2016 House Elections

The McArdle prophecy

Featured image In a post dated July 12, 2013, Bloomberg View columnist Megan McArdle looked ahead to the elections of 2016. She foresaw a high likelihood of Republicans controlling the White House, the Senate and the House. Over at the New Republic Nate Cohn disputed McArdle’s reasoning. McArdle posted this at the site promoting her book The Up Side of Down. Among other things, McArdle followed this up with the 2015 column »

House update: Dem gains slight; Issa squeaking through

Featured image It now looks like the Democrats will pick up only 6 or 7 seats in the House. That’s a poor showing. Even in pessimistic scenarios (for them) they were expecting at least a dozen pick-ups. The low number may prove significant in 2018. It leaves the Dems with more work to do than expected in order to capture the House in that year’s election. Meanwhile, I’m happy to report that »

Power Line picks — the scorecard

Featured image We want to thank all of our readers who contributed to one or more of our Power Line picks. Four of the six won last night, which isn’t bad considering that we picked three underdogs including one, Sen. Johnson, who many thought was a lost cause when we picked him. We didn’t quite match 2014 when five our our six candidates won. I view five as an ideal number. If »

After last night [with dittos by Paul]

Featured image With Donald Trump’s improbable victory last night, the Clinton Crime Family can retire from public life to enjoy its ill-gotten gains. Lady Hillary tastes the fruit of an incredibly bitter and humiliating defeat. Her zombie husband is now free to continue his “charitable” efforts and pursue other interests unimpeded by the need to keep up appearances. I pray that Donald Trump will honor the high office he has attained. As »

House (and Toomey) update [UPDATED TWICE]

Featured image Scott Garrett came up a little short in New Jersey-5. He’s losing by 11,000 votes with more than 90 percent counted. His opponent has been declared the winner by Politico. In Minnesota-8, Stuart Mills, another Power Line pick, trails by 3 points and about 10,000 votes with 60 percent counted. This contest is still up for grabs, I assume, but the incumbent Democrat has the edge. I haven’t seen any »

Scott Garrett struggling in New Jersey-5 [UPDATED]

Featured image Win some and maybe lose some. Rep. Scott Garrett, a Power Line pick for the House, is a little more than 10 points behind his Democratic opponent. Almost half of the vote is in. We like to select up-and-coming candidates for our House picks — folks like Tom Cotton (in 2012), Mia Love, Alex Mooney, Elise Stefanik, and Brian Mast. We made an exception this year for the embattled Garrett, »

Republicans will retain control of the House

Featured image NBC News has projected that the Republicans will retain control of the House. It expects the GOP to hold 235 seats to the Democrats’ 200. Currently, Republicans hold 247 seats. So NBC is saying the Dems will gain 12. With so much voting still going on and so many votes to be counted in states where the polls have closed, I don’t think we can take the NBC head count »

Mast out to early lead [UPDATED: MAST WINS]

Featured image Brian Mast is leading in the Florida-18 race. With about 12 percent of the vote in, he’s ahead by 52.3 to 44.5. Mast was a Power Line pick. We wrote about him here. This race represents a rare, if not unique, opportunity for the Republicans to pick up a House seat currently held by a Democrat. So far, it’s looking good. UPDATE: Mast now leads by about 10 points with »

Support Brian Mast

Featured image Brian Mast is the Power Line pick in the Florida-18 congressional race. Mast is running to fill the seat vacated by Patrick Murphy, who is trying to unseat Marco Rubio. John profiled Mast here. John wrote: Mast is a 12-year veteran of the Army, where he served in the Joint Special Operations Command as a bomb disposal expert, saving his fellow troops from IEDs. In Afghanistan, he defused one bomb »

Annoy Meg Whitman, support Scott Garrett

Featured image Meg Whitman is the chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Co. A liberal Republican, she was crushed by Jerry Brown when she ran for governor of California in 2010, an excellent year for the GOP. This year, Whitman has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. Not content with endorsing a left-wing crook for the nation’s highest office, Whitman is doing her part to give Clinton a Democratic House by endorsing Democrat Josh »

Scott Garrett for Congress

Featured image Scott Garrett doesn’t fit the usual profile for a Power Line pick. Usually, we pick up-and-coming candidates like Tom Cotton, Mia Love, Joni Ernst, and Alex Mooney. Garrett has represented New Jersey’s fifth congressional district since 2003. However, he’s locked in a difficult race this year. Given his strongly conservative record, we are asking our readers to support him. Garrett is a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus. He »

For the House, Brian Mast

Featured image Brian Mast, one of our six Picks for the 2016 cycle, is running for Congress in Florida’s 18th District. The seat is open, as incumbent Democrat Patrick Murphy is leaving the House to run against Marco Rubio for the Senate. Mast beat five other Republicans in a primary to win the nomination, and is now facing Randy Perkins, an undistinguished wealthy liberal. Mast is a 12-year veteran of the Army, »

Charlie Crist vouches for Hillary’s honesty; hilarity ensues

Featured image Who is the biggest charlatan in American politics today? Once, I would have said John Edwards, but he’s out of the game (as far as I know). These days, I think the correct answer is Charlie Crist. You can get a good sense of why I award the biggest charlatan title to Crist in this post and this one. One might have thought that, like John Edwards, Crist is out »

For the House, Mia Love

Featured image Mia Love is the daughter of Haitian immigrants who first ran for Congress in 2012, losing by 768 votes. She ran again in 2014, winning this time by 4,000 votes against a different opponent, Democrat Doug Owens. In office, Love has been a fiery spokeswoman for the GOP’s conservative wing. The American Conservative Union gives her a 96% rating on her two years in office. As a young, black Republican »

For the House, Stewart Mills

Featured image Power Line helped to launch Stewart Mills’s political career in 2013, when we posted his video letter to senators Franken and Klobuchar. The video was an effective defense of gun rights in general, and the AR-15 in particular. Mills’s family owned Mills Fleet Farm, a chain of rural/exurban Midwestern stores that sell, among many other things, a store brand AR-15. Stewart’s video performance was so good that his friends told »

The 2016 Power Line Picks

Featured image However one feels about this year’s presidential election, I don’t think conservatives can dispute the importance of the congressional races. If Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, a Republican House and Senate will be crucial to thwarting her left-wing designs. If Trump wins, a Republican House and Senate will be crucial to advancing the conservative part of his agenda (if any) and blocking the liberal part (if any). It’s true that »

GOP silent on AFFH, as Democrats target House seats in wealthy suburbs

Featured image The conventional wisdom holds that Republicans will maintain control of the House even if Donald Trump loses the presidential election decisively. However, most of those who subscribe to this view believe that the Democrats have some hope of taking the House. How might the Democrats accomplish this? According to the New York Times, the plan is to target seats held by Republicans in affluent suburbs of big cities. The Times »