Poll
November 10, 2020 — Steven Hayward
The biggest surprise for the mainstream media and the conventional pollsters was that there were a significant number of “shy Trump voters.” Who were these voters? One segment was non-white voters, especially Hispanics but also blacks. Trump received the largest GOP share of the non-white vote in 60 years. Liberals are spinning furiously to explain this away. More on this later on. The other group of shy Trump voters appear
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November 6, 2020 — Scott Johnson
David Rutz has compiled one of his Washington Free Beacon SUPERcuts videos (below), this one taking a look back at the landslide Biden victory foreseen by the garbage media. He notes that Republicans have gained House seats and appear poised to maintain their Senate majority, while the presidential election remains in doubt. Numerous national polls showed Biden with a double-digit lead over President Donald Trump, but they vastly underestimated Trump
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November 3, 2020 — Scott Johnson
A commenter asked us to open an election day thread that can be updated to keep comments in one place. I’m not sure how much we will have to say before the polls close, but I wanted to kick it off with this post and invite commenters to have their say. RealClearPolitics has posted the predictive column posted at Medium by Phillip Stutts. Stutts boldly looks ahead in “Here is
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November 2, 2020 — Steven Hayward
The handful of “outlier” polls, like the Democracy Institute poll out over the weekend that finds Trump tied or ahead in the popular vote, all have one thing in common: they don’t rely on traditional polling sample methods such as telephone calls, email or other internet contact. They are coming up with estimates derived from a number of techniques, mostly proprietary, that may presage the future of opinion surveys if
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November 2, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Yesterday, I noted a poll by the Des Moines Register that finds President Trump leading in Iowa by seven points. The same poll gives Sen. Joni Ernst a five point lead in her race for reelection. The Des Moines Register poll is an outlier when it comes to the presidential race. On the other hand, the track record of its pollster is outstanding. The Des Moines Register poll is less
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November 1, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that Joe Biden leads President Trump nationally by 10 points, 52-42. The poll also finds that the race is somewhat tighter in 12 states the pollsters identify as “swing states.” Even so, if these poll numbers reflect the true state of the race, Trump has almost no chance of winning. On the other hand, a new poll by Democracy Institute/Sunday Express has
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October 27, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Democrats want to portray the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett as a raw power play that was antithetical to our democracy. Yet, public opinion polls tell us that, had Justice Barrett’s nomination been put to a vote by the American people, she would have been confirmed by a margin comparable to or greater than the one provided by the Senate. The Senate confirmed Barrett by a vote of 52-48. A
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October 26, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
President Trump’s victory in 2016 was based on his wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. How does this year’s race stand in these three states? If you take polls seriously, it doesn’t look good for Trump in any of them. In Pennsylvania, every poll taken since late August shows Joe Biden in the lead. The late August poll that didn’t show this had the two candidates tied. The current RCP
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October 14, 2020 — Steven Hayward
The first thing to understand about the Democratic Party today is that its shift to the left has occurred chiefly among white Democrats. This may be the hidden weakness that delivers the election to Trump. Let’s start with a new chart from Zach Goldberg, who notes survey data from the spring about Democratic voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Texas. What it shows is revealing: white Democrats are the most
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October 5, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Yesterday, I cited a WSJ/NBC poll that found President Trump 14 points behind Joe Biden. I expressed skepticism that Biden has a lead that large. Steve has since cited other polls that find the race to be close. To this mix, I want to call attention to the most recent survey I’ve seen. It’s a poll for Just the News conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 1-3. The public learned
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October 5, 2020 — Steven Hayward
So, Trump is on steroids. My first question is, how can you tell? Second, is not the phrase “Trump is on steroids” a liberal’s worst waking nightmare? I have every expectation that if he’s still on steroids at the next debate, the first time Biden pops off Trump will go all Incredible Hulk on him, and it will look something like this (which I still enjoy almost as much as
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October 4, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Joe Biden leads President Trump 53 percent to 39 percent among registered voters. Last month, a poll by the same organization had Biden’s lead at eight points. That’s two points more than the lead the poll averages gave Biden going into the debate. It’s easy for me to believe that, after Trump’s offputting debate performance, Biden’s lead has increased. I doubt
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September 22, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
In 1996, voters in California passed Proposition 209, which amended the state’s constitution to prohibit public institutions from discriminating on the basis of race, sex, or ethnicity. I wrote about the beneficial effects of Prop 209, including higher graduation rates for Blacks and Latinos, in this post. This year, Californians will vote on Proposition 16, an attempt to remove the ban on racial preferences from the state’s constitution. Prop 16
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September 15, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
According to Rasmussen, President Trump’s job approval rating stands at 51 percent. That’s about where it’s been since late August, and it’s a rating that, one expects, would carry an incumbent president to re-election, especially against a relatively weak opponent like Joe Biden. It’s similar to Barack Obama’s approval rating just before he won in 2016. But what about other surveys? Fox News, in a survey that’s several days older
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September 14, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Count American Jews among the minority groups that appear to be more disposed to vote for Donald Trump in 2020 than they were four years ago. A poll by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that Jewish likely voters favor Joe Biden over President Trump by a split of 67-30. Exit polling in 2016 found that Trump received only 25 percent of the Jewish vote, while Hillary Clinton garnered 70 percent
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September 11, 2020 — Steven Hayward
Paul writes immediately below about the limitless racial politicization of professional sports going on at the moment, and it turns out the Gallup Poll people have just issued some bracing news for professional sports in their latest survey of public attitudes toward various industries. Here are the key findings regarding sports: The biggest slide, however, has been for the sports industry, with its positive score falling 15 points — from
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September 8, 2020 — Steven Hayward
Michael Anton remarked in our podcast last Saturday that he hasn’t seen any hispanics in the videos of protests and riots going on around the country, and I’ve been remarking that out here in California, we’re hearing nothing but crickets from the hispanic community about the whole “Defund the Police” and Black Lives Matter protests. It’s almost as though hispanics may be wondering why Democrats are talking exclusively about black
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