Beneath the Top Line Poll Numbers

Featured image The first thing to understand about the Democratic Party today is that its shift to the left has occurred chiefly among white Democrats. This may be the hidden weakness that delivers the election to Trump. Let’s start with a new chart from Zach Goldberg, who notes survey data from the spring about Democratic voters in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Texas. What it shows is revealing: white Democrats are the most »

Poll Average: Trump trails Biden by 8 points

Featured image Yesterday, I cited a WSJ/NBC poll that found President Trump 14 points behind Joe Biden. I expressed skepticism that Biden has a lead that large. Steve has since cited other polls that find the race to be close. To this mix, I want to call attention to the most recent survey I’ve seen. It’s a poll for Just the News conducted by Scott Rasmussen from October 1-3. The public learned »

Trump: Still Living Rent-Free in the Heads of Liberals

Featured image So, Trump is on steroids. My first question is, how can you tell? Second, is not the phrase “Trump is on steroids” a liberal’s worst waking nightmare? I have every expectation that if he’s still on steroids at the next debate, the first time Biden pops off Trump will go all Incredible Hulk on him, and it will look something like this (which I still enjoy almost as much as »

Poll: Biden leads Trump by 14 points

Featured image According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Joe Biden leads President Trump 53 percent to 39 percent among registered voters. Last month, a poll by the same organization had Biden’s lead at eight points. That’s two points more than the lead the poll averages gave Biden going into the debate. It’s easy for me to believe that, after Trump’s offputting debate performance, Biden’s lead has increased. I doubt »

Poll: California voters don’t want racial preferences reinstated

Featured image In 1996, voters in California passed Proposition 209, which amended the state’s constitution to prohibit public institutions from discriminating on the basis of race, sex, or ethnicity. I wrote about the beneficial effects of Prop 209, including higher graduation rates for Blacks and Latinos, in this post. This year, Californians will vote on Proposition 16, an attempt to remove the ban on racial preferences from the state’s constitution. Prop 16 »

A job approval rating Trump can win with

Featured image According to Rasmussen, President Trump’s job approval rating stands at 51 percent. That’s about where it’s been since late August, and it’s a rating that, one expects, would carry an incumbent president to re-election, especially against a relatively weak opponent like Joe Biden. It’s similar to Barack Obama’s approval rating just before he won in 2016. But what about other surveys? Fox News, in a survey that’s several days older »

Poll: Trump doing a little better with American Jews this time around

Featured image Count American Jews among the minority groups that appear to be more disposed to vote for Donald Trump in 2020 than they were four years ago. A poll by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that Jewish likely voters favor Joe Biden over President Trump by a split of 67-30. Exit polling in 2016 found that Trump received only 25 percent of the Jewish vote, while Hillary Clinton garnered 70 percent »

Spoil Sports

Featured image Paul writes immediately below about the limitless racial politicization of professional sports going on at the moment, and it turns out the Gallup Poll people have just issued some bracing news for professional sports in their latest survey of public attitudes toward various industries. Here are the key findings regarding sports: The biggest slide, however, has been for the sports industry, with its positive score falling 15 points — from »

Crash at the Four-Way Intersectionality

Featured image Michael Anton remarked in our podcast last Saturday that he hasn’t seen any hispanics in the videos of protests and riots going on around the country, and I’ve been remarking that out here in California, we’re hearing nothing but crickets from the hispanic community about the whole “Defund the Police” and Black Lives Matter protests. It’s almost as though hispanics may be wondering why Democrats are talking exclusively about black »

Poll: Trump got convention bounce with Blacks

Featured image Last week, a Morning Consult poll found that President Trump received a bounce from the GOP Convention, but that his standing among black voters declined somewhat. I found the latter result surprising, given the relentlessness with which Republicans appealed to Blacks during the convention. Now, a Hill-HarrisX poll finds that Trump’s support among black voters was up by 9 percentage points after the first two days of the Republican Convention. »

Loose Ends Updates

Featured image Let’s catch up on some updates to the regular themes and stores we’re covering right now. • Here’s our feel good story of the day: Mayor Bill De Blasio Plans 22,000 Layoffs, As People Flee New York City In Droves New York City may lay off tens of thousands of municipal workers. Even with this massive downsizing, it won’t be enough to stem the financial hemorrhaging plaguing the city. The Wall »

Early polling finds Trump getting a convention bounce

Featured image A poll by Morning Consult finds President Trump in better shape after the GOP Convention than before it. According to this poll, Trump now trails Biden by 50-44 among likely voters. Before the Convention, he trailed 52-42. This “bounce” seems to be a function of respondents viewing Biden less favorably than before, rather than viewing Trump more favorably. Morning Consult found that Biden’s favorability numbers have weakened while the president’s »

Poll: Public opposes releasing prisoners on account of the coronavirus

Featured image As noted here, a prisoner released from an Alexandria, Virginia jail due to the Wuhan cornavirus killed the woman who testified against him on sexual assault charges. There had been no cases of the virus in that jail. In another local case, a Montgomery County, Maryland man released from jail for the same reason stabbed a 63 year old man to death. These stories prompted Fox 5 Washington to take »

Guess Who Wants Cops Around? Blacks

Featured image Gallup has a new poll out today with the headline “Black Americans Want Police to Retain Local Presence.” This headline understates the findings a bit, as the summary says “most [blacks] (81%) want police to spend same amount of or more time in their area.” (The actual numbers are 61% same; 20 percent more time.) The Gallup report, part of its new initiative called the Gallup Center on Black Voices, »

Poll: Strong majority opposes forced diversification of neighborhoods

Featured image Claims by left-wing journalists that President Trump’s revocation of AFFH won’t help him win suburban voters strike me as confirmation that this line of attack might very well have that happy effect. It seems to me that the Democratic left doth protest too much. A new Rasmussen poll shows that Trump’s attack on Joe Biden for making “war on the suburbs” is, indeed, potentially powerful: A poll released Tuesday by »

A good poll for Trump

Featured image The Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll for Friday, July 31, finds that 50 percent of likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 48 percent disapprove. 39 percent strongly approve and 43 percent strongly disapprove. Comparing Trump’s approval rating to that of Barack Obama on the corresponding date eight years ago, Rasmussen finds Trump doing slightly better. On July 31, 2012, Obama’s approval rating in the Rasmussen poll was »

Poll: 77 percent of Americans are concerned about crime in our cities

Featured image The Hill reports on a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll in which 77 percent of respondents said they are concerned that crime is rising in the nation’s cities. 46 percent of respondents said they are concerned about rising crime in their own communities. Although reported by The Hill, the poll apparently has not yet been posted. Mark Penn, Harvard CAPS/Harris polling director, noted that respondents are concerned that prosecutors are not »