Vitol is a large energy and commodities company, with revenue of $400 billion. It has major petroleum investments, but also genuflects to the left with “renewable” investments and an ESG section on its web page. As a company that needs to make money, its forecasts reflect reality rather than fantasies.
This is how Vitol sees the demand for oil from now until 2040:
Vitol predicts demand for oil used in transportation to decline slightly over the next 15 years, while demand increases in all other sectors. This is based on the assumption that EVs will gain significant market share, an assumption that I think is questionable. In any event, “net zero” by 2040 (or any other year), an oft-stated governmental goal, is sheer fantasy.
We see here the difference between activists and politicians on one hand, and business people on the other. Activists promote pipe dreams because they are paid to do so. Politicians adopt those pipe dreams because they generate financial support and often votes, while, for them, there is no accountability. Whereas business people have to deal with reality.
The reality is that only a recession, or a reduction in global activity such as was caused by covid hysteria, will cause demand for fossil fuels to decline. To Vitol’s forecast, I would add that in 2040, more coal will be burned than the record amounts that we are seeing today.
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