My conservative cousin from New York has responded to my post from last week about the Wisconsin primary results. I had argued that a look at the vote by income category showed possible weakness on John Kerry’s part in a race with President Bush. My cousin offers a different perspective:
“Your analysis of the primary results in Wisconsin got me to thinking that the more meaningful way to analyze the results might be to look at the age and ethnicity of the voters. Kerry ran well ahead of Edwards in Milwaukee with its aging base of Polish blue collar Democratic voters. In areas like Madison, home of the educational elites, the results were almost even.
“I suspect that Edwards description of a country filled with starving and freezing children played well with the university set. Among voters more attuned to the realities of life in 21st century America his comments probably seem risable. Too bad Edwards can’t use a voir dire to eliminate voters the way you can at those civil trials that provided the foundation for his fortune.
“With his pseudo Irish personna and admirable war record Kerry at first glance would be a favored candidate of older Democratic voters who helped elect the first JFK. As his background and voting record become well known, I suspect his appeal to these voters will diminish. The children and grandchildren of these voters have generally prospered and moved to the suburbs or the Sun Belt and are as likely as not to vote Republican. Kevin Phillips Emerging Republican Majority still lives.
“Maybe this is too optimistic – but I’m looking forward to a repeat of 1988 regardless of which of these two is nominated. Of course, given the current international scene any prediction must be hedged.”
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