Poll

Biden’s approval rating slips significantly

Featured image Byron York points out that Joe Biden’s approval rating shows the first sign of meaningful decline. In the latest Gallup poll, Biden is at 50 percent approval and 45 percent disapproval — down from 57 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval at the start of his term. What’s the explanation for this decline? Gallup attributes it at least in part to “the law of political gravity” — the end of »

Who’s Proud To Be An American?

Featured image I don’t know whether these poll data are reproducible, but they are interesting. Most people, first of all, are proud of being Americans. That is a good thing. Conservatives are most proud, but 87% of moderates are proud to be Americans, too. Hispanics are slightly more proud to be Americans than whites, but Asians, for some reason, are less proud in this survey. Maybe it is a fluke, or maybe »

Poll: College students overwhelmingly favor race-blind admissions

Featured image The youth of America may not be as clueless as the more pessimistic among us suppose. According to a new survey by College Pulse, 67 percent of college students strongly support “race blind” admissions. Another 18 percent “somewhat support” such admissions. This leaves only 15 percent who oppose race blind admissions. Of that group, only 5 percent strongly oppose them. The survey defines race blind admissions as meaning that “colleges »

The Economy: A Winning Issue for Republicans

Featured image The Democrats entered 2021 thinking they could do pretty much anything they want, and coast to future victories on the back of the inevitable economic rebound from covid shutdown-depressed 2020. No matter how much they held back the economy, their thinking went, it would show vigorous growth and thereby insulate them from political fallout. The Democrats’ cockiness was exemplified by Joe Biden’s absurd assertion that “no serious economist” is worried »

Dems Say: We’re In Trouble

Featured image Someone passed on to me a report done by a Democratic Party consulting group called Future Majority. The report covers polling done by Future Majority in 37 Congressional swing districts, along with additional polling in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Arizona, Michigan and New Hampshire. Along with poll results, it includes extensive recommendations to the Democratic Party. The polling was mostly done between May 10 and May 14. The report is embedded »

Americans Are Confused, But the Democrats Are In Trouble

Featured image The Harvard/Harris poll surveyed over 2,000 Americans a few days ago. The results are interesting, in some ways confounding and in other ways encouraging. You can look at the whole thing and draw your own conclusions. Here are a few observations: * More respondents say we are on the “right track” than at any time in recent years. I assume this mostly has to do with the fading of COVID, »

Trouble for Dems in Battleground States

Featured image Earlier this month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican Governors’ Association employed OnMessage Inc. to conduct a poll of 26 states where important Senate and gubernatorial races are shaping up in 2022. The poll included 1,200 likely voters, but it is not clear how those voters were distributed among the 26 states. Of the states that were surveyed, ten were classified as red, nine as purple, and seven »

Trouble ahead for Democrats?

Featured image Joe Biden’s average approval rating is 54 percent. That’s not bad, though it lags behind the 100-day numbers of every post-World War II president except Donald Trump. But our friend Michael Barone looks behind that number and sees worrying signs for Democrats. For one thing, Biden’s 41.6 percent disapproval number is about equal to Trump’s. And Biden’s real numbers may be worse than what the poll average shows because, as »

Poll finds Trump’s hold on Republicans strong but weakening

Featured image A new NBC poll finds (at page 19) that 50 percent of Republicans say they consider themselves mainly supporters of the GOP, while 44 percent say them consider themselves mainly supporters of Donald Trump. That’s an extraordinarily high number for Trump, to be sure. However, as Rich Lowry notes, it represents a decline. In January, respondents split evenly, 46-46. In October, it was 54 for Trump and only 38 for »

MLB’s favorability rating plummets

Featured image Major League Baseball has suffered a massive loss in popularity among Republicans due to its intervention on the side of Democrats in the political dispute over Georgia’s voting law. According to a poll by Morning Consult, MLB’s net favorability rating (the difference between the percentage of those who view the sport positively and those who view it negatively) among Republicans has dropped from 47 points to 12 points in the »

What Do the People Think?

Featured image I’m looking over the 189-page results of a recent Harvard-Harris poll of 1,778 voters conducted last week, and there are some interesting findings to pass along: Andrew Cuomo: Very Favorable/Favorable— 31%; Unfavorable/Very Unfavorable—42% (Note: the poll finished on Feb. 25, before most of the sexual harassment stories hit the media.) This question is interesting for its even split: “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The 2020 election »

Donald Trump is the man Americans admire most

Featured image In a new Gallup poll, 18 percent of Americans name President Trump as the man they admire most. No one else reaches that mark. Former president Obama comes the closest at 15 percent. The sitting president usually comes in first in this poll, which Gallup has taken for decades. But throughout most of his presidency, Trump trailed Obama. (The two men tied last year.) In fact, Obama has been at »

Poll: Most Americans don’t want Pelosi to be Speaker

Featured image A new poll from Politico/Morning Consult suggests that Americans have restored Nancy Pelosi to her rightful place as the nation’s chief villain among its leaders. According to the survey, only 31 percent of voters think Pelosi should remain as Speaker of the House. 56 percent believe she shouldn’t. President Trump never had numbers this bad — not in any reliable poll. And I’m pretty sure Majority Leader McConnell would poll »

Who Were the “Shy Trump Voters”?

Featured image The biggest surprise for the mainstream media and the conventional pollsters was that there were a significant number of “shy Trump voters.” Who were these voters? One segment was non-white voters, especially Hispanics but also blacks. Trump received the largest GOP share of the non-white vote in 60 years. Liberals are spinning furiously to explain this away. More on this later on. The other group of shy Trump voters appear »

Rich Baris versus garbage media

Featured image David Rutz has compiled one of his Washington Free Beacon SUPERcuts videos (below), this one taking a look back at the landslide Biden victory foreseen by the garbage media. He notes that Republicans have gained House seats and appear poised to maintain their Senate majority, while the presidential election remains in doubt. Numerous national polls showed Biden with a double-digit lead over President Donald Trump, but they vastly underestimated Trump »

Election day thread [with rolling updates]

Featured image A commenter asked us to open an election day thread that can be updated to keep comments in one place. I’m not sure how much we will have to say before the polls close, but I wanted to kick it off with this post and invite commenters to have their say. RealClearPolitics has posted the predictive column posted at Medium by Phillip Stutts. Stutts boldly looks ahead in “Here is »

Why The Polls May Be Wrong, in One Chart

Featured image The handful of “outlier” polls, like the Democracy Institute poll out over the weekend that finds Trump tied or ahead in the popular vote, all have one thing in common: they don’t rely on traditional polling sample methods such as telephone calls, email or other internet contact. They are coming up with estimates derived from a number of techniques, mostly proprietary, that may presage the future of opinion surveys if »