Poll
January 28, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Nancy Pelosi won the first round in the showdown over wall funding. She said “no.” She stuck to “no” during the ensuing lengthy shutdown. President Trump ended the shutdown without getting wall funding. Here in the Washington, D.C. area, everyone seems to believe Pelosi also won (and Trump lost) the battle for public opinion. But did she? Rich Lowry points to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken just before the
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January 5, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Gallup reports that “a record number of Americans want to leave the U.S.” But its poll results don’t support this statement. The results show only that more Americans say they want to leave the U.S. than during the earlier part of this century. Gallup found that 16 percent of Americans say they would like to move permanently to another country. That’s up from 11 percent when George W. Bush was
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December 19, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Earlier today, Steve discussed a Quinnipiac poll that tested the favorability ratings of potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Joe Biden was the big winner at 53-33. Only a few others were even “above water.” They were Bernie Sanders (44-42), Beto O’Rourke (24-20), and Sherrod Brown (12-9). Biden, Sanders, and O’Rourke were also the favorites in a straw poll of MoveOn.org members. O’Rourke came in first with 15.6 percent, just ahead
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October 28, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
CBS News/YouGov is just out with surveys of the following Senate races: Indiana, Florida, and Arizona. All three are neck-and-neck. In Indiana, where YouGov surveyed 975 likely voters, Republican businessman Mike Braun leads Sen. Joe Donnelly 46-43. A third candidate is at 3 percent. With that poll result, which is just inside the margin of error, Braun takes a razor-thin (and, I assume, meaningless) 0.5 percentage point lead in the
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October 24, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A Bankrate.com poll found that 38 percent of Americans say their financial situation has improved since the 2016 election. 45 percent say their financial situation is about the same. 17 percent say it’s worse. The coverage of this survey tries to make these results seem like a repudiation of President Trump’s economic policies and claims of success. Bankrate blares: “Just 38% of Americans say their finances have improved since the
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October 23, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Sen. Joe Donnelly has been running slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, businessman Mike Braun, throughout the campaign season. But now two polls show Braun with a 4 point lead over Donnelly. One of the polls is an internal survey released by the Braun campaign. It shows their guy ahead 44-40. I tend to discount this type of poll. However, the second poll is an Indy Politics survey conducted by
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October 11, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Liberal Democrats and squishy Republicans are renewing their push for legislation that would reduce sentences for federal drug traffickers and release felons from prison early. Majority Leader McConnell reportedly says he will bring such legislation to the floor, after the midterm elections, if it has the support of 60 Senators. If so, leniency legislation could pass even if the vast majority of the GOP caucus opposes it. There’s a good
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September 24, 2018 — John Hinderaker
For some time, as I have written here more than once, I have been waiting for Americans to notice that the Democrats are crazy. I have puzzled over why the Democrats’ outrageous conduct doesn’t seem to alienate more voters. Financial interest is obviously a partial explanation, but it can’t be a complete one. In that context, this Gallup poll is good news: “GOP’s favorability hits highest mark in seven years.”
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August 24, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
I’ve written recently about polling regarding the impact of a vote for or against the Brett Kavanaugh nomination on Democratic incumbent Senators in two swing states. In West Virginia, polling by the Trafalgar Group found that if Sen. Joe Manchin votes to confirm Kavanaugh, it will help his reelection bid in a big way. In Indiana, polling by the same organization found that Sen. Joe Donnelly will be better off
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August 20, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Last month, I wrote about a poll that found Sen. Joe Manchin to be a shoe-in for reelection if he votes to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, but in for an extremely close race if he doesn’t. According to the survey, taken by the Trafalgar Group, West Virginia voters favor Manchin over Republican Patrick Morrisey by 29 points if Manchin votes for confirmation, but by only two points (within the margin of
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August 4, 2018 — John Hinderaker
Via Glenn Reynolds, a potential earthquake in the polling numbers: #ICYMI: From yesterday: Today’s @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 29% This time last year: 15% https://t.co/mazBCW77nY @POTUS @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/xLYuPuFbLX — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 3, 2018 If this trend continues, the Democratic Party is, to put it politely, screwed. Which makes me wonder: over the next few years, will Candace Owens be the most important person in America?
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July 23, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
In a report that should come as news to no one, the Washington Post informs us: [P]ublic reaction nationally [to the Helsinki summit] appears more muted than in Washington, where Trump faced withering bipartisan criticism for appearing to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies at a July 16 news conference in Helsinki. Imagine that. For the record, Trump did not appear to side with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies.
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July 11, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
How many Democratic Senators will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh? I suspect the answer depends on how many Republican Senators will. If Republican Senators don’t break ranks, the votes of their Democratic colleagues won’t matter. In that event, a few Democrats will probably break ranks and support the nominee in order to enhance their re-election prospects. But if it requires Democratic votes to confirm Kavanaugh, I don’t think any Democrats
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July 4, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and The Harris Poll places President Trump’s approval rating at 47 percent. That’s the highest the number has been in more than a year, though it isn’t great. But Trump’s approval rating on key issues and subject areas may be more consequential than his general approval rating. Why? Because if Americans like the job he’s doing on,
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July 4, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
Gallup conducts an annual poll on American patriotism. Participants are asked how proud, if at all, they are to be Americans. This year’s poll found a low ebb in patriotism, with 47 percent of Americans checking the “extremely proud” box. That’s down from a high of 70 percent in 2003. Democrats, liberals, college graduates, and people ages 18 to 29 are the least proud to be American. Only 32 percent
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June 29, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A poll by YouGov shows that half of Democrats think it was “fair” to kick Sarah Sanders out of that restaurant in Lexington, Virginia. Only a third of Dems think it was unfair. These numbers are, within a one percentage point, the reverse of what Americans as a whole believe about the incident. No wonder the Democratic establishment frets about the unhinged left. Arguably, it should be freaking out. When
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June 22, 2018 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll conducted by CNN finds that only 41 percent of Americans approve of Robert Mueller’s handling of the Russia investigation. 39 percent disapprove. 1,012 people participated in the survey. At the start of the year, 47 percent approved of Mueller’s handling and only 33 percent disapproved. As recently as early May, the split was 44-38 in Mueller’s favor. An investigation is not a popularity contest. Nor does low
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