Poll
February 29, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Super Tuesday is almost upon us. It’s less than three days away. The Commonwealth of Virginia, just a few miles from where I live, is a Super Tuesday state. Even before tonight, Joe Biden was gaining momentum in Virginia. The RCP poll average had him in third place, behind Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. But this average was based on only two polls. A new poll from Christopher Newport University,
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February 13, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
Michael Bloomberg has nearly caught up with Joe Biden for second place in national polling of the Democratic race. Bernie Sanders is ahead of both. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest poll averages, Sanders has the support of 22.7 percent of Democrats. Biden is next with 16.8 percent. Then comes Bloomberg at 15.4 Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg follow at between 11 and 12 percent. Absent those recordings of Bloomberg making common
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February 2, 2020 — Steven Hayward
Lots of rumors swirling about why the Des Moines Register canceled the release of its final poll before the caucuses tomorrow night. The official word from the paper is that there was some kind of error or omission on some of the sampling calls, but this ought not to be a fatal problem for polling today. Pollsters routinely balance and weight their raw data to correct for a variety of
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January 28, 2020 — Steven Hayward
My pals at the Institute of Governmental Studies here at UC Berkeley (where I remain a fellow against all odds—story to follow some day soon) today released their latest poll on the state of the presidential race here in the once Golden State ahead of the March primary. I know the IGS pollster, Mark DiCamilo, quite well (in fact we shared an office for a time), and I think he
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January 12, 2020 — Paul Mirengoff
It looks like there will be no black, and indeed no non-white, candidates on the debate stage this month when the leading Democratic contenders square off in Iowa. That’s because no non-white candidate has met the objective criteria, including popularity in polls, for participating. According to the Washington Post, “critics say” that the all-white debate stage “threatens to undercut the party’s rhetoric of inclusivity.” But are rank-and-file black Democrats distressed
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December 10, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Last month, I noted with dismay that, in a survey, a majority of Republicans deemed Donald Trump a better president than Abraham Lincoln. It’s only fair for me to note, with even more dismay, that most Democrats who participated in a new survey deemed Barack Obama a better president than George Washington. The survey comparing Obama and Washington is from Monmouth University. It found that among Democratic voters, the “Father
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November 30, 2019 — Scott Johnson
If I were one of the 1500 “US adult citizens” willing to sit for the not insubstantial amount of time it must have taken respondents to fill out The Economist/YouGov November 24-November 26 poll, I would have been among the 410 or so who self-identified as Republicans and among the 437 or so who self-identified as 2016 Trump voters in response to several of the poll’s questions (if I’m reading
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November 29, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll by YouGov asked who is the better president, Abraham Lincoln or Donald Trump. 53 percent of the Republicans polled selected Trump. At Hot Air, Allahpundit, a frequent critic of President Trump, argues that there’s “less to this poll than meets the eye,” and that the poll isn’t really strong evidence of a Trump cult of personality. I don’t buy the argument. A result this absurd reeks of
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October 29, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
There has been a fair amount of national polling on the question of whether President Trump should be impeached and removed. It tends to show a plurality favoring these remedies. However, according to Harry Enten, impeachment is not popular in key swing states like Wisconsin. He cites a new Marquette University poll from Wisconsin that finds 44 percent of voters wanting Trump to be impeached and removed from office, and
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October 23, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
People more politically astute than I am say that Joe Biden has little chance of winning the Democratic nomination. In their view, Biden is a paper tiger, sort of like Jeb Bush in 2016 and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. In short, he’s a dead man walking. But Bush and Giuliani were not leading in the polls by this time in their unsuccessful presidential runs. By contrast, a new CNN poll
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October 12, 2019 — John Hinderaker
I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down. In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53%
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October 3, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics offers five observations about the politics of impeaching President Trump. The entire piece is worth reading, especially Trende’s comments about the early polling on impeachment. William Galston, a veteran center-left operative, also considers the polls. He sees them as counseling against impeachment. However, his Wall Street Journal column includes this finding from a Quinnipiac survey: Fifty-two percent of voters, including 54% of independents, believe
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September 16, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
The latest survey by Rasmussen finds that President Trump’s approval rating is 50 percent. 49 percent disapprove. Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters. Kyle Smith notes that Rasmussen consistently finds Trump’s approval rating to be higher than other pollsters do. However, Smith also says that other pollsters find Trump’s approval rating to be on the rise: He’s at 47 percent according to The Hill, 44 percent with Reuters, 44 percent with
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August 28, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Earlier this week, a Monmouth poll caused quite a stir by showing, in effect, a three-way tie for the lead in the Democratic presidential race among Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. We noted, however, that Monmouth surveyed fewer than 300 people and that its results appeared to be an outlier. Five more recent polls confirm this assessment: Quinnipiac: Biden 32, Warren 19, Sanders 15 Emerson: Biden 31, Sanders
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August 20, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll from CNN finds that Kamala Harris is supported by only 5 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. That’s down 12 points from less than two months ago. I knew Kamala Harris would lose ground after the last debate, but I didn’t expect anything nearly this dramatic. Biden is well on top according CNN’s poll. He comes in at 29 percent. I’m sure he’d like to be 10
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August 19, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
President Trump lashed out at Fox News after its polling showed him losing to all four major Democratic presidential candidates. “There’s something going on at Fox News,” Trump said, ominously. Trump even appeared to threaten Fox News. He noted that he controls which networks will host the presidential debates next year. He seemed to be saying that if Fox News doesn’t treat him more favorably, it might be shut out
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August 6, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
After last week’s Democratic debates, I predicted that the face-offs wouldn’t alter the race much, but that Elizabeth Warren might get a bounce and Kamala Harris would take a slight hit. I also said that Marianne Williamson’s position would not improve significantly, notwithstanding all of the Google searches that her new age preaching generated. Now we have a survey taken during the days following the debate. The poll, by Quinnipiac,
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