What’s Up With the Polls?

Featured image There’s quite a variance in the polling numbers for Trump and Hillary Clinton, complicated by the fact that some polls only offer a choice between the two major party candidates, and ignore Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Some polls have Hillary leading by as much as 15 points, while the Los Angeles Times poll continues to show Trump leading or virtually tied. (The methodology of the Times »

Two polls have Clinton winning the debate

Featured image In a CNN poll of debate-watchers, 62 percent thought Clinton won the debate compared to 27 percent for Trump — a 35-point margin. According to Nate Silver, that’s the third-widest margin ever in a CNN or Gallup post-debate poll, which date back to 1984. Only a 1992 debate between Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush and the first Obama-Romney debate were viewed as more one-sided. Meanwhile, a PPP poll had »

Bogus allegations of “racism” undermine honest policy debate

Featured image Yesterday, Steve discussed a Reuters/Ipsos poll that measured the views of Americans towards blacks. Here’s how Slate described the results of the poll: A significant slice of Americans expressed racist views against blacks, and those who identify as Donald Trump supporters are more likely to fall into that group, though Hillary Clinton supporters are definitely there too. The characterization of “racism” is Slate’s (per author Josh Voorhees), not Reuters’s. It’s »

Our undecided electorate

Featured image I think everyone recognizes that the presidential race has tightened considerably in the past two weeks. Hillary Clinton’s national lead is down to around 3 points and, as one would expect, the swing states are pretty consistent with the national margin. But here’s something I think many people don’t realize or haven’t focused on. Around 20 percent of the electorate is either undecided or saying it will vote for someone »

Clinton losing support among Hispanics

Featured image Will Donald Trump’s pivot on immigration and his trip to Mexico change the way Hispanic voters view him? I don’t know. But quite apart from anything Trump is doing, Hispanics view Hillary Clinton less favorably than they did earlier this year. According to the Washington Post, a new Latino Decisions poll found that 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they will definitely vote for Clinton or were leaning towards »

Trump is gaining on Clinton

Featured image While Hillary Clinton reportedly is trying to “run out the clock,” Donald Trump is improving his status in the polls. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight puts Clinton’s national lead at 6.5 percentage points as of Sunday evening, down from 8.5 two weeks ago. He estimates Trump’s chances of winning at around one-fifth to one-fourth, also an improvement. A 6.5 point lead is still pretty substantial. However, we’re ten weeks away from »

Trump running behind GOP Senate candidates in many key states

Featured image In this post, I expressed doubt that Donald Trump’s candidacy will have a significantly adverse effect on other Republicans running this year, unless Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide (which may happen). My post prompted a reader to send me some polls through which we can compare Trump’s standing in swing states with that of the Republican Senate candidates running in them. Here are the RCP averages: Ohio Trump -2.6 »

Clinton attracting only two-thirds of Sanders voters

Featured image Harry Enten at FiveThrityEight reports that, according to poll data, Hillary Clinton has the support of only two-thirds of Bernie Sanders voters in a race that provides more than two options. In such a race, Clinton wins 69 percent of Sanders supporters in CNN’s latest poll and 65 percent in Marist’s ( YouGov has Clinton doing much worse with the Sanders crowd, but this looks like an outlier). Clinton did »

Polls show Hillary pulling away from Trump

Featured image Recent polls show that Hillary Clinton clearly in the lead over Donald Trump. She’s ahead in all four polls in the RCP list that were taken since the end of the Democratic convention. Here are the results: PPP (7/29-30) Clinton +5 (1,267 LV) CBS (7/29-31) Clinton +6 (1,131 RV) CNN (7/29-31) Clinton +9 (894 RV) YouGov (7/30-8/1) Clinton +3 (933 RV) (Note that three of the four polls are of »

Clinton seems to have gotten a bounce

Featured image It’s too early to say for sure, but recent polling suggests that Hillary Clinton received a bounce from the Democratic convention. The magnitude of her bounce is unclear but looks to be of about the same magnitude as the one Donald Trump probably received from the Republican convention. As I discussed here, heading into the Republican event, Clinton had in led four of the five most recent polls on the »

Trump gets a bounce

Featured image The Republican convention may have been “dark” and “disunited,” to use the MSM’s favorite descriptions, but its nominee appears to have gotten a “bounce” from the event. Heading into the convention, Clinton had led in four of the five latest polls in the RCP list. In polls taken since the convention began, Clinton has led only once. In the four most recently completed surveys, Trump leads by 1, 2, 3, »

The state of the race

Featured image I’m aware of four polls of the presidential race conducted since the McClatchy/Marist survey that I wrote about here. Two of them have Donald Trump ahead: Rasmussen by 7 points and USC/LA Times by 3. One poll, CBS News/New York Times, has the race dead even. The other, Economist/YouGov, has Clinton ahead by 2 points. If one throws in the McClatchy survey (Clinton +3) and the two conflicting battleground state »

Polls suggest some improvement for Trump following Comey’s remarks

Featured image In the first poll I’ve seen that was taken after James Comey’s statement regarding the Clinton email scandal, McClatchy/Marist finds Clinton leading by 3 points, 42-39. McClatchy declares this a dramatic shrinkage of Clinton’s lead, saying it’s the first time Clinton’s support has come in at less than 50 percent. As far as I can tell, however, McClatchy/Marist hasn’t polled the race since late March. (Clinton’s lead was 9 points »

Poll: Majority wanted Hillary indicted

Featured image A Rasmussen poll finds that most voters disagree with FBI Director James Comey’s decision not to seek a criminal indictment of Hillary Clinton. The poll, taken the night Comey announced the decision, finds that 37 percent of likely voters agree with the FBI’s decision, but 54 percent disagree and believe the FBI should have sought a criminal indictment. I confess to being surprised by this result. I expected the split »

This week’s polls show improvement for Trump

Featured image This week saw the release of six major surveys of a Clinton-Trump head-to-head race. Five of them have Clinton in the lead. They are IBD/TIPP (Clinton +4), Fox News (Clinton +6), PPP, a Democratic firm (Clinton +4), Quinnipiac (Clinton +2), and Reuters/Ipsos (Clinton +10). One poll, by Rasmussen, has Trump ahead (+4). Quinnipiac and Reuters had the largest sample sizes. The margin of error (MOE) for these two polls is »

Poll: Trump 37, Cruz 35 in Indiana

Featured image According to a survey by Clout Research, Donald Trump holds only a two point lead over Ted Cruz in Indiana. It’s Trump 37, Cruz 35, and Kasich 16. I’m not familiar with Clout Research. However, FiveThirtyEight, which obsesses over pollster reliability, gives good weight to Clout’s Indiana poll. In addition, my look at its polls during this election season did not indicate that Clout shouldn’t be taken seriously. For example, »

Poll: Clinton 46, Trump 43

Featured image A new GW Battleground Poll has Donald Trump within three points of Hillary Clinton. Her support is at 46 percent; his is at 43 percent. The poll is a bipartisan effort — a collaboration between Ed Goeas’s Tarrance Group (Republican) and Celinda Lake’s Lake Research Partners (Democrat). They surveyed 1,000 “registered likely voters.” The margin of error is plus/minus 3.1 percent. Other surveys show Trump considerably further behind Clinton. In »