Polls gone wild

Featured image They say it’s still too early to put much stock in polling of the Democratic presidential field. That’s probably true. Another reason not to put much stock in these polls is that they are all over the place. Two post-debate polls show that Joe Biden has lost nearly all of early lead and that Bernie Sanders has also faded. The beneficiaries are two female candidates — Kamala Harris and Elizabeth »

The state of the race after the Dem debates

Featured image How did the Democratic debates affect the candidates’ standing in the polls? The early returns indicate that, as expected, Kamala Harris has surged. Her gains have come in small doses at the expense of most of the other candidates. The only poll I’ve been able to find in which all of the responses appear to have been obtained after both debates is this one from Scott Rasmussen/HarrisX. It finds that »

The Prospects for Trump, 18 Months Out

Featured image Right now if I had to drop a wager, I’d bet on Trump’s re-election next year. Yes, his overall approval rating remains below 50 percent in most surveys (though stand by on this), but Obama’s approval rating was below 50 percent for much of his first term, and he was re-elected anyway. Moreover, Trump’s highest approval ratings are for his handling of the economy, where he reaches 60 percent in »

Poll: Government and immigration worry Americans most

Featured image A Gallup poll from earlier this month found that Americans consider the government and immigration to be the most important problems facing the U.S. 23 percent of respondents named the government/poor leadership, while 21 percent named immigration. Nothing else came close. Health care was a distant third at 7 percent, followed closely by race relations (6 percent) and (at 5 percent each) the economy, poverty-hunger-homelessness, and unifying the country. “Government/poor »

Poll: Buttigieg is third in Iowa

Featured image Monmouth University is out with a poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa. There are no surprises at the very top. Joe Biden leads with a hefty 27 percent and Bernie Sanders is next with 16 percent. These are the two best known members of the likely field and they are prime representatives of the Party’s two wings — establishment and hard-leftist. In third place, though, stands a relative unknown »

Polls: Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics approaches 50 percent

Featured image It’s an article of faith among white leftists that President Trump is a racist. He stands accused of being anti-Black and anti-Hispanic. But how do the alleged recipients of his animus view him? Poll numbers suggest that around half of Black voters consider Trump a racist. It remains to be seen whether those who don’t buy this narrative will enable Trump to make a dent in the pro-Democrat monolith that »

Poll: Mueller report flips public opinion

Featured image Byron York calls attention to a Wall Street Journal poll that, since December of last year, has asked this question every month: Based on what you have seen, read, or heard about Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, has it given you more doubts about Donald Trump’s presidency or not? In December, 50 percent of respondents said the investigation has given them more doubts about the Trump presidency. 44 percent said »

The economic case for Trump

Featured image Victor Davis Hanson makes “the case for Trump” in his new book by that name. He kindly summarized his case in a piece for Power Line written at Scott’s request. For nearly all conservatives, the case for Trump is persuasive, whatever the Never Trumpers say. It consists of largely sound economic policies accompanied by economic growth; nominating and confirming judges with conservative views and/or temperament; renegotiating more equitable relationships with »

Democrats are increasingly out of line with public opinion on abortion

Featured image Blue state legislators and Democratic presidential candidates seem to be in a bidding war to determine who can be the most extreme when it comes to permitting abortions. Vermont has passed legislation that allows abortion at any point in a pregnancy, and several contenders for the presidency have shown by their Senate vote that they are fine with doing in babies who survive attempted abortions. But a new poll conducted »

Conservatives Still Outnumber Liberals, But Gap Narrowing

Featured image In recent history, self-described conservatives have generally outnumbered liberals by a ratio of 1 1/2 or 2 to 1. According to Gallup’s latest survey, that gap has narrowed. Conservatives had a 21-point edge in 2004; that is down to nine points today. The state-by-state breakdown is interesting. Gallup emphasizes the fact that there are 19 “highly conservative” states, in which the conservative margin is 20 points or more. There are »

Poll: Elizabeth Warren lags in New Hampshire

Featured image At Hot Air, Allahpundit calls attention to a poll of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire taken by the University of Massachusetts Amherst. Joe Biden comes in first with 28 percent support. Bernie Sanders follows Biden with 20 percent. After that, it’s Kamala Harris (14 percent) and Elizabeth Warren (9 percent). What do Biden and Sanders have in common? Not ideology. They are on opposite ends of the Democrats’ ideological »

Shutdown politics

Featured image Nancy Pelosi won the first round in the showdown over wall funding. She said “no.” She stuck to “no” during the ensuing lengthy shutdown. President Trump ended the shutdown without getting wall funding. Here in the Washington, D.C. area, everyone seems to believe Pelosi also won (and Trump lost) the battle for public opinion. But did she? Rich Lowry points to a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken just before the »

Talk is cheap

Featured image Gallup reports that “a record number of Americans want to leave the U.S.” But its poll results don’t support this statement. The results show only that more Americans say they want to leave the U.S. than during the earlier part of this century. Gallup found that 16 percent of Americans say they would like to move permanently to another country. That’s up from 11 percent when George W. Bush was »

Is Beto the one?

Featured image Earlier today, Steve discussed a Quinnipiac poll that tested the favorability ratings of potential 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Joe Biden was the big winner at 53-33. Only a few others were even “above water.” They were Bernie Sanders (44-42), Beto O’Rourke (24-20), and Sherrod Brown (12-9). Biden, Sanders, and O’Rourke were also the favorites in a straw poll of MoveOn.org members. O’Rourke came in first with 15.6 percent, just ahead »

Three Senate race polls

Featured image CBS News/YouGov is just out with surveys of the following Senate races: Indiana, Florida, and Arizona. All three are neck-and-neck. In Indiana, where YouGov surveyed 975 likely voters, Republican businessman Mike Braun leads Sen. Joe Donnelly 46-43. A third candidate is at 3 percent. With that poll result, which is just inside the margin of error, Braun takes a razor-thin (and, I assume, meaningless) 0.5 percentage point lead in the »

38 percent of Americans say they are better off financially since 2016 election

Featured image A Bankrate.com poll found that 38 percent of Americans say their financial situation has improved since the 2016 election. 45 percent say their financial situation is about the same. 17 percent say it’s worse. The coverage of this survey tries to make these results seem like a repudiation of President Trump’s economic policies and claims of success. Bankrate blares: “Just 38% of Americans say their finances have improved since the »

Polls suggest Braun might be pulling ahead of Donnelly in Indiana

Featured image Sen. Joe Donnelly has been running slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, businessman Mike Braun, throughout the campaign season. But now two polls show Braun with a 4 point lead over Donnelly. One of the polls is an internal survey released by the Braun campaign. It shows their guy ahead 44-40. I tend to discount this type of poll. However, the second poll is an Indy Politics survey conducted by »