Karl Rove’s Crystal Ball

How well will Republicans do in November? The election is still a long way away, but Karl Rove puts today’s numbers in the context of recent history and finds reason for great optimism:

The GOP also enjoys a lead in the polls that now sample likely voters. In Rasmussen, the GOP is ahead 44% to 37%.
Intensity matters as well. The latest Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll reports two-thirds of Republicans are “extremely” or “very” interested in the midterms, compared to only half of Democrats. Older voters are almost twice as likely as younger voters to be interested; and seniors now favor the GOP 50% to 41%. …
Another important metric for the fall is the turnout for primaries. Is it rising or falling compared to four years ago? The results so far are bad for Democrats. For example, in Ohio, Democratic participation was down 24% over the last midterm while GOP turnout was up 64%.

The Democrats hold an edge in money, as always, but at this point it doesn’t look disproportionate enough to be a major factor.

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