Rasmussen has President Bush ahead of John Kerry by four points today, up from a tie yesterday and a one-point lead the day before. He is also showing Bush’s approval rating up to 54%.
Three-quarters of the Rasmussen interviews were conducted after the first night of the convention, and half were conducted after the second night. None were conducted after last night’s speeches.
It’s hard for me to believe that this represents a real, convention-related bounce. We’ll know in a few days, I guess.
One observation about John Kerry: I don’t see him as a come from behind candidate. If he gets more than a couple of points down, I think he’s in deep trouble. Why? President Bush is a known commodity. Nothing is likely to happen between now and November that will significantly change voters’ perceptions of him. As for Kerry, he isn’t a good enough campaigner to move his ratings much. I expect his performance in the debates to be mediocre to poor; in fact, I think Bush will get a small bounce from the debates because many people will be surprised that Kerry doesn’t do better. And Kerry certainly isn’t going to come up with a wonderful policy proposal between now and November that will change the landscape.
So, in my opinion, if Kerry really is behind now, he’s in trouble.
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