Poll
August 20, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Last month, I wrote about a poll that found Sen. Joe Manchin to be a shoe-in for reelection if he votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, but in for an extremely close race if he doesn’t. According to the survey, taken by the Trafalgar Group, West Virginia voters favor Manchin over Republican Patrick Morrisey by 29 points if Manchin votes for confirmation, but by only two points (within the margin of
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August 4, 2018 — John Hinderaker
Via Glenn Reynolds, a potential earthquake in the polling numbers: #ICYMI: From yesterday: Today’s @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 29% This time last year: 15% https://t.co/mazBCW77nY @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/xLYuPuFbLX — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 3, 2018 If this trend continues, the Democratic Party is, to put it politely, screwed. Which makes me wonder: over the next few years, will Candace Owens be the most important person in America?
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July 23, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
In a report that should come as news to no one, the Washington Post informs us: [P]ublic reaction nationally [to the Helsinki summit] appears more muted than in Washington, where Trump faced withering bipartisan criticism for appearing to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies at a July 16 news conference in Helsinki. Imagine that. For the record, Trump did not appear to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies.
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July 11, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
How many Democratic Senators will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh? I suspect the answer depends on how many Republican Senators will. If Republican Senators don’t break ranks, the votes of their Democratic colleagues won’t matter. In that event, a few Democrats will probably break ranks and support the nominee in order to enhance their re-election prospects. But if it requires Democratic votes to confirm Kavanaugh, I don’t think any Democrats
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July 4, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and The Harris Poll places President Trump’s approval rating at 47 percent. That’s the highest the number has been in more than a year, though it isn’t great. But Trump’s approval rating on key issues and subject areas may be more consequential than his general approval rating. Why? Because if Americans like the job he’s doing on,
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July 4, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Gallup conducts an annual poll on American patriotism. Participants are asked how proud, if at all, they are to be Americans. This year’s poll found a low ebb in patriotism, with 47 percent of Americans checking the “extremely proud” box. That’s down from a high of 70 percent in 2003. Democrats, liberals, college graduates, and people ages 18 to 29 are the least proud to be American. Only 32 percent
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June 29, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A poll by YouGov shows that half of Democrats think it was “fair” to kick Sarah Sanders out of that restaurant in Lexington, Virginia. Only a third of Dems think it was unfair. These numbers are, within a one percentage point, the reverse of what Americans as a whole believe about the incident. No wonder the Democratic establishment frets about the unhinged left. Arguably, it should be freaking out. When
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June 22, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll conducted by CNN finds that only 41 percent of Americans approve of Robert Mueller’s handling of the Russia investigation. 39 percent disapprove. 1,012 people participated in the survey. At the start of the year, 47 percent approved of Mueller’s handling and only 33 percent disapproved. As recently as early May, the split was 44-38 in Mueller’s favor. An investigation is not a popularity contest. Nor does low
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June 20, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Earlier this evening John wrote: [T]he fundamental reality is that Democrats are in favor of illegal immigration, and Republicans are against it. The GOP wins that one every time. I agree with John on both counts. However, on the issue of amnesty for illegal immigrants Republicans are divided. Being for amnesty is not the same thing as being for illegal immigration. However, amnesty encourages illegal immigration. Thus, if you’re against
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May 7, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Congressional Democrats are resisting President Trump with every fiber of their being. The Democratic mainstream media is also dead set against the president. But many ordinary Democratic voters appear to be keeping an open mind, and Trump is gaining a grudging respect from some of them. That, at least, is the finding of a new poll from CNN. Trump isn’t exactly killing it in the CNN poll. It shows him
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May 6, 2018 — John Hinderaker
Via InstaPundit, Friday’s Reuters-Ipsos poll shows significant movement toward President Trump and the GOP, with the president’s approval rating among registered voters at 49% and Democrats +5 on the generic ballot. The Ipsos people caution that this week’s poll is probably an outlier: This week’s Reuters/Ipsos Core Political release presents something of an outlier of our trend. Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this
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May 2, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
President Trump is sporting some of the best polling numbers of his presidency. His Real Clear Politics average is 43.5 percent approve and 52.9 disapprove. Moreover, the three polls taken at the very end of April have him minus three (Monmouth), minus nine (Economist/YouGov), and even (Rasmussen). The Monmouth poll has Trump down 31-57 with voters in the 18-34 age group and basically even with voters over age-34. Trump’s unpopularity
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April 30, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows that the edge Democrats have over Republicans with this group has slipped significantly in the past two years. Two years ago, 55 percent of registered voters ages 18 to 34 supported Democrats for Congress, while only 27 percent supported Republicans. Now, Democratic
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April 30, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
“Drain The Swamp” was an important rallying cry of the Trump campaign. But does it still resonate a year-and-a-half after the 2016 election? It does. So finds a poll commissioned by Ear to the Ground and conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. The poll (of 1,000 likely voters) found that 55 percent of Americans are “concerned” or “very concerned” about “the Swamp,” with 36 percent very concerned. 59 percent of those
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April 19, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
They say that no one likes a loser. I don’t think that’s true in sports, where winning teams seem less liked than losing ones. When I coached youth basketball, I was more popular the year my team went 8-8 than the year we were 16-0. In politics, though, the saying generally holds true. One reason is probably that so many people have so much riding on a politician’s success. Unlike
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March 19, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Andrew Hartman, a professor of history at Illinois State University, argues that there is no campus free speech problem. He claims that college campuses are more tolerant than ever. The latter claim may be true if you’re a transgender illegal immigrant advocating communism. But what is Hartman’s evidence that conservatives don’t have a problem speaking freely and hearing others express conservative views on campus? He presents precious little. He notes
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March 8, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Last year at this time, many Republicans were optimistic about the opportunity to pick up enough Senate seats in 2018 to approach, or maybe even reach, a filibuster-proof majority — i.e. 60 seats. After all, ten seats held by Democrats in states carried by President Trump would be in play. By the end of the year, however, many Republicans were questioning whether the GOP could pick up enough seats to
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