Poll
May 7, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Congressional Democrats are resisting President Trump with every fiber of their being. The Democratic mainstream media is also dead set against the president. But many ordinary Democratic voters appear to be keeping an open mind, and Trump is gaining a grudging respect from some of them. That, at least, is the finding of a new poll from CNN. Trump isn’t exactly killing it in the CNN poll. It shows him
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May 6, 2018 — John Hinderaker
Via InstaPundit, Friday’s Reuters-Ipsos poll shows significant movement toward President Trump and the GOP, with the president’s approval rating among registered voters at 49% and Democrats +5 on the generic ballot. The Ipsos people caution that this week’s poll is probably an outlier: This week’s Reuters/Ipsos Core Political release presents something of an outlier of our trend. Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this
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May 2, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
President Trump is sporting some of the best polling numbers of his presidency. His Real Clear Politics average is 43.5 percent approve and 52.9 disapprove. Moreover, the three polls taken at the very end of April have him minus three (Monmouth), minus nine (Economist/YouGov), and even (Rasmussen). The Monmouth poll has Trump down 31-57 with voters in the 18-34 age group and basically even with voters over age-34. Trump’s unpopularity
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April 30, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows that the edge Democrats have over Republicans with this group has slipped significantly in the past two years. Two years ago, 55 percent of registered voters ages 18 to 34 supported Democrats for Congress, while only 27 percent supported Republicans. Now, Democratic
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April 30, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
“Drain The Swamp” was an important rallying cry of the Trump campaign. But does it still resonate a year-and-a-half after the 2016 election? It does. So finds a poll commissioned by Ear to the Ground and conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The poll (of 1,000 likely voters) found that 55 percent of Americans are “concerned” or “very concerned” about “the Swamp,” with 36 percent very concerned. 59 percent of those
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April 19, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
They say that no one likes a loser. I don’t think that’s true in sports, where winning teams seem less liked than losing ones. When I coached youth basketball, I was more popular the year my team went 8-8 than the year we were 16-0. In politics, though, the saying generally holds true. One reason is probably that so many people have so much riding on a politician’s success. Unlike
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March 19, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Andrew Hartman, a professor of history at Illinois State University, argues that there is no campus free speech problem. He claims that college campuses are more tolerant than ever. The latter claim may be true if you’re a transgender illegal immigrant advocating communism. But what is Hartman’s evidence that conservatives don’t have a problem speaking freely and hearing others express conservative views on campus? He presents precious little. He notes
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March 8, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Last year at this time, many Republicans were optimistic about the opportunity to pick up enough Senate seats in 2018 to approach, or maybe even reach, a filibuster-proof majority — i.e. 60 seats. After all, ten seats held by Democrats in states carried by President Trump would be in play. By the end of the year, however, many Republicans were questioning whether the GOP could pick up enough seats to
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February 14, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
There’s more good polling news for Republicans today — the best yet in this cycle. A Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that the GOP has pulled, in effect, level with the Dems in the generic congressional poll. 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. President Trump’s numbers have also improved dramatically, according to
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February 5, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Before I left for a week in the beautiful Dominican Republic, I had the sense that GOP prospects for this year’s elections were on the upswing. I return to find there’s no doubt about it. In December, the Democrats held a 15 point lead in a Monmouth poll that asked the “generic” question of whether respondents are more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate in their own
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January 24, 2018 — Steven Hayward
Between now and November we’ll be awash in opinion polls, and partisans on both sides will be deploying them chiefly as a tactic of vote suppression —trying to discourage the other side that all is lost. Now, I could give a classroom style treatise here on the tricks and defects of opinion polling, or I could just enlist another scene from Yes, Prime Minister, which explains the problem much more effectively:
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January 21, 2018 — Steven Hayward
My sense is the intransigence of the Democratic “resistance” mentality is going to make this present “government shutdown” the longest ever, with unpredictable political effects at this early point. It comes amidst evidence that Trump’s position might be improving. According to the most recent CBS News poll, Trump’s overall numbers continue to be underwater. His best numbers—still below 50 percent—are for his handling of the economy and his handling of
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January 20, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Last night, in considering which party will be blamed the most for a sustained partial government shutdown, I mentioned two polls. The first, by the Washington Post, found that, by a 20-point margin, more Americans will blame President Trump and Republicans than Democrats. This, I believe, is similar to what most polls are showing, even though it was the Dems who voted to defeat a bill that would have kept
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December 28, 2017 — Paul Mirengoff
According to a new survey, more Minnesotans believe Al Franken should remain in the Senate than think he should resign. Half of the voters surveyed think Franken should not resign. Only 42 percent think he should. 60 percent say Franken should have waited until the Senate Ethics Committee investigated his behavior before making a decision whether to stay or go. The poll was conducted by PPP, a Democratic polling firm.
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December 16, 2017 — Paul Mirengoff
A new survey suggests they are. The survey was conducted by American Culture & Faith Institute. Its report can be found here. The study identified certain propositions that those surveyed believe are an accurate description of what it means to be patriotic. It then determined the extent to which conservatives and liberals view each proposition as accurately describing patriotism. Below are the six propositions that at least 70 percent of
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November 22, 2017 — Steven Hayward
So, who is it going to be today? I think we need a poll where everyone can vote his or her preferences/predictions:
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October 17, 2017 — Paul Mirengoff
The Virginia gubernatorial election always draws attention because (1) it occurs during the barren electoral year that follows presidential races and (2) it occurs in a swing state, albeit one that has been trending Democrat. Thus, fairly or not, the race typically is viewed as portentous for the party that loses. This year, the Democratic candidate is Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam. The Republican candidate is Ed Gillespie, former chair of
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