Iowa caucuses

Who won the Iowa caucuses? We still don’t know

Featured image 97 percent of Iowa’s roughly 1,700 precincts have now reported, but we still don’t know who won the caucuses that were held on Monday. The latest results show Bernie Sanders ahead of Pete Buttigieg in the raw vote count by 2,500 votes. However, Buttigieg leads Sanders in the delegate count, 26.2 percent to 26.1 percent. I take it that Sanders’s vote margin is less likely than Buttigieg’s delegate lead to »

Finally, meaningful Iowa results

Featured image Approximately 24 hours after the Iowa caucuses began, we finally know who did well and who didn’t. Pete Buttigieg did well. With about two-thirds of the vote counted, he leads with 27 percent. Bernie Sanders did pretty well. He’s second to Buttigieg at 25 percent. Sanders apparently turned out significantly more caucus-goers than Buttigieg did. But the former mayor picked up significantly more support in the second round of caucusing, »

Deferred gratification

Featured image The epic failure of the Iowa Democratic party to release vote totals last night, or even reliably to count votes, constitutes a huge embarrassment. But to say, as I heard commentators opine last night, that this failure largely negates the impact of the Iowa caucuses is incorrect, in my view. The failure might have wrecked these commentators’ Monday night, but the results, once released, will have an impact. If Joe »

Idled in Iowa

Featured image The meltdown in Iowa has me wondering. Did anybody really win last night? Everyone declared victory in his or her own way, yet Democrats lost. The form of the meltdown expresses the ideas they advocate. What wonders they might work if only they can seize control of our health care system. Politico’s report on the “total meltdown” offers hypothetical if counterintuitive “winners” and “losers” as no results trickled in, but »


Featured image The Super Bowl has been played, and Monday is a slow day for soccer and college basketball. So, by default, I’m following the Iowa caucuses. There’s nothing to report from Iowa yet, except for this: Entrance polling suggests that Bernie Sanders is crushing it with young voters and that Joe Biden is the clear favorite among older ones. Biden has generated little enthusiasm among the young, while the elderly seem »

Warren responds

Featured image Senator Warren didn’t do too well in the moment she was challenged by the Iowa voter about the injustice of her tuition loan forgiveness scheme. The Washington Free Beacon’s Andrew Kugle picks up Warren’s subsequent response in “CBS Anchor to Warren: Are You Saying ‘Tough Luck’ to People Who Saved for College?” “For Americans who are in that father’s position, who felt they did the right thing and you’re bailing »

Warren’s Joe the Plumber moment

Featured image We are fortunate to have video (below) of a great “Joe the Plumber” moment (as Megan Fox calls it at PJ Media) earlier this week featuring Elizabeth Warren on the campaign trail in Grimes, Iowa. The Daily Caller reports on its here and The Hill here After waiting in line to get his moment with Warren, a voter “vent[ed] frustration that her promise to wipe out student loan debt would »

An Iowa-New Hampshire double? Probably not.

Featured image I don’t think anyone worth paying attention to has a clear idea of who will win the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. However, history suggests that the same candidate will not win both. Whether because Iowa caucus goers are quirky, or because New Hampshire voters don’t like to say “ditto,” or through sheer coincidence, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, when seriously contested, usually produce two »

Warren doesn’t shake Sanders’s hand

Featured image I watched most of tonight’s Democratic debate. It was a pretty dull affair. To the extent there were fireworks, they occurred after the debate, albeit in the form of something that didn’t happen — a non-handshake. During the debate, as expected, there was an exchange between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren about the latter’s allegation that the former told her a woman couldn’t defeat President Trump. The exchange was civil »

Don’t blame Iowa for Julian Castro’s exit

Featured image Two days ago, I posted my cousin’s critique of the Iowa caucuses. His was not the standard criticism, which focuses on the lack of racial and ethnic diversity in Iowa. I would not have published analysis that hackneyed, nor would my cousin have written it. My cousin’s focus, instead, was on the undemocratic nature of the caucuses. They are difficult to participate in, and thus give disproportionate influence to people »

Voter suppression, Iowa style

Featured image Here’s a safe prediction for 2020. The Iowa Democratic caucuses will dominate the news at the end of January and beginning of February. My conservative cousin formerly from New York sees the caucuses as a “glaring example of voter suppression totally ignored by the mainstream media because it provides a boost to left wing Democrats.” He writes: The winner of the Iowa caucus has become the Democratic nominee in every »

A Klobuchar surge?

Featured image I believe there’s a market among Democrats for a presidential candidate who is not radical, who is not old and frequently confused, and who is not a straight white male. Who might that candidate be? It might have been Kamala Harris. However, she opted not to fill that lane. Now, she’s an ex-candidate for president. It might be Pete Buttigieg, except it’s not so clear that he’s non-radical. Buttigieg seemingly »

You can call me fat

Featured image Merle Gorman raised the question of Hunter Biden’s “work” on the board of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma at an Iowa town hall this past Thursday. Given Biden’s status as the Dem frontrunner at this point, it’s still worth taking a look at how Biden handled the obvious question (edited video below). Gorman prefaced the question with the familiar criticism of President Trump’s “messing around in Ukraine” and added that »

Polls: Buttigieg is ahead in Iowa

Featured image Two of the three most recent polls of Iowa Democrats flagged by Real Clear Politics show Pete Buttigieg in the lead. The most recent one, by the Des Moines Register/CNN, has him well ahead. In that survey, he leads second-place Elizabeth Warren by 25-16. In a Monmouth poll, Buttigieg edges out Joe Biden, 22-19, with Warren in third place at 18 percent. The other survey is by CBS News/YouGov. It »

Joe Biden explains

Featured image I think Steve Hayward savored the prospect of the Democratic candidate for president being asked how many genders there are when he or she confronts President Trump in a 2020 debate. Say what you will about President Trump, I’m quite sure he has the correct answer to that question nailed. We got a look at Joe Biden’s first take on an answer to the question as posed by a Turning »

How badly is Bernie burned?

Featured image Going into tonight, I thought that Bernie Sanders needed to win the Iowa caucus to sustain his long shot campaign against Hillary Clinton (absent FBI/DOJ action against Hillary). After all, Iowa is tailor-made for a Sanders-style insurgent. If Sanders couldn’t win there, where (other than in his home territory) could he win? Thus, even a five point defeat, say, would be huge blow, however heroically it could be portrayed given »

The Iowa caucuses: Who’s winning? [UPDATED (continuously)]

Featured image Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead in the Democratic caucuses. She’s up 51.5 percent to 48 percent with 36 percent of the precincts reporting. Earlier in the evening, her margin was bigger. On the Republican side, Cruz and Trump are just about even in the raw vote, with Rubio well back in third place. However, David Wasserman of FiveThirtyEight thinks that the early returns “are most likely tiny, more rural caucus »