Marco Rubio

The GOP race, two scenarios [UPDATED]

Featured image Earlier today, John laid out a plausible and optimistic scenario for how the Republican presidential race will play out. He suggested that even if Ben Carson and John Kasich do not drop out of the race, their voters will start to fall away and most of them will gravitate towards Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz (probably more to Rubio than Cruz). In this scenario, the race will become effectively a »

Gov. Haley set to endorse Marco Rubio [UPDATED]

Featured image Gov. Nikki Haley, said to be the most popular official in South Carolina, reportedly will endorse Marco Rubio at a campaign rally this evening. As endorsements go, this one is highly coveted. However, endorsements aren’t considered to have as much value as they once did. In fact, Haley endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012, only to see him lose to New Gingrich. Haley is, I think, more popular now than she »

The Fatal Three Minutes

Featured image Marco Rubio finished a highly disappointing fifth in the New Hampshire primary. Five days ago, his popularity was soaring and he looked like an almost certain second-place finisher. Then came three bad minutes in Saturday night’s debate when he was being attacked by Chris Christie, and Rubio’s momentum came to a screeching halt. This graphic showing the Real Clear Politics poll averages tells the story. Donald Trump is the blue »

Would Rubio sign an amnesty bill?

Featured image As conservatives sort through the wreckage from Marco Rubio’s close encounter with Chris Christie the other night, some are debating the question of what Rubio would do as president about illegal immigration. It’s a vitally important question and a fair one, given that Rubio has been all over the place on this issue. Kevin Williamson at NR says that anti-amnesty conservatives have nothing to fear from a President Rubio. But »

Tell me why

Featured image Tell me why no one attacked John Kasich last night. He’s leading the governors/former governors in New Hampshire, and conventional wisdom holds that only one (or at most two) governors will survive the New Hampshire primary. He’s a bona threat to finish ahead of Marco Rubio (and this was true even before last night) and Ted Cruz. If he finishes a close second, he could even hurt Trump going forward. »

Chris Christie’s suicide mission may make this a good night for Trump and Kasich [With Comment by John]

Featured image The first portion of tonight’s GOP debate, as well as the post-debate coverage, was dominated by the clash between Chris Christie and Marco Rubio. Christie assailed Rubio for not having governing experience and compared him to Barack Obama, who was also a first-term Senator when he ran for president. In addition, Christie criticized Rubio for allegedly relying on 25-second sound bites. Rubio responded by saying, in effect, that Obama’s problem »

Polls show Rubio surging in New Hampshire [UPDATED: the Romney factor] [UPDATED AGAIN]

Featured image Marco Rubio has been criticized, perhaps with some justification, for acting on Monday night almost as if he won the Iowa caucuses, rather than finishing third. But polling in New Hampshire (and at least one national poll) suggests that Rubio is getting the biggest bounce of any GOP candidate out of Iowa. The New Hampshire polls tell conflicting stories, however, on the crucial question of how close Rubio (and Ted »

Rubio takes lead in the endorsement sweepstakes

Featured image I wrote here about the endorsement sweepstakes in the GOP nomination battle. I relied on FiveThirtyEight’s endorsement scorecard, which awards 10 points for endorsements by governors, 5 points for endorsements by U.S. senators, and 1 point for endorsements by U.S. representatives. At the time of my post, January 25, Jeb Bush was in the lead with 51 points. He was followed by Marco Rubio (43), Chris Christie (26), Mike Huckabee »

Clinton’s unpopularity with young voters offers GOP an opening [With Comment by John]

Featured image Hillary Clinton has a major problem with young voters. According to the Washington Post, Sanders won handily over Clinton in Iowa with voters under the age of 45. And voters under the age of 30 supported Sanders to the tune of 84 percent. We can’t assume that young Sanders voters will support the Republican nominee over Clinton, but some of them might stay home. Moreover, it’s fair to suppose that »

About Rubio, my take

Featured image In his “About Rubio” post, Steve correctly says that I’m skeptical about Marco Rubio because of his dubious dealings with Democrats on immigration and the egregiously bad “Gang of Eight” bill. I’m also not convinced that Rubio is fully ready to be president, but the same reservation applies to Ted Cruz and Donald Trump (who I don’t think will ever be ready). In defense of Rubio, Steve states that Rubio »

About Rubio [with comment by Paul]

Featured image Up to this point I’ve left the Rubio beat to John, who has endorsed him, and Paul, who I think remains skeptical or opposed because of his dubious dealings with Democrats on immigration and the egregiously bad “Gang of Eight” bill. [Paul is welcome to confirm or refine this here if he wants.] My own sense of things is that Rubio knows he screwed up big time on immigration, and »

More Iowa Notes

Featured image The rest of the gang has already weighed in with useful thoughts, but to paraphrase the great political philosopher Marx (Groucho), if you don’t like these thoughts, we have others! Scott and others have mentioned the significance of Cruz winning while opposing Iowa’s sacrosanct ethanol madness. I recall meeting, some years ago, with a presidential candidate before his announcement to talk about energy policy, and when I suggested that the »

Three tickets out of Iowa

Featured image “Three tickets out of Iowa.” It sounds like a movie starring, say, Glenn Ford, Henry Fonda (or Peter in the remake), and Van Heflin. Actually, it’s the conventional wisdom regarding Iowa caucuses. When there’s a large field, Iowa punches three candidates’ ticket to New Hampshire and beyond, or so they say. The conventional wisdom happens to hold up well this year. As John says, after Iowa it looks like a »

Des Moines Register poll shows Trump and Clinton leading

Featured image The final Des Moines Register poll, released over the weekend, shows Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa. He has 28 percent support compared to 23 percent for Ted Cruz and 15 percent for Marco Rubio. Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by a narrow 45-42 tally. If this poll accurately predicts the outcome, it won’t be a happy night for me. I’m rooting for Sanders and either »

Live from Council Bluffs, it’s Marco Rubio

Featured image Nebraska attorney David Begley continues to file his reports on the appearances of the presidential candidates in Iowa as tomorrow night’s caucuses approach. Yesterday he caught up with Marco Rubio in Council Bluffs. This is Dave’s report: Marco Rubio appears to be gaining in Iowa right now. I saw it in the standing room only audience in Council Bluffs: lots of wild applause, a few laughs, and a big crowd »

Rubio Bags the Crom Endorsement

Featured image Michael Cromartie (“the Crom” to me for 30 years now) is the most significant person in Washington DC that you’ve never heard of. And that’s just the way he likes it. Not because he’s a backroom K Street wire puller from the shadows of House of Cards. To the contrary: he is the rarest thing you can find in Washington: a truly honest broker; a person of faith, understated on »

Jeb Bush’s strange defense of his immigration flip-flop

Featured image Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio weren’t the only candidates exposed in last night’s debate as having changed their position on immigration reform. Rubio pointed out that Jeb Bush has also changed his. Bush’s current position, and the one set forth in a book he wrote (with an eye, surely, towards a presidential run) is that illegal immigrants should have a path to legalization but not to citizenship. But when Sen. »