they are zoom town halls. So she’s just hiding.”

I might add that the first time Gen. Bolduc came onto my radar was in conversation with Tulsi Gabbard. She got up early following our event to fly to New Hampshire to campaign for Bolduc. She told me that she had vetted the general and concluded that he is one of the military’s good guys. I believe Gen. Bolduc was the first of the several Senate candidates on whose behalf she has now criss-crossed the country, and having seen her in action, I suspect that her support accounts in part for Bolduc’s surge.

This is how the Breitbart story on the New Hampshire race ends:

The New Hampshire Senate race is one of seven Senate races that RealClearPolitics estimates as tossups. Those include Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Washington State, Georgia, and Wisconsin. RealClearPolitics projected Tuesday Gen. Bolduc will defeat Hassan.

I agree with that last projection. But how about the others?

Pennsylvania: I don’t care that the polls are tight. I don’t believe Pennsylvanians, or residents of any other state, will elect poor, sad John Fetterman to the Senate.

Arizona: Kari Lake is going to win in a landslide, and she will help provide Blake Masters with the last point or two he needs to get over the top.

Nevada: Adam Laxalt averages a point or so ahead of incumbent Cortez Masto in the polls. I think his margin of victory will be more than that.

Washington: A total free throw for the GOP. History tells us another mediocrity, Patty Murray, should squeak by. But if it is a big Republican night, who knows? Tiffany Smiley might slip through.

Georgia: It’s Herschel Walker all the way. Georgians have had it with the appalling Stacey Abrams, and Georgia resembles Arizona: Governor Brian Kemp will win big over the has-been Abrams, and that will help to give Walker a winning margin.

Wisconsin: Why do people consistently underestimate Ron Johnson? I don’t know. He is an excellent senator and a good campaigner. His opponent is a left-wing extremist in a state that is purple, trending to the right. Johnson will hold the seat for the GOP.

Those races, with New Hampshire, net out to +4 for the GOP. Call me an optimist, but I don’t think the Republicans’ recapture of the Senate will be a nail-biter.

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