Prelude to a demise?

Jack Kelly, the excellent national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, makes a more than plausible point about the fighting in Iraq, one that seems to have escaped most in the mainstream media — the current armed uprisings may well represent “a big mistake” on the part of the bad guys. This seems particularly true of the uprising in Fallujah. Says Kelly, “guerillas survive by running away to fight another day.” In his view, “by allowing themselves to be trapped in Fallujah, the Baathists and Sunni Muslim terrorists have sealed their doom.”
Kelly acknowledges that “Sadr’s revolt is more worrisome, because it is the first time a Shiite group has taken up arms against the Coalition.” Yet, Sadr seems to have little support among Shiites, and his “Mahdi Army” is actually more of a mob. Kelly believes that by launching his attacks, Sadr is giving the Coalition the justification it needed to destroy his militia with less risk of alienating the Shiite community as a whole. And “by bunching his militia in a couple of communities, he’s provided the Coalition with a target-rich environment.”
Thus, the bloody events of last week (the bloodiest since last November) may hasten the demise of our enemies in Iraq.