Last night, Paul noted that there are a number of House races around the country being classified as “leans Democratic” that are in fact toss-ups at best. We can add that there are other races being termed “toss-ups” where the Republican should be considered a strong favorite.
Thus, The Hill reports that Charlie Cook has moved several races from “leans Democratic” to “toss-up”:
Reps. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.), John Boccieri (D-Ohio) and Earl Pomeroy (D-N.D.) were three of the new additions to Cook’s toss-up list. Boyd barely survived a primary challenge last Tuesday in a race that turned out to be much closer than most were predicting. And Boccieri and Pomeroy both won easily in 2008, but now find themselves looking over their shoulders ahead of November.
Some toss-ups! Pomeroy is toast; he hasn’t led his Republican opponent, Rick Berg, all year, as far as I am aware, and the most recent “likely voter” poll has Berg ahead by nine points, 53-44. Pomeroy has always been too liberal for his North Dakota constituents, and his voting record seems to have caught up with him. Likewise in Ohio, where the only poll listed on Real Clear Politics, taken earlier this month, shows Boccieri’s Republican opponent, Jim Renacci, leading by a hefty 14 points, 49-35.
If these are the kinds of races the Democrats are viewing as 50-50, they are in even deeper trouble than I thought.