At Election Projection, Scott Elliott (“the Blogging Caesar”) does not quite detect the “Republican surge” that John referred to over the weekend, though his analysis is not markedly inconsistent with John’s. Scott reports in his weekly update:
“A whole lot of nothing going on.” Despite twenty race rating changes this week, the top line in the governorships and both chambers of Congress remains unchanged from last week. I said last week that the GOP had hit bottom. So far, I think the polls are bearing that out. On Tuesday, Minnesota CD-6 went blue. But on Friday, that was counteracted by Connecticut CD-2 turning back to red. Overall, the polls toward the end of this week – excepting some bizarre New York polls from Constituent Dynamics – have begun to take on a slightly rosier hue.
On the House side, did anyone see that Selzer & Co. poll from Indiana CD-7? When I saw the GOP candidate ahead by 3 points, my heart sank a bit thinking that another safe GOP seat was getting competitive. Then I realized that IN-7 is a Democratic seat. Well, lo and behold! I think we will see this trend of more GOP-favorable polls continue over the last 17 days. By the way, let me confirm once again that I stand by all three of the edicts I decreed earlier this year.
The GOP will hold the House – April 24
The GOP will hold the Senate – April 28
Lieberman will win in Connecticut – August 10
In the Senate, though not much happened last week, look for polls this week in Tennessee and Missouri to show Corker and Talent with small leads, respectively. And look for Allen’s lead to grow some in Virginia next week as well. The huge financial advantage enjoyed by several GOP senate candidates should start to pay dividends in some of these close races. I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are very, very slim.
Overall, it is clear to me that the GOP has indeed turned the corner – if it was ever really down in the first place. My only real worry at this point is another “October surprise.”
Please note that Scott is making his premium content available for free until tonight — enter “guest” for username and “guest” for password to take a look. After this evening you may also want to take a look at Scott’s “Name your price” subscription program to continue access through election day and beyond. In 2004, Scott was one of the most accurate predictors of the presidential race. Using his own formula, he projected the eventual outcome within three electoral votes, correctly predicting 48 of 50 states.