Crunching the numbers in Iowa and peeking into Ohio

Yesterday, via a reader who follows Nevada politics closely who used early vote data as his starting point, we served up some number crunching on the status of the presidential election in Nevada. Today, Jim Geraghty performs the same kind of number crunching in Iowa.

Geraghty’s bottom line is that the situation in Iowa looks good for Romney, assuming that polls showing the Governor with a 9 point lead among independents who intend to vote on Election Day are accurate.

In Ohio, meanwhile, Geraghty finds evidence that the early vote is down from 2008 levels in the Cleveland area, a major Obama stronghold, and in Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati, where Obama prevailed by 5 points in 2008.