Clinton seems to have gotten a bounce

It’s too early to say for sure, but recent polling suggests that Hillary Clinton received a bounce from the Democratic convention. The magnitude of her bounce is unclear but looks to be of about the same magnitude as the one Donald Trump probably received from the Republican convention.

As I discussed here, heading into the Republican event, Clinton had in led four of the five most recent polls on the RCP list. After the convention, Trump led in the next four RCP-listed polls. His lead appeared to be approximately 2.5 points.

Today, the RCP list includes only one poll taken entirely after the Democratic convention ended. That poll, by PPP (a Democratic outfit), has Clinton up by 5 points.

Two other polls taken during the convention also put Clinton ahead. A Rasmussen poll, taken on Tuesday and Wednesday gives her a 1 point lead. A Reuters/Ispos poll taken on Monday through Friday has Clinton leading by 5 points.

But the polling news isn’t all bad for Trump. A Los Angeles Times/USC poll taken from Sunday through Friday shows him leading by 4 points. Trump, though, led by 7 points in the previous poll taken by this outfit (on July 20-26). Thus, even the one recent poll favorable to Trump suggests that Clinton received a bounce of around 3 points.

PPP found that Hillary Clinton’s net favorability rating, though still negative, has improved by 9 points since last month. It found that Trump’s is right where it was last month.

If one takes this at face value, it suggests that Clinton got more bounce from her convention than Trump did from his. However, PPP’s polling director says “it looks like the Republican and Democratic convention bounces have cancelled each other out and basically left the race where it was a month ago.”

That’s about what I expected after watching key portions of both extravaganzas. But we need to see a few more polls before we reach a firm conclusion on where the race stands and how the conventions influenced it.

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