Poll

What do you mean “we,” lefty

Featured image Leaders of the National Lawyers Guild in San Francisco have written an opinion piece for the San Francisco Chronicle titled “We are all Antifa.” The truth of the statement depends on the meaning of “we.” If the authors mean the National Lawyers Guild, their statement is accurate. This outfit is, and always has been, a far left organization. As Jesse Rigsby wrote in FrontPage Magazine back in 2003: The National »

A middle class revival

Featured image This column by Robert Samuelson is called “The Quiet Comeback of the Middle Class.” It presents a picture of contemporary America at variance from the narrative of both the left and the Trumpians, at least in their 2016 incarnation. Samuelson cites a Gallup poll from June of this year in which 62 percent of Americans said they are in the middle or upper middle class, while only 36 percent classified »

Poll: 35 percent of Washingtonians have protested Trump

Featured image Based on a poll it conducted, the Washington Post reports that more than 1 in 3 residents of Washington, D.C. has marched in protest of President Trump. I’m not sure I believe the number is quite that high. The Post also reports that high-income white residents are the most likely to have participated in the protests. I definitely believe that. The Post found that 53 percent of white D.C. residents »

From Fake News to Fake Polls

Featured image The media blob is making much of a Washington Post/ABC News poll that finds the public by a 2 to 1 margin opposes President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Accord: Most Americans oppose President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, with a majority saying the move will damage the United States’ global leadership, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Opposition to Trump’s decision outpaces »

What is Trump’s approval rating?

Featured image President Trump’s current approval rating isn’t very important right now (though it may be to President Trump), but all of us would like to know what that rating is. In its latest survey, Rasmussen puts the approval number at 51 percent, with 49 percent disapproving. This is Trump’s best showing in a Rasmussen poll since early March. However, Trump’s approval rating has hovered at close to 50 percent for the »

American attitudes to Jews

Featured image It is somehow reported as big news that President Trump denounced anti-Semitism yesterday. Was his attitude seriously in doubt? He is a proud supporter of Israel and vocal friend of Benjamin Netanyahu. His appointed ambassador to the United Nations is Nikki Haley, who is trying to right wrongs against Israel committed by the United Nations and, ahem, the Obama administration. His daughter converted to Judaism. He has Jewish grandchildren. In »

About that Quinnipiac Poll

Featured image The results of the Quinnipiac Poll in which I was surveyed last week have been posted here. Quinnipiac summarizes the results at the top of the linked page and provides the numbers below. Quinnipiac reports that it found 899 registered voters to respond to the survey. Quinnipiac adjusted the poll results according to its secret sauce. The survey used “statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample »

A call from Quinnipiac

Featured image I got a call on my cell phone from the Quinnipiac University Poll on Thursday evening. The questions were numerous and intrusive. I may have made a mistake in choosing to respond, but I stuck with the call because I wanted to hear what was being asked and because I thought I might come away with something of interest for Power Line readers. I asked whether the poll was being »

Poll: Republican voters less hostile to Putin these days

Featured image In July 2014, Vladimir Putin’s net favorability rating among Republicans was minus 64 points, according to an Economist/YouGov poll (reported by the Washington Post). Now, according to the same source, it is only minus 16. What has happened in the past two and half years that might affect how one views Putin? I can think of three things. First, Putin’s forces have taken a major role in perpetrating the atrocity »

Princeton Election Consortium: Clinton had a 99 percent probability of winning [With Comment by John]

Featured image On the eve of the 2012 election, I viewed the Obama-Romney as a toss-up that the challenger would, slightly more likely than not, win. After all, the polls showed the president up by only around 1 point nationally and late deciders are thought generally to break against the incumbent. When I expressed this view to members of the smart set — both just before and just after the election — »

Is Virginia in play?

Featured image Late last month I tuned my car radio to the local news station hoping for a sports update. Instead, Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe was doing what I think is a weekly show. He was talking about Donald Trump’s advertising in Virginia. The combative McAuliffe said he hopes Trump pours plenty of money into the Commonwealth because it will all be wasted. Soon thereafter, though, Clinton began advertising in Northern Virginia. »

Good news from Wisconsin and Indiana

Featured image Hillary Clinton’s woes and Donald Trump’s revival figure to be good news for “down ballot” Republican candidates. I don’t think the House was ever going to flip, but not long ago the Senate seemed very likely to. Now, perhaps, the GOP will maintain control. I want to focus on two races — one that we have covered extensively and one I’m not sure we have discussed at all. In Wisconsin, »

Trump’s prospects

Featured image Earlier today, in a piece called “The post-Trump GOP,” I said I’m convinced that Hillary Clinton will be elected president. I didn’t mean to suggest that Trump has no chance of winning. I’m convinced that the Washington Redskins won’t win the Super Bowl this year, but they have some chance of winning it. What is the likelihood that Trump will defeat Clinton? The folks at FiveThirtyEight say it’s about 15 »

What’s Up With the Polls?

Featured image There’s quite a variance in the polling numbers for Trump and Hillary Clinton, complicated by the fact that some polls only offer a choice between the two major party candidates, and ignore Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Some polls have Hillary leading by as much as 15 points, while the Los Angeles Times poll continues to show Trump leading or virtually tied. (The methodology of the Times »

Two polls have Clinton winning the debate

Featured image In a CNN poll of debate-watchers, 62 percent thought Clinton won the debate compared to 27 percent for Trump — a 35-point margin. According to Nate Silver, that’s the third-widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll, which date back to 1984. Only a 1992 debate between Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush and the first Obama-Romney debate were viewed as more one-sided. Meanwhile, a PPP poll had »

Bogus allegations of “racism” undermine honest policy debate

Featured image Yesterday, Steve discussed a Reuters/Ipsos poll that measured the views of Americans towards blacks. Here’s how Slate described the results of the poll: A significant slice of Americans expressed racist views against blacks, and those who identify as Donald Trump supporters are more likely to fall into that group, though Hillary Clinton supporters are definitely there too. The characterization of “racism” is Slate’s (per author Josh Voorhees), not Reuters’s. It’s »

Our undecided electorate

Featured image I think everyone recognizes that the presidential race has tightened considerably in the past two weeks. Hillary Clinton’s national lead is down to around 3 points and, as one would expect, the swing states are pretty consistent with the national margin. But here’s something I think many people don’t realize or haven’t focused on. Around 20 percent of the electorate is either undecided or saying it will vote for someone »