Last night on Fox News,

Last night on Fox News, Michael Barone had an encouraging take on the Colorado Senate race. As we noted earlier this week, the most recent poll had Republican incumbent Wayne Allard leading Democrat Tom Strickland by 41 percent to 39 percent. These numbers are generally regarded as bad news for Allard because undecided voters usually tend to vote for the less known challenger. However, Barone thinks the Colorado race is an exception. He notes that Colorado has a large number of voters who are new to the state, and that these voters tend to be Republicans (I think they are mostly refugees from California). Barone suggests that the large number of undecided voters is less the result of reservations about Allard than a reflection of the fact that the new voters don’t know Allard very well. Barone thinks that these new voters will tend to vote for Allard in the end due to party loyalty. Barone also sees Allard gaining momentum and went so far as to predict a Republican victory in that race.

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