2018 Election

Poll: GOP and Trump are no longer under water

Featured image There’s more good polling news for Republicans today — the best yet in this cycle. A Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that the GOP has pulled, in effect, level with the Dems in the generic congressional poll. 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. President Trump’s numbers have also improved dramatically, according to »

Another Sign That November Won’t Be a Democrat Sweep

Featured image I explained here why I don’t think that 2018 will be a Democratic blowout along the lines that 2010, for example, was for Republicans. Today more evidence that November won’t be a walk in the park for Democrats came from Minnesota, where 8th District representative Rick Nolan announced that he will not seek re-election: U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan said Friday that he will not run for re-election this year, an »

Republican electoral prospects brighten

Featured image Before I left for a week in the beautiful Dominican Republic, I had the sense that GOP prospects for this year’s elections were on the upswing. I return to find there’s no doubt about it. In December, the Democrats held a 15 point lead in a Monmouth poll that asked the “generic” question of whether respondents are more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their own »

Today’s Classroom Lesson: Demystifying Opinion Polls

Featured image Between now and November we’ll be awash in opinion polls, and partisans on both sides will be deploying them chiefly as a tactic of vote suppression—trying to discourage the other side that all is lost. Now, I could give a classroom style treatise here on the tricks and defects of opinion polling, or I could just enlist another scene from Yes, Prime Minister, which explains the problem much more effectively: »

Fantasy vs. Reality In November

Featured image As they gear up for November’s Congressional election, the Democrats are peddling a fantasy view of events in America: Trump the racist, Trump the trampler on the First Amendment, Trump the warmonger (or something), Trump-Russia collusion, the Republicans as servants of the rich. To an even greater degree than usual, this election will feature a head-on collision between such fantasies and reality. The reality is that the Trump administration’s policies »

Will 2018 Resemble 2010?

Featured image The Democrats need a pickup of only 24 seats, net, to take control of the House of Representatives. That isn’t very many, by historical standards, and the Dems have been supremely confident that as of January 2019, Nancy Pelosi will once again be Speaker of the House. The Democrats see a wave election coming–or they did, anyway, until the generic preference polls began to tighten following passage of the GOP »

A Turning Point for Trump In Sight?

Featured image My sense is the intransigence of the Democratic “resistance” mentality is going to make this present “government shutdown” the longest ever, with unpredictable political effects at this early point. It comes amidst evidence that Trump’s position might be improving. According to the most recent CBS News poll, Trump’s overall numbers continue to be underwater. His best numbers—still below 50 percent—are for his handling of the economy and his handling of »

Has Trump Set Up An Economic Boom?

Featured image We’ve seen already the news of the growing number of companies citing the corporate tax cut as the trigger to give bonuses, raises, and announcements of significant new domestic capital investment, which is ruining the Democrats’ day. Wait till they get a load of this news, from the Wall Street Journal this morning: Less-Educated Workers See Biggest Weekly Pay Bumps Americans with only a high-school diploma are seeing faster earnings »

Will the economy save the GOP?

Featured image Joel Kotkin asks, “Can the Trump Economy Trump Trump?” In other words, will our strong economy enable Republicans to prevail electorally notwithstanding the unpopularity of President Trump? John raised this question during the session we did last week for our VIP subscribers. He recalled the time, not long ago at all, when political scientists could successfully predict the outcome of presidential races based primarily on a few economic indicators. Can »

Civil War on the Left, Part 52: Manning Versus the Man

Featured image Paul has already taken note of the Maryland Senate candidacy of Chelsea Manning, but I think we have overlooked the comic possibilities of the identity politics train wreck this might offer. To wit, from Glenn Greenwald today: . . . Manning’s opponent in the Democratic Party primary is one of the most standard, banal, typical, privileged and mediocre politicians in the U.S. Congress: Benjamin Cardin, a 74-year-old white, straight man who is »

Exciting news from Maryland

Featured image Chelsea Manning, the transgender former Army private who betrayed her (at the time, his) country by passing classified and sensitive government documents to Wikileaks, has filed to run for the U.S. Senate in Maryland. She will oppose Sen. Ben Cardin in the Democratic primary. I’m a registered Republican and therefore barred, I think, from voting in the Cardin-Manning race. Otherwise, I would vote for Cardin. He’s a standard liberal except »

Grim Tidings for the GOP Midterm

Featured image Political scientists can point to a lot of evidence from past election cycles that one early sign that a party is facing a rout at the next election is a wave of incumbent retirements. In the last two days two senior Republican House members in California have announced that they will retire this year: Darrell Issa, and Ed Royce. Issa, based near San Diego, has just barely hung on to »

Rick Santorum endorses Seth Leibsohn

Featured image Our friend Seth Leibsohn is running for Congress in Arizona’s 9th district. I don’t know much about Arizona politics, but Steve Hayward does. He says “the 9th district, centered in Maricopa County, has a fairly close partisan balance among registered voters, and thus ought to be winnable by a strong candidate like Seth.” Seth has our endorsement. More consequentially, he now has the endorsement of Rick Santorum & Patriot Voices. »

Senator Mitt Romney?

Featured image Sen. Orrin Hatch’s retirement has created a clear and possibly smooth path to the Senate for Mitt Romney. What kind of a Senator would Romney be? I think he would have been a fine president. Constrained by the GOP’s conservative base, Romney likely would have been a solidly conservative president. His mastery of detail and his administrative ability likely would have made him a successful conservative president. Administrative ability counts »

Holiday Shopping Data Illustrate Success of Trump’s Policies and Democrats’ Difficult Road

Featured image The Wall Street Journal reports on holiday shopping: Fueled by high consumer confidence and a robust job market, U.S. retail sales in the holiday period rose at their best pace since 2011, according to MastercardSpendingPulse, which tracks both online and in-store spending. Sales, excluding automobiles, rose 4.9% from Nov. 1 through Christmas Eve, compared with a 3.7% gain in the same period last year. *** Unlike in past years, when »

What if Americans end up really liking the tax cuts?

Featured image As the Senate was about to pass the tax reform bill earlier this week, protesters interrupted the proceedings with chants like “Kill the bill, don’t kill us.” The protests were so loud that Vice President Pence had to stop the process a few times. Protesters singled out Sen. Jeff Flake, whom they hoped would vote “no.” A protester yelled: “Have you no decency, have you no shame?” This was probably »

Jones Wins: Al Franken Hardest Hit

Featured image I might as well get into the “hot take” game. Democrats and their media echo chamber will openly celebrate Doug Jones’s narrow win in Alabama, but inside I’ll bet they are actually disappointed. There is little chance they can hold this seat in 2020 (unless Republicans nominate Roy Moore again). Meanwhile, Jones deprives them of their favorite talking point that Republicans are all drooling knuckle-dragging morons. Worse, it means Al »