A new Gallup poll, covering the period September 19-25, shows President Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by 50 percent to 44 percent. As is its practice, Gallup polled registered, rather than only likely, voters.
This lead is comparable to what Gallup showed following the Democratic convention. But that lead had disappeared, with Gallup showing Obama leading by a statistically insignificant 47-46 margin last week.
Has the race changed this much in Obama’s favor in the past few days, and if so why? Beats me. Perhaps Romney’s “47 percent” comment is hurting him; that wouldn’t be surprising.
With the latest Gallup poll factored in, the RCP average gives Obama a 4 point lead. If one considers only Rasmussen and Gallup (which represent two of the three most recent polls in the RCP average), the average is Obama by 3 points. That’s about where I think the race stands right now.