2018 Election

Paul Ryan and beyond

Featured image Speaker Paul Ryan will be stepping down. He will not seek re-election to the House. I like and admire Ryan, but believe he’s been a disappointment as Speaker. His signature issue was always entitlement reform/fiscal responsibility. Ryan was never likely to get entitlement reform. However, he might at least have avoided the gross fiscal irresponsibility of the omnibus bill that Congress recently passed and the president signed. Alternatively, and preferably, »

Will the Midterms Be a Disaster For Republicans?

Featured image November may bring a Blue Wave. That’s what Scott Walker warns will happen, if Republicans and conservative-leaning independents don’t get back in the game. The Democrats agree, for the most part. Democratic Party activist Brent Budowsky, writing at The Hill, offers an enthusiastic version of the Dems’ high expectations: “Mueller will drop midterm Russia bombshells on GOP Congress.” Budowsky thinks Mueller’s investigation is carefully calibrated to do the Democrats the »

Wisconsin warning

Featured image All signs point to a gathering storm that will wipe out Republicans in the midterm elections. If there are any countervailing signs other than the friendly map for Senate elections, I don’t know what they are. The Wall Street Journal puts it this way in its editorial today: “If Mr. Trump is the main issue on Election Day in November, all the evidence now points to an electoral wipeout like »

How the left fell short in Illinois race

Featured image Dave Weigel reports on last week’s Democratic primary in Illinois’ third congressional district. The seat is held by Daniel Lipinski. He’s a pro-life Democrat and a moderate, at least in the eyes of progressives. TPM, the left-wing website, says Lipinski “has spent his career sticking his fingers in the eyes of progressives, vocally bucking his party on everything from abortion to Obamacare to gay rights.” The district encompasses much of »

Dueling Headlines

Featured image A few weeks back in a moment of mischief I tweeted the following for discussion: Well let’s see where we are today, with the following dueling headlines from The Hill: Dems are angry over Hillary Clinton’s latest comments Democrats are angry that Hillary Clinton continues to discuss what went wrong during the 2016 presidential election against President Trump. Even some of Clinton’s own former aides and surrogates say the former »

Democrats double down on fake

Featured image For those of us who don’t view the 2018 midterm elections as near no-lose for Republicans, the result of last night’s special election in Pennsylvania has to be somewhat concerning. The Democrat and the Republican split the vote evenly in a Republican district that Donald Trump carried by 20 points. The Democrats’ strategy this year is straight from the 2006 playbook. In moderate and conservative jurisdictions, run candidates who pretend »

The No-Lose Midterm Election

Featured image With all the votes (apparently—you never know) counted in Pennsylvania, Conor Lamb appears to have squeaked out a 579-vote win in the special election for 18th District U.S. House seat. Lamb ran essentially as a Republican in sheep’s clothing—pro-life, against gun control, etc.—though of course if his win survives a recount he will become a reliable vote for Nancy Pelosi, except perhaps for Speaker in November if Democrats take the »

Poll: Democratic incumbents trail in five Senate races

Featured image Last year at this time, many Republicans were optimistic about the opportunity to pick up enough Senate seats in 2018 to approach, or maybe even reach, a filibuster-proof majority — i.e. 60 seats. After all, ten seats held by Democrats in states carried by President Trump would be in play. By the end of the year, however, many Republicans were questioning whether the GOP could pick up enough seats to »

If You’re Gonna Run In Texas…

Featured image Democrats dream of turning Texas into a blue state, thereby cementing the far left’s hold on America for the foreseeable future. They hope to make progress toward that goal this year, and they were counting on a blue wave of enraged liberals to emerge in Tuesday’s primaries as a harbinger of victory in November. They even hope that their man Beto O’Rourke can drive Ted Cruz out of the Senate. »

Democrats are surprised that more money in pay checks is popular

Featured image How out of touch is the Democratic Party? This out of touch: The Washington Post reports that Democrats expected the Trump tax cut to be unpopular and are surprised to find that voters like seeing more money in their pay checks. Post reporter Erica Warner writes: Democrats predicted a political backlash for ­Republicans in December when the GOP pushed through a deeply unpopular tax cut that added more than $1 »

Feinstein loses backing of California Democratic Party

Featured image In a sign of the times, the California Democratic Party has declined to endorse the state’s senior senator in her bid for reelection. In fact, Dianne Feinstein lost to her Democratic opponent in a vote at the state’s Democratic convention. Hard left-winger Kevin de Leon received 54 percent of the vote, compared to Feinstein’s 37 percent. De Leon fell short of the 60 percent support required to get the Party’s »

Poll: GOP and Trump are no longer under water

Featured image There’s more good polling news for Republicans today — the best yet in this cycle. A Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that the GOP has pulled, in effect, level with the Dems in the generic congressional poll. 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. President Trump’s numbers have also improved dramatically, according to »

Another Sign That November Won’t Be a Democrat Sweep

Featured image I explained here why I don’t think that 2018 will be a Democratic blowout along the lines that 2010, for example, was for Republicans. Today more evidence that November won’t be a walk in the park for Democrats came from Minnesota, where 8th District representative Rick Nolan announced that he will not seek re-election: U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan said Friday that he will not run for re-election this year, an »

Republican electoral prospects brighten

Featured image Before I left for a week in the beautiful Dominican Republic, I had the sense that GOP prospects for this year’s elections were on the upswing. I return to find there’s no doubt about it. In December, the Democrats held a 15 point lead in a Monmouth poll that asked the “generic” question of whether respondents are more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their own »

Today’s Classroom Lesson: Demystifying Opinion Polls

Featured image Between now and November we’ll be awash in opinion polls, and partisans on both sides will be deploying them chiefly as a tactic of vote suppression—trying to discourage the other side that all is lost. Now, I could give a classroom style treatise here on the tricks and defects of opinion polling, or I could just enlist another scene from Yes, Prime Minister, which explains the problem much more effectively: »

Fantasy vs. Reality In November

Featured image As they gear up for November’s Congressional election, the Democrats are peddling a fantasy view of events in America: Trump the racist, Trump the trampler on the First Amendment, Trump the warmonger (or something), Trump-Russia collusion, the Republicans as servants of the rich. To an even greater degree than usual, this election will feature a head-on collision between such fantasies and reality. The reality is that the Trump administration’s policies »

Will 2018 Resemble 2010?

Featured image The Democrats need a pickup of only 24 seats, net, to take control of the House of Representatives. That isn’t very many, by historical standards, and the Dems have been supremely confident that as of January 2019, Nancy Pelosi will once again be Speaker of the House. The Democrats see a wave election coming–or they did, anyway, until the generic preference polls began to tighten following passage of the GOP »