Another poll from Alaska has Lisa Murkowski leading Joe Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. The poll, conducted by an outfit called Dittman Research and Communications, has Murkowski at 37 percent, Miller at 27 percent, and McAdams at 23 percent. Thirteen percent were still undecided. The results were released Friday afternoon.
Murkowski presumably is pleased with these and similar results, but Politico reports that she’s not putting great stock in this polling.
That seems wise. Consider how Dittman framed the question. In asking participants how they will vote, it included as part of the question whether they will vote for a write-in candidate “such as Lisa Murkowski or someone else.” But next Tuesday, voters will not have that Murkowski prompt (although, as I undestand it, a list of the write-in candidates will be available at precincts for those who ask for one).
It also seems implausible that Miller will capture less than, say, 35 percent of the vote. From what I can tell, he remains popular with the conservative, Pallin-oriented base — presumably all the more so after Thursday’s Palin rally for Miller.
Given these realities, Mark Begich, the State’s Democratic Senator, says he considers Miller a slight favorite to win. Nate Silver also likes Miller’s chances.
Nonetheless, if 13 percent of the voters really are undecided, the outcome is still very much in doubt.
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