My conservative cousin from New York has been following electoral politics since the days of Ike and Adlai. Here are his thoughts about the 2004 election:
“We. . .think Hindrocket’s fears are overblown and hope the thoughts below help allay his anxieties:
“There are few things in life more certain than Dan Rather, The New York Times and CNN discovering that union membership and manufacturing jobs are declining in America when a Republican is in the White House. The fact that these are long term trends mostly reflecting a more prosperous America is of course ignored.
“There will also be stories about the problems the GOP has in garnering support from ‘people of color.’
“It seems to me that most Americans pay little or no attention to the prattle of the media elite.
“In my view the more salient fact is the failure of any Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 to gain 50% of the popular vote. This is largely due to the continuing shrinkage of the Democratic vote among White people. The New Deal Democrat has all but vanished from the scene.
“Moreover, there is no unified bloc of ‘minority voters.’ Afro-Americans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Chinese, and others lumped together by the media do not share a common historical experience or outlook on American politics. Many of the younger generation are busily intermarrying with the rest of us.
“The electoral playing field is definitely tilted in the GOP’s favor. Absent a disastrous turn in the war against terror I can’t see any of the Democrats defeating Bush.”
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