Poll
September 26, 2022 — Scott Johnson
I’m observing Rosh Hashanah today. My friend Howard Root is lending a hand to a few Republican campaigns this year. Yesterday I asked him if he would respond to my comments on Trafalgar’s Minnesota poll that I could schedule to post this morning. Howard offered these observations (and I thank him for helping me take the day off): 1. What I find so refreshing about Robert Cahaly and his Trafalgar
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September 25, 2022 — Steven Hayward
John notes below the latest “mainstream” polls showing both Biden and the Democrats reaching the burnt toast stage of this election cycle, but amidst the lingering questions about the accuracy of polling these days, it should be noted that the outcome of the midterms presents a huge dilemma for Democrats no matter how the election turns out. If Democrats get drowned in a wave, they face the serious problem of
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September 25, 2022 — Scott Johnson
I have absolutely no feel for the state of play in Minnesota’s elections — early voting commenced this past Friday — so I was especially interested in the results of the Alpha News/Trafalgar Group poll results of our statewide races that Alpha reported here last week. I believe that the poll is the best out there and that the results are accurate within the margin of error as of the
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September 22, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Trafalgar’s poll results in Minnesota and elsewhere this year stand out from the pack, as they have done generally in recent years. Dan McLaughlin’s excellent NRO column on Trafalgar’s methodology as explained by Trafalgar founder Robert Cahaly includes this comment on the current state of play: On the issue environment, Cahaly says that he hasn’t seen any issue in a long time that motivates people as much as opposition to
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September 21, 2022 — Scott Johnson
I wrote about the Alpha News/Trafalgar Group’s poll of statewide races and issues in Minnesota here yesterday. Alpha News has posted the results here. Trafalgar’s Minnesota results should be encouraging to Republicans, as Trafalgar’s results are elsewhere. Today NRO’s Dan McLaughlin homes in on Trafalgar’s methodology. McLaughlin interviewed Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly and summarized the key points in an excellent column that is unfortunately posted behind NRO’s paywall. However, Liz Collin
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September 20, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Polls conducted by Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group are the ones to which I pay most attention. While other polls have become a recurring joke, Trafalgar’s have established an impressive record in recent years. Trafalgar, for example, was one of the only pollsters to predict President Trump’s 2016 victory and was the second most accurate pollster in 2020. While other polls in Minnesota and elsewhere have given Democrats heart this summer,
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September 13, 2022 — Steven Hayward
The dominant narrative of the Democrat-Media-Complex is that Joe Biden is coming back—look, his approval rating has risen above 40 percent! The “generic ballot” for the House shows Dems back in the lead! Democratic Senate candidates are leading their weakling Republican challengers in several red states! (Although in fact several recent polls reflect rising GOP Senate candidate strength in key races, but never mind.) Independent voters are breaking back to
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September 9, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Yesterday we noted how West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has played the fool for the Democrats’ tax, climate, and spending bonanza in the absurdly named Inflation Reduction Act. You can’t help but get the feeling that the Democrats are conducting a social science experiment. They are testing voters to ascertain if they’re paying attention. West Virginia voters appear to be paying attention. Drawing on a recent Triton poll, RedState’s Mr.
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September 7, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Pollster Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group asked 1084 likely general election voters what they thought of President Biden’s Triumph of the shill speech this past Thursday. Trafalgar posed the question: “What is your opinion of President Biden’s recent primetime address to the nation in which he accused his political opponents of representing ‘an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic’?” The results are tabulated in the tweet below and
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September 4, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Over the past week pollster Robert Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group released three polls with results that should tend to encourage Republicans. You can scroll through Trafalgar’s recent poll results here. Trafalgar has posted its methodology here. Each of the poll results reported in tweets below is supported by a summary report that is linked in a given tweet. In the Georgia Senate race the Trafalgar poll showed Herschel Walker pulling narrowly
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September 2, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Yesterday I wrote about the “Rise & fall of the Biden bump” as measured in the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. According to the most recent Quinnipiac poll, however, the Biden bump is, I am afraid to say, tumescent. We appear to be in Hunter Biden territory with the bump. Quinnipiac’s poll of 1,584 U.S. adults ran from August 25-29 with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The
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September 1, 2022 — Scott Johnson
President Biden’s approval rating recently bumped up into the low 40’s. My working theory is that Biden is well served by his time out of the public eye and poorly served by his public appearances and remarks. Biden’s minders in the White House don’t seem to agree with me, however, as they continue to send him on the road to peddle the fabrications, fabulations, and grotesqueries of his Wilkes-Barre remarks,
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August 17, 2022 — Steven Hayward
Suddenly Democrats are feeling more chipper about their prospects for November. Congress passed something! President Biden got to have a signing ceremony at the White House! (You have to understand that for the liberal mind, nothing good can happen in the world without a signing ceremony—it’s the key sacrament of their secular religion.) Some polls show Democrats looking better, especially in key Senate races where Republicans have nominated weak candidates.
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August 9, 2022 — Steven Hayward
To listen to the Democrats’ media cheerleaders, Biden and his party have their mojo back, and can now look forward to turning around their dismal mid-term election prospects. Paul Krugman thinks Democrats may have actually saved western civilization! It seems, though, that the voters haven’t yet got the memo, which is no surprise since public trust in the media is now below used-car salesman levels. As Charles Lipson pointed out,
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July 14, 2022 — Scott Johnson
Josh Kraushaar has left National Journal for Axios. Yesterday Axios flagged Kraushaar’s reading of the demographic shifts reflected in the latest New York Times/Siena College Poll: “Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters…” Today on Axios Kraushaar writes under his own byline in “The great realignment.” The key data point is among Hispanic voters: “Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among
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July 10, 2022 — Scott Johnson
The New York Post headline reads “Biden’s approval rating craters to 30% after brutal week.” Reading the same poll, RedState’s Nick Arama comments perceptively on the numbers in “Prepare for the Biden Tantrum.” What more is to be said? The reported poll is one of registered voters. If it were filtered to reflect likely voters, I have to think the results would be slightly worse. On that point, we shall
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July 6, 2022 — Steven Hayward
The latest Gallup survey of public trust in U.S. institutions is out, and just about everything is sliding. As Gallup summarizes: Americans are less confident in major U.S. institutions than they were a year ago, with significant declines for 11 of the 16 institutions tested and no improvements for any. The largest declines in confidence are 11 percentage points for the Supreme Court — as reported in late June before
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