Scott Brown appears to be closing the gap in New Hampshire

Yesterday, I wrote about a new poll from Kellyanne Conway’s firm that found substantial public support for a hard line on immigration policy. Other pollsters may be seeing the same phenomenon because certain Republican Senate candidates — notably Scott Brown, Tom Cotton, and Terri Lind Land — have been running ads sounding the hard line theme. Given the diversity of the states in question — purple Michigan, red Arkansas, and blue Michigan — one senses that this issue has potential resonance in any jurisdiction where Hispanic representation is low.

How effective have the ads been? It’s not clear. But a new survey in New Hampshire shows Scott Brown within two points of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. A month ago, Brown was trailing by about 10 points.

The latest poll, by WMUR/UNH, may be an outlier. Furthermore, it would be impossible, with any certainty, to attribute a Brown turnaround to his ads on immigration. Brown happens to be an excellent campaigner, and Shaheen is vulnerable on a range of issues including Obamacare.

But it’s plausible to believe that Brown’s immigration-based attacks are helping him close the gap in New Hampshire.

What about Arkansas and Michigan? I haven’t seen any poll numbers from either state since Tom and Land launched their immigration ads in early August. Prior to that time, Tom held a slender lead over Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Land had pulled close in Michigan, but was trailing Rep. Gary Peters.

We should be seeing new data from both states soon, as well as New Hampshire results that will help us assess whether Brown truly is in serious contention.

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