Surprises Inside Trump’s Poll Numbers

Featured image As everyone knows, most polls—even Fox News yesterday—have Trump trailing Biden by as much as 10 points or more, reflecting a major slump from his position before the coronavirus and the post-Floyd urban unrest started. On closer look, Trump has lost support with various segments of white voters that supported him in 2016. That’s the finding of an NBC News poll out yesterday. Here’s a key part: Biden is clobbering »

An Orwellian nightmare for pollsters

Featured image In a post earlier today, Steve discussed a poll that finds 62 percent of Americans saying they have political opinions they are afraid to share out of fear of giving offense or losing their jobs. This finding raises potential problems for pollsters. I say “potential” because we don’t know whether, or to what extent, the fear of expressing political opinions extends to conversations with pollsters. No one risks losing a »

Our Orwellian Nightmare Come True

Featured image The Cato Institute has released a poll on self-censorship conducted by the highly respected YouGov survey unit that finds 62 percent of Americans say they have political opinions they are afraid to speak because they fear giving offense or losing their jobs. Moreover, as the reports notes, this represents an increase from the last such poll taken in 2017: “The share of Americans who self‐​censor has risen several points since 2017 »

Poll: Americans are concerned that criticism of police will reduce safety

Featured image If you follow the news as presented by the mainstream media, you might well infer that America has lost its mind, at least insofar as policing is concerned. As depicted by the media, the current debate is between those who want to abolish the police and those who merely want to hamstring it. However, a new Rasmusssen poll indicates that, combined, these two positions — abolish and hamstring — have »

The Democratic horse race comes to Virginia

Featured image Super Tuesday is almost upon us. It’s less than three days away. The Commonwealth of Virginia, just a few miles from where I live, is a Super Tuesday state. Even before tonight, Joe Biden was gaining momentum in Virginia. The RCP poll average had him in third place, behind Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. But this average was based on only two polls. A new poll from Christopher Newport University, »

Bloomberg surging in national polls

Featured image Michael Bloomberg has nearly caught up with Joe Biden for second place in national polling of the Democratic race. Bernie Sanders is ahead of both. According to FiveThirtyEight’s latest poll averages, Sanders has the support of 22.7 percent of Democrats. Biden is next with 16.8 percent. Then comes Bloomberg at 15.4 Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg follow at between 11 and 12 percent. Absent those recordings of Bloomberg making common »

Bernie Mania Update [Updated by John]

Featured image Lots of rumors swirling about why the Des Moines Register canceled the release of its final poll before the caucuses tomorrow night. The official word from the paper is that there was some kind of error or omission on some of the sampling calls, but this ought not to be a fatal problem for polling today. Pollsters routinely balance and weight their raw data to correct for a variety of »

Feeling the Bern in California

Featured image My pals at the Institute of Governmental Studies here at UC Berkeley (where I remain a fellow against all odds—story to follow some day soon) today released their latest poll on the state of the presidential race here in the once Golden State ahead of the March primary. I know the IGS pollster, Mark DiCamilo, quite well (in fact we shared an office for a time), and I think he »

No blacks on the debate stage. Do blacks care?

Featured image It looks like there will be no black, and indeed no non-white, candidates on the debate stage this month when the leading Democratic contenders square off in Iowa. That’s because no non-white candidate has met the objective criteria, including popularity in polls, for participating. According to the Washington Post, “critics say” that the all-white debate stage “threatens to undercut the party’s rhetoric of inclusivity.” But are rank-and-file black Democrats distressed »

Poll: Democrats consider Obama a better president than George Washington

Featured image Last month, I noted with dismay that, in a survey, a majority of Republicans deemed Donald Trump a better president than Abraham Lincoln. It’s only fair for me to note, with even more dismay, that most Democrats who participated in a new survey deemed Barack Obama a better president than George Washington. The survey comparing Obama and Washington is from Monmouth University. It found that among Democratic voters, the “Father »

Trump versus Lincoln: A tentative second look [with comment by Paul]

Featured image If I were one of the 1500 “US adult citizens” willing to sit for the not insubstantial amount of time it must have taken respondents to fill out The Economist/YouGov November 24-November 26 poll, I would have been among the 410 or so who self-identified as Republicans and among the 437 or so who self-identified as 2016 Trump voters in response to several of the poll’s questions (if I’m reading »

Poll: Most Republicans consider Trump a better president than Lincoln

Featured image A new poll by YouGov asked who is the better president, Abraham Lincoln or Donald Trump. 53 percent of the Republicans polled selected Trump. At Hot Air, Allahpundit, a frequent critic of President Trump, argues that there’s “less to this poll than meets the eye,” and that the poll isn’t really strong evidence of a Trump cult of personality. I don’t buy the argument. A result this absurd reeks of »

Impeaching Trump not popular in swing states

Featured image There has been a fair amount of national polling on the question of whether President Trump should be impeached and removed. It tends to show a plurality favoring these remedies. However, according to Harry Enten, impeachment is not popular in key swing states like Wisconsin. He cites a new Marquette University poll from Wisconsin that finds 44 percent of voters wanting Trump to be impeached and removed from office, and »

Joe Biden, dead man running?

Featured image People more politically astute than I am say that Joe Biden has little chance of winning the Democratic nomination. In their view, Biden is a paper tiger, sort of like Jeb Bush in 2016 and Rudy Giuliani in 2008. In short, he’s a dead man walking. But Bush and Giuliani were not leading in the polls by this time in their unsuccessful presidential runs. By contrast, a new CNN poll »

Trump Bounces Back

Featured image I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down. In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53% »

The polling on impeachment

Featured image Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics offers five observations about the politics of impeaching President Trump. The entire piece is worth reading, especially Trende’s comments about the early polling on impeachment. William Galston, a veteran center-left operative, also considers the polls. He sees them as counseling against impeachment. However, his Wall Street Journal column includes this finding from a Quinnipiac survey: Fifty-two percent of voters, including 54% of independents, believe »

Poll: Trump approval rating at 50 percent

Featured image The latest survey by Rasmussen finds that President Trump’s approval rating is 50 percent. 49 percent disapprove. Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters. Kyle Smith notes that Rasmussen consistently finds Trump’s approval rating to be higher than other pollsters do. However, Smith also says that other pollsters find Trump’s approval rating to be on the rise: He’s at 47 percent according to The Hill, 44 percent with Reuters, 44 percent with »