Economy
November 4, 2025 — John Hinderaker
As we await the results of today’s (or this month’s) New York City mayor election, this data point is illuminating. From the Unleash Prosperity Hotline: Is New York the world’s financial capital? Not so much. It has nearly three times as many residents employed in health care and social work. The Economist writes: The share of New York City’s workers employed in finance and insurance has been in decline for
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October 30, 2025 — John Hinderaker
Rare earths have been in the news. I wrote here about the Trump administration’s agreement with Australia to develop rare earth deposits in that country, and Trump announced today that his trade agreement with China includes a one-year pause on China’s imposition of export controls on rare earths. Rare earths, happily, are not rare. But they are only one instance of a broader issue–our government’s suicidal decision to rely on
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October 24, 2025 — Bill Glahn
Last evening, the U.S. Senate adjourned until Monday, guaranteeing that the federal government “shutdown” will extend for a full four weeks. Before they left town, Senators confirmed the fifth federal judge this month, with two more teed up for Monday evening when they return. For his part, Pres. Trump will be off to Asia this weekend. The Hill newspaper reports, President Trump on Friday will travel to Asia for his
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October 15, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From CNBC, United Airlines’ summer earnings and profit outlook top estimates, but revenue falls short. To be clear, the airline’s revenue was still up for the third quarter (2.6%), just not up enough to meet even rosier analyst expectations. Skipping down to the very last paragraph in the CNBC story, In the spring and early summer, United and other carriers trimmed their earnings forecasts they made at the start of
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October 13, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From Newsweek, Hedge fund manager and billionaire Ray Dalio has warned that the U.S. may be entering a new kind of “civil war” amid rising inequality and debt, as well as a breakdown in the global geopolitical order. In an interview with Bloomberg TV which aired this week, the founder of Bridgewater Associates said that the forces which “shape the world” were all now being disrupted, and that America served
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October 12, 2025 — Bill Glahn
The decline and fall of Chicago has been ongoing for a number of years. The exodus from the city of financial powerhouse Citadel was announced back in 2022. Their founder and CEO was interviewed just last week on the move. Fox Business reports, Billionaire Ken Griffin said his hedge fund’s Chicago footprint will shrink to just two floors as crime, taxes and other challenges push employees to relocate to Miami
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September 20, 2025 — John Hinderaker
We hear constantly about the importance of the independence of the Federal Reserve. Fine: but what if the Fed isn’t independent of politics, it is just independent of, and hostile to, the administration that is in power? Some think that is the situation now before us. Stephen Moore comments on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s most recent pronouncements: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was full of doom and gloom yesterday [Wednesday], forecasting
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September 19, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From CNBC, Dow, S&P 500 close at fresh records, log big gains for the week after Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 index was up 0.5 percent on the day and up almost 1 percent for the week. CNBC quotes a market analyst, While September has historically delivered pullbacks, this year’s market has defied that pattern — climbing 35% since March with strong technical and fundamental tailwinds. Meanwhile, things aren’t
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September 19, 2025 — Bill Glahn
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued state-level unemployment statistics this morning and it was mostly bad news for jurisdictions that backed Kamala Harris last year. The headline, August jobless rates up in 3 states, down in 2; payroll jobs up in 1 state. I’ve spare you the suspense. Jobs were up significantly in Utah (Trump +21) and down in the District of Columbia (Harris +86). The unemployment rate
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September 18, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From CNBC, S&P 500, small-cap Russell close at all-time highs a day after Fed rate cut. Yes, yesterday the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and stocks reacted favorably. For the year-to-date, the S&P 500 index is up nearly 13 percent, and the index is up more than 10 percent since Trump’s 2nd inauguration on January 20. Meanwhile, Rasmussen Reports has Trump’s approval rate at 51-47,
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September 14, 2025 — Bill Glahn
We’re in one. The only question is in regard to current temperature. This site has been writing about the idea of a “cold civil war” going back to at least 2017 and to work by the late professor Angelo Codevilla. Scott quoted Prof. Codevilla back then and I reprint here: America is in the throes of revolution. The 2016 election and its aftermath reflect the distinction, difference, even enmity that
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September 9, 2025 — Bill Glahn
Zerohedge notes, 2 million jobs from the last 3 years of the Biden admin have now been revised away. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued a report today revising job totals from 2024 through March 2025 down by a massive 911,000. The BLS published a table showing the downward revisions by industry. Two industries actually showed modest gains. You will not be surprised that the figures for “government” hardly
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September 5, 2025 — Bill Glahn
The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for August and the year to date is out. BLS writes, Federal government employment continued to decline in August (-15,000) and is down by 97,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.) The overall report for August showed a job gain of 22,000,
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September 3, 2025 — John Hinderaker
The Committee to Unleash Prosperity has analyzed household income growth and decline during the first Trump administration and the Biden administration, as well as the eight Obama years. The results are striking: President Trump gained ten times more income for the average family than Joe Biden. Every income group did better under Trump than Biden — by a wide margin. *** Real median household income grew ten times more under
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August 28, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From the New York Post, Microsoft fires 2 staffers who broke into president’s office to protest Israel ties. Surprisingly, the firing took two business days, Microsoft said Thursday it fired two employees after an anti-Israel group broke into President Brad Smith’s office to protest the software firm’s alleged ties to the war in Gaza. A group of seven current and former staffers on Tuesday burst into Smith’s office, located in
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August 27, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From CNBC, S&P 500 closes at record high as traders brace for Nvidia earnings. It was the first new record high for the index in two weeks. The Nvidia earnings are in, Nvidia beats on top and bottom lines as data center revenue surges 56%. Alas, not everyone is happy. From Bloomberg, Nvidia Shares Down Postmarket With Earnings Call Underway. As you read these words, the above news could be
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August 22, 2025 — Bill Glahn
From Reuters, Dow notches record high as Wall Street cheers Powell’s speech. Apparently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, was widely interpreted as meaning interest rate cuts are coming as soon as next month. The S&P 500 index also surged today but closed just below the record level it set just last week. Reuters adds, Traders boosted bets on a September rate cut after Powell’s
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