New Hampshire primary

N.H. primary: Sanders holds narrow lead over Buttigieg; Warren and Biden crater

Featured image With about 80 percent of the New Hampshire vote counted, Bernie Sanders has a narrow lead over Pete Buttigieg, 26 percent to 24 percent. Amy Klobuchar is a solid third with 20 percent. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden have cratered. Both are below 10 percent, with Warren edging out Biden for fourth place by a little more than 1 percentage point. The top stories are obvious. Sanders and Buttigieg have »

Is Klobuchar closing strong in New Hampshire?

Featured image Amy Klobuchar had a strong debate performance last week in New Hampshire. Although I had written her off after her lackluster showing in Iowa, it seemed to me that, with the excellent debate and endorsements from three leading New Hampshire newspapers, Klobuchar “might make a surprisingly good run in New Hampshire.” However, I concluded that “a top three finish seems out of reach.” Today, as New Hampshire votes, a top »

Whence a lyin’ dog-faced pony soldier?

Featured image Joe Biden did the weird Joe Biden thing to the young lady in Hampton, New Hampshire who asked him an honest question about his poor performance in the Iowa caucuses. He acknowledged it was a good question. He asked her if she had ever attended a caucus. Relevance to her question? Not entirely apparent. When the young lady answered in the affirmative, Biden called her a lyin’ dog-faced pony soldier »

An Iowa-New Hampshire double? Probably not.

Featured image I don’t think anyone worth paying attention to has a clear idea of who will win the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. However, history suggests that the same candidate will not win both. Whether because Iowa caucus goers are quirky, or because New Hampshire voters don’t like to say “ditto,” or through sheer coincidence, the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, when seriously contested, usually produce two »

Poll: Elizabeth Warren lags in New Hampshire

Featured image At Hot Air, Allahpundit calls attention to a poll of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire taken by the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Joe Biden comes in first with 28 percent support. Bernie Sanders follows Biden with 20 percent. After that, it’s Kamala Harris (14 percent) and Elizabeth Warren (9 percent). What do Biden and Sanders have in common? Not ideology. They are on opposite ends of the Democrats’ ideological »

After last night

Featured image I offer the following observations and speculations in the spirit of inquiry following the results in the New Hampshire primary last night. I acknowledge that we are in the realm of opinion and that I may well be mistaken. These are my thoughts. Let me begin, however, in the realm of fact. New Hampshire runs an open primary with independents allowed to vote in the party of their choice. Turnout »

Trump wins and probably wins big [updated continuously]

Featured image The networks have called Donald Trump the winner on the Republican side, and it looks like the margin of victory will be large. Currently, John Kasich, who is in second place, has only half of Trump’s vote total. It’s a good win for Trump, but how good? Around the time of the Iowa primary, I speculated that Trump needs at least one-third of the vote in the early contests to »

A “good” night for Kasich?

Featured image Henry Enten at FiveThirtyEight writes: If you’re trying to read the tea leaves in the early results, you can already see how tonight could be a good one for John Kasich. He’s doing about as well as Jon Huntsman did in Lebanon in the western part of the state. If he can match Huntsman’s numbers in other places, it will probably be good enough for 17 percent statewide and second »

A tough night for Hillary [updated continuously]

Featured image As I write this, we’re about half an hour away from getting real election returns from New Hampshire. In the meantime, Fox News has put out some tantalizing exit poll results on the Democratic side. Almost one-third of voters in the Democratic primary told Fox that honesty/trustworthiness is the most important quality they’re looking for. Sanders won this group with more than 90 percent support. “Young” voters (I assume Fox »

How will Jeb do tomorrow? (and why it matters)

Featured image New Hampshire voters will answer several potentially consequential questions tomorrow: How badly will Sanders beat Clinton; what will Trump’s margin of victory be; what price (if any) will Rubio pay for repetition in debating? For me, though, the biggest question is: How well will Jeb Bush do? Here’s why. There has been much speculation about the degree of winnowing the Republican field will undergo after New Hampshire. In particular, how »