During the last few months, I have been asked by numerous friends across the country whether Minnesota is in play. Whether, in other words, Donald Trump might actually carry the state.
My answer has always been No. Trump is beloved in rural Minnesota, as in the countryside generally, but he is deeply unpopular in the Twin Cities suburbs, the main population center of our state, and, as in many states, home to most of the swing districts. Twin Cities suburban women, in particular–some would say, the classic wine moms–have been strongly anti-Trump.
But something seems to be going on here. One of our local television stations polled some weeks ago and found Kamala Harris with a ten point lead. Then, after Governor Tim Walz was announced as Harris’s running mate, they polled again. This time, Harris’s lead had dwindled to five points. Maybe a statistical fluke, but certainly not a ringing endorsement of her choice of our governor for vice president.
Now, the left-wing MinnPost has a poll that shows Harris with a narrow four-point lead, 48%-44%.
The breakdown is interesting. Harris of course has a huge lead in the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Trump dominates in Greater Minnesota. But:
Harris secured a substantial majority of the vote (73% to Trump’s 21%) in Minneapolis and St. Paul, but the candidates are virtually tied in the seven-county metro area excluding Minneapolis and St. Paul. Trump had a more dominant lead (28 percentage points) in Greater Minnesota.
If Trump can run anywhere near even in the Twin Cities suburbs, the election in Minnesota will be close.
My point here is not to predict that Trump will carry Minnesota. I still don’t think he will. No Republican presidential candidate has carried Minnesota since Nixon in 1972, and no Republican candidate for any office has won statewide since 2006.
But if Trump runs close here, and if even the Twin Cities suburbs are open to his message, there are a number of other states that should fall into his column. It is also notable that Tim Walz’s presence on the Democratic ticket has done Harris zero good, even in Walz’s home state. If Democrats thought they could sell Walz in rural America as a small-town “moderate” and a veteran, that hope has evidently fizzled.
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