Poll

Trump versus Lincoln: A tentative second look [with comment by Paul]

Featured image If I were one of the 1500 “US adult citizens” willing to sit for the not insubstantial amount of time it must have taken respondents to fill out The Economist/YouGov November 24-November 26 poll, I would have been among the 410 or so who self-identified as Republicans and among the 437 or so who self-identified as 2016 Trump voters in response to several of the poll’s questions (if I’m reading »

Poll: Most Republicans consider Trump a better president than Lincoln

Featured image A new poll by YouGov asked who is the better president, Abraham Lincoln or Donald Trump. 53 percent of the Republicans polled selected Trump. At Hot Air, Allahpundit, a frequent critic of President Trump, argues that there’s “less to this poll than meets the eye,” and that the poll isn’t really strong evidence of a Trump cult of personality. I don’t buy the argument. A result this absurd reeks of »

Impeaching Trump not popular in swing states

Featured image There has been a fair amount of national polling on the question of whether President Trump should be impeached and removed. It tends to show a plurality favoring these remedies. However, according to Harry Enten, impeachment is not popular in key swing states like Wisconsin. He cites a new Marquette University poll from Wisconsin that finds 44 percent of voters wanting Trump to be impeached and removed from office, and »

Joe Biden, dead man running?

Featured image People more politically astute than I am say that Joe Biden has little chance of winning the Democratic nomination. In their view, Biden is a paper tiger, sort of like Jeb Bush in 2016 and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. In short, he’s a dead man walking. But Bush and Giuliani were not leading in the polls by this time in their unsuccessful presidential runs. By contrast, a new CNN poll »

Trump Bounces Back

Featured image I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down. In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53% »

The polling on impeachment

Featured image Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics offers five observations about the politics of impeaching President Trump. The entire piece is worth reading, especially Trende’s comments about the early polling on impeachment. William Galston, a veteran center-left operative, also considers the polls. He sees them as counseling against impeachment. However, his Wall Street Journal column includes this finding from a Quinnipiac survey: Fifty-two percent of voters, including 54% of independents, believe »

Poll: Trump approval rating at 50 percent

Featured image The latest survey by Rasmussen finds that President Trump’s approval rating is 50 percent. 49 percent disapprove. Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters. Kyle Smith notes that Rasmussen consistently finds Trump’s approval rating to be higher than other pollsters do. However, Smith also says that other pollsters find Trump’s approval rating to be on the rise: He’s at 47 percent according to The Hill, 44 percent with Reuters, 44 percent with »

Polls: Biden leads by double digits

Featured image Earlier this week, a Monmouth poll caused quite a stir by showing, in effect, a three-way tie for the lead in the Democratic presidential race among Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. We noted, however, that Monmouth surveyed fewer than 300 people and that its results appeared to be an outlier. Five more recent polls confirm this assessment: Quinnipiac: Biden 32, Warren 19, Sanders 15 Emerson: Biden 31, Sanders »

Poll: Kamala Harris is sinking

Featured image A new poll from CNN finds that Kamala Harris is supported by only 5 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. That’s down 12 points from less than two months ago. I knew Kamala Harris would lose ground after the last debate, but I didn’t expect anything nearly this dramatic. Biden is well on top according CNN’s poll. He comes in at 29 percent. I’m sure he’d like to be 10 »

Trump “not happy” with Fox News because its polls show him losing

Featured image President Trump lashed out at Fox News after its polling showed him losing to all four major Democratic presidential candidates. “There’s something going on at Fox News,” Trump said, ominously. Trump even appeared to threaten Fox News. He noted that he controls which networks will host the presidential debates next year. He seemed to be saying that if Fox News doesn’t treat him more favorably, it might be shut out »

After the debates, Democratic race not shaken, but slightly stirred

Featured image After last week’s Democratic debates, I predicted that the face-offs wouldn’t alter the race much, but that Elizabeth Warren might get a bounce and Kamala Harris would take a slight hit. I also said that Marianne Williamson’s position would not improve significantly, notwithstanding all of the Google searches that her new age preaching generated. Now we have a survey taken during the days following the debate. The poll, by Quinnipiac, »

Mexicans favor deporting illegal immigrants. Are they racist?

Featured image A recent survey by Washington Post/Reforma of Mexican adults finds that they are deeply frustrated with the immigrants who have swarmed into their country from Central America. More than 60 percent of those surveyed consider the illegal immigrants a burden on their country because they take jobs and benefits that should belong to Mexicans. 55 percent say they favor deporting illegal immigrants to their country of origin. 33 percent favor »

Polls gone wild

Featured image They say it’s still too early to put much stock in polling of the Democratic presidential field. That’s probably true. Another reason not to put much stock in these polls is that they are all over the place. Two post-debate polls show that Joe Biden has lost nearly all of early lead and that Bernie Sanders has also faded. The beneficiaries are two female candidates — Kamala Harris and Elizabeth »

The state of the race after the Dem debates

Featured image How did the Democratic debates affect the candidates’ standing in the polls? The early returns indicate that, as expected, Kamala Harris has surged. Her gains have come in small doses at the expense of most of the other candidates. The only poll I’ve been able to find in which all of the responses appear to have been obtained after both debates is this one from Scott Rasmussen/HarrisX. It finds that »

The Prospects for Trump, 18 Months Out

Featured image Right now if I had to drop a wager, I’d bet on Trump’s re-election next year. Yes, his overall approval rating remains below 50 percent in most surveys (though stand by on this), but Obama’s approval rating was below 50 percent for much of his first term, and he was re-elected anyway. Moreover, Trump’s highest approval ratings are for his handling of the economy, where he reaches 60 percent in »

Poll: Government and immigration worry Americans most

Featured image A Gallup poll from earlier this month found that Americans consider the government and immigration to be the most important problems facing the U.S. 23 percent of respondents named the government/poor leadership, while 21 percent named immigration. Nothing else came close. Health care was a distant third at 7 percent, followed closely by race relations (6 percent) and (at 5 percent each) the economy, poverty-hunger-homelessness, and unifying the country. “Government/poor »

Poll: Buttigieg is third in Iowa

Featured image Monmouth University is out with a poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. There are no surprises at the very top. Joe Biden leads with a hefty 27 percent and Bernie Sanders is next with 16 percent. These are the two best known members of the likely field and they are prime representatives of the Party’s two wings — establishment and hard-leftist. In third place, though, stands a relative unknown »