Trouble ahead for Democrats?

Featured image Joe Biden’s average approval rating is 54 percent. That’s not bad, though it lags behind the 100-day numbers of every post-World War II president except Donald Trump. But our friend Michael Barone looks behind that number and sees worrying signs for Democrats. For one thing, Biden’s 41.6 percent disapproval number is about equal to Trump’s. And Biden’s real numbers may be worse than what the poll average shows because, as »

Poll finds Trump’s hold on Republicans strong but weakening

Featured image A new NBC poll finds (at page 19) that 50 percent of Republicans say they consider themselves mainly supporters of the GOP, while 44 percent say them consider themselves mainly supporters of Donald Trump. That’s an extraordinarily high number for Trump, to be sure. However, as Rich Lowry notes, it represents a decline. In January, respondents split evenly, 46-46. In October, it was 54 for Trump and only 38 for »

MLB’s favorability rating plummets

Featured image Major League Baseball has suffered a massive loss in popularity among Republicans due to its intervention on the side of Democrats in the political dispute over Georgia’s voting law. According to a poll by Morning Consult, MLB’s net favorability rating (the difference between the percentage of those who view the sport positively and those who view it negatively) among Republicans has dropped from 47 points to 12 points in the »

What Do the People Think?

Featured image I’m looking over the 189-page results of a recent Harvard-Harris poll of 1,778 voters conducted last week, and there are some interesting findings to pass along: Andrew Cuomo: Very Favorable/Favorable— 31%; Unfavorable/Very Unfavorable—42% (Note: the poll finished on Feb. 25, before most of the sexual harassment stories hit the media.) This question is interesting for its even split: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The 2020 election »

Donald Trump is the man Americans admire most

Featured image In a new Gallup poll, 18 percent of Americans name President Trump as the man they admire most. No one else reaches that mark. Former president Obama comes the closest at 15 percent. The sitting president usually comes in first in this poll, which Gallup has taken for decades. But throughout most of his presidency, Trump trailed Obama. (The two men tied last year.) In fact, Obama has been at »

Poll: Most Americans don’t want Pelosi to be Speaker

Featured image A new poll from Politico/Morning Consult suggests that Americans have restored Nancy Pelosi to her rightful place as the nation’s chief villain among its leaders. According to the survey, only 31 percent of voters think Pelosi should remain as Speaker of the House. 56 percent believe she shouldn’t. President Trump never had numbers this bad — not in any reliable poll. And I’m pretty sure Majority Leader McConnell would poll »

Who Were the “Shy Trump Voters”?

Featured image The biggest surprise for the mainstream media and the conventional pollsters was that there were a significant number of “shy Trump voters.” Who were these voters? One segment was non-white voters, especially Hispanics but also blacks. Trump received the largest GOP share of the non-white vote in 60 years. Liberals are spinning furiously to explain this away. More on this later on. The other group of shy Trump voters appear »

Rich Baris versus garbage media

Featured image David Rutz has compiled one of his Washington Free Beacon SUPERcuts videos (below), this one taking a look back at the landslide Biden victory foreseen by the garbage media. He notes that Republicans have gained House seats and appear poised to maintain their Senate majority, while the presidential election remains in doubt. Numerous national polls showed Biden with a double-digit lead over President Donald Trump, but they vastly underestimated Trump »

Election day thread [with rolling updates]

Featured image A commenter asked us to open an election day thread that can be updated to keep comments in one place. I’m not sure how much we will have to say before the polls close, but I wanted to kick it off with this post and invite commenters to have their say. RealClearPolitics has posted the predictive column posted at Medium by Phillip Stutts. Stutts boldly looks ahead in “Here is »

Why The Polls May Be Wrong, in One Chart

Featured image The handful of “outlier” polls, like the Democracy Institute poll out over the weekend that finds Trump tied or ahead in the popular vote, all have one thing in common: they don’t rely on traditional polling sample methods such as telephone calls, email or other internet contact. They are coming up with estimates derived from a number of techniques, mostly proprietary, that may presage the future of opinion surveys if »

Ernst ahead in Iowa

Featured image Yesterday, I noted a poll by the Des Moines Register that finds President Trump leading in Iowa by seven points. The same poll gives Sen. Joni Ernst a five point lead in her race for reelection. The Des Moines Register poll is an outlier when it comes to the presidential race. On the other hand, the track record of its pollster is outstanding. The Des Moines Register poll is less »

Dueling poll numbers and grounds for optimism

Featured image A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points, 52-42. The poll also finds that the race is somewhat tighter in 12 states the pollsters identify as “swing states.” Even so, if these poll numbers reflect the true state of the race, Trump has almost no chance of winning. On the other hand, a new poll by Democracy Institute/Sunday Express has »

Despite Democrats’ hysteria, public favored Amy Barrett’s confirmation

Featured image Democrats want to portray the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as a raw power play that was antithetical to our democracy. Yet, public opinion polls tell us that, had Justice Barrett’s nomination been put to a vote by the American people, she would have been confirmed by a margin comparable to or greater than the one provided by the Senate. The Senate confirmed Barrett by a vote of 52-48. A »

Polls: Biden has substantial lead in three key states

Featured image President Trump’s victory in 2016 was based on his wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. How does this year’s race stand in these three states? If you take polls seriously, it doesn’t look good for Trump in any of them. In Pennsylvania, every poll taken since late August shows Joe Biden in the lead. The late August poll that didn’t show this had the two candidates tied. The current RCP »

Beneath the Top Line Poll Numbers

Featured image The first thing to understand about the Democratic Party today is that its shift to the left has occurred chiefly among white Democrats. This may be the hidden weakness that delivers the election to Trump. Let’s start with a new chart from Zach Goldberg, who notes survey data from the spring about Democratic voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Texas. What it shows is revealing: white Democrats are the most »

Poll Average: Trump trails Biden by 8 points

Featured image Yesterday, I cited a WSJ/NBC poll that found President Trump 14 points behind Joe Biden. I expressed skepticism that Biden has a lead that large. Steve has since cited other polls that find the race to be close. To this mix, I want to call attention to the most recent survey I’ve seen. It’s a poll for Just the News conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 1-3. The public learned »

Trump: Still Living Rent-Free in the Heads of Liberals

Featured image So, Trump is on steroids. My first question is, how can you tell? Second, is not the phrase “Trump is on steroids” a liberal’s worst waking nightmare? I have every expectation that if he’s still on steroids at the next debate, the first time Biden pops off Trump will go all Incredible Hulk on him, and it will look something like this (which I still enjoy almost as much as »