Poll
October 12, 2019 — John Hinderaker
I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down. In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53%
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October 3, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics offers five observations about the politics of impeaching President Trump. The entire piece is worth reading, especially Trende’s comments about the early polling on impeachment. William Galston, a veteran center-left operative, also considers the polls. He sees them as counseling against impeachment. However, his Wall Street Journal column includes this finding from a Quinnipiac survey: Fifty-two percent of voters, including 54% of independents, believe
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September 16, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
The latest survey by Rasmussen finds that President Trump’s approval rating is 50 percent. 49 percent disapprove. Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters. Kyle Smith notes that Rasmussen consistently finds Trump’s approval rating to be higher than other pollsters do. However, Smith also says that other pollsters find Trump’s approval rating to be on the rise: He’s at 47 percent according to The Hill, 44 percent with Reuters, 44 percent with
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August 28, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Earlier this week, a Monmouth poll caused quite a stir by showing, in effect, a three-way tie for the lead in the Democratic presidential race among Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. We noted, however, that Monmouth surveyed fewer than 300 people and that its results appeared to be an outlier. Five more recent polls confirm this assessment: Quinnipiac: Biden 32, Warren 19, Sanders 15 Emerson: Biden 31, Sanders
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August 20, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
A new poll from CNN finds that Kamala Harris is supported by only 5 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. That’s down 12 points from less than two months ago. I knew Kamala Harris would lose ground after the last debate, but I didn’t expect anything nearly this dramatic. Biden is well on top according CNN’s poll. He comes in at 29 percent. I’m sure he’d like to be 10
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August 19, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
President Trump lashed out at Fox News after its polling showed him losing to all four major Democratic presidential candidates. “There’s something going on at Fox News,” Trump said, ominously. Trump even appeared to threaten Fox News. He noted that he controls which networks will host the presidential debates next year. He seemed to be saying that if Fox News doesn’t treat him more favorably, it might be shut out
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August 6, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
After last week’s Democratic debates, I predicted that the face-offs wouldn’t alter the race much, but that Elizabeth Warren might get a bounce and Kamala Harris would take a slight hit. I also said that Marianne Williamson’s position would not improve significantly, notwithstanding all of the Google searches that her new age preaching generated. Now we have a survey taken during the days following the debate. The poll, by Quinnipiac,
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July 18, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
A recent survey by Washington Post/Reforma of Mexican adults finds that they are deeply frustrated with the immigrants who have swarmed into their country from Central America. More than 60 percent of those surveyed consider the illegal immigrants a burden on their country because they take jobs and benefits that should belong to Mexicans. 55 percent say they favor deporting illegal immigrants to their country of origin. 33 percent favor
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July 5, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
They say it’s still too early to put much stock in polling of the Democratic presidential field. That’s probably true. Another reason not to put much stock in these polls is that they are all over the place. Two post-debate polls show that Joe Biden has lost nearly all of early lead and that Bernie Sanders has also faded. The beneficiaries are two female candidates — Kamala Harris and Elizabeth
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July 1, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
How did the Democratic debates affect the candidates’ standing in the polls? The early returns indicate that, as expected, Kamala Harris has surged. Her gains have come in small doses at the expense of most of the other candidates. The only poll I’ve been able to find in which all of the responses appear to have been obtained after both debates is this one from Scott Rasmussen/HarrisX. It finds that
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May 15, 2019 — Steven Hayward
Right now if I had to drop a wager, I’d bet on Trump’s re-election next year. Yes, his overall approval rating remains below 50 percent in most surveys (though stand by on this), but Obama’s approval rating was below 50 percent for much of his first term, and he was re-elected anyway. Moreover, Trump’s highest approval ratings are for his handling of the economy, where he reaches 60 percent in
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April 25, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
A Gallup poll from earlier this month found that Americans consider the government and immigration to be the most important problems facing the U.S. 23 percent of respondents named the government/poor leadership, while 21 percent named immigration. Nothing else came close. Health care was a distant third at 7 percent, followed closely by race relations (6 percent) and (at 5 percent each) the economy, poverty-hunger-homelessness, and unifying the country. “Government/poor
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April 11, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Monmouth University is out with a poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. There are no surprises at the very top. Joe Biden leads with a hefty 27 percent and Bernie Sanders is next with 16 percent. These are the two best known members of the likely field and they are prime representatives of the Party’s two wings — establishment and hard-leftist. In third place, though, stands a relative unknown
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April 4, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
It’s an article of faith among white leftists that President Trump is a racist. He stands accused of being anti-Black and anti-Hispanic. But how do the alleged recipients of his animus view him? Poll numbers suggest that around half of Black voters consider Trump a racist. It remains to be seen whether those who don’t buy this narrative will enable Trump to make a dent in the pro-Democrat monolith that
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March 31, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Byron York calls attention to a Wall Street Journal poll that, since December of last year, has asked this question every month: Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has it given you more doubts about Donald Trump’s presidency or not? In December, 50 percent of respondents said the investigation has given them more doubts about the Trump presidency. 44 percent said
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March 5, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Victor Davis Hanson makes “the case for Trump” in his new book by that name. He kindly summarized his case in a piece for Power Line written at Scott’s request. For nearly all conservatives, the case for Trump is persuasive, whatever the Never Trumpers say. It consists of largely sound economic policies accompanied by economic growth; nominating and confirming judges with conservative views and/or temperament; renegotiating more equitable relationships with
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March 2, 2019 — Paul Mirengoff
Blue state legislators and Democratic presidential candidates seem to be in a bidding war to determine who can be the most extreme when it comes to permitting abortions. Vermont has passed legislation that allows abortion at any point in a pregnancy, and several contenders for the presidency have shown by their Senate vote that they are fine with doing in babies who survive attempted abortions. But a new poll conducted
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