Senate

Fox declares that Tammy Baldwin will defeat Tommy Thompson (Update: Sherrod Brown wins in Ohio)

Thompson’s defeat surprises me a little. Wisconsin has tilted back to the Dems. As for the Senate as a whole, it may be a scramble just to keep the current 53(D)-47(R) composition. STEVE adds: I’m not hugely surprised by this.  I thought all along that Thompson was the GOP’s Mondale; past his time; worn out his welcome.  I thought he’d probably win, but thought he’d be vulnerable if he ran »

Mixed Senate polling news

Featured image Massachusetts: A UMass/Boston Herald poll has Scott Brown leading Elizabeth Warren by 1 point, 49-48, among likely voters. However, other recent pollsfind Warren ahead by about 5 points. UMass/Boston Herald has been an outlier in this race before. In September, it found Brown ahead by 4 points at a time when Warren was ahead in nearly every other poll. This doesn’t that the UMass/Boston Herald results should be discounted. However, »

The battle for the Senate revisited

Featured image The Washington Post reports that Republican fortunes have improved in the battle for the Senate, “encouraging Republican hopes that they may yet snag the chamber which very recently seemed beyond their reach.” The Post adds, however, that to accomplish this, Republicans will need to win nearly all of the close races. The Post attributes the improved outlook for Republicans to the surge of Mitt Romney. That’s a reasonable conclusion. Let’s »

Comment on familiar subject places another Senate pick-up in jeopardy

Featured image Richard Mourdock, a Republican, is locked in a tight Senate race in Indiana with Democrat Joe Donnelly to replace Richard Lugar, whom Mourdock defeated during the primary season. Although Mourdock hasn’t been able to pull away, he appears to be leading by about 5 points. In his debate tonight against Donnelly, however, Mourdock may have opened the door for Donnelly in basically the same way that Todd Akin did for »

Good news from Wisconsin

Featured image A new poll of Wisconsin voters by Marquette Law School (when it comes to polling, it seems that everyone’s getting into the act) provides good news for both Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson. The poll has Romney in a virtual tie with President Obama (Obama 49, Romney 48). It also has Thompson virtually deadlocked with his opponent Tammy Baldwin (Thompson 46, Baldwin 45). The poll demonstrates the significance of the »

Observations on the Pennsylvania and Missouri Senate races

Featured image A new Quinnipiac poll confirms that the Pennsylvania Senate race has tightened considerably. According to Qunnipiac’s survey, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey now leads Republican challenger Tom Smith by only 3 points, 48-45. Two other recent polls of this race are in line with Quinnipiac’s. Rasmussen has Casey ahead 49-45 and the Morning Call newspaper has Casey up 41-39. Only PPP, a Democrat shop, shows Casey maintaining his once big lead »

Is the Florida Senate race now close?

Featured image Today brings word of two new Rasmussen Senate polls — one from Virginia, the other from Florida. The Virginia poll shows Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen in a virtual tie, with Kaine at 48 percent and Allen at 47. That’s basically old news. Kaine and Allen have been deadlocked in most polls throughout the campaign season. In Florida, Rasmussen has Democrat incumbent Bill Nelson virtually tied with challenger »

It’s past time for the Republican establishment to back Todd Akin

Featured image The deadline for Todd Akin to withdraw from the Missouri Senate race has passed, and Akin remains a candidate. No surprise there; it’s been clear for quite some time that Akin is committed to fighting for this seat. And it looks like he has a chance to win it. That, at least, is the view presented pretty persuasively in two articles by Politico. The most recent Rasmussen poll had Akin »

New poll shows Rehberg leading Tester in Montana

Featured image A new poll of the Senate race in Montana shows Denny Rehberg leading incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by a margin of 48 to 45. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for Lee Newspapers in Montana. Rehberg’s lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. Nonetheless, an incumbent Senator who polls at below 50 percent a month and a half before the »

Scott Brown won last night’s debate, voters say

Featured image According to a poll by Kimball Political Consulting, Massachusetts voters believe that Scott Brown won his debate last night with Elizabeth Warren. 50 percent of likely voters who watched the debate said that Brown won, compared to 40 percent for Warren. Six percent thought the debate was a tie and 4 percent were undecided. The poll also found that 55 percent of likely voters watched the debate. Kimball, it should »

Conflicting polling as Brown and Warren head into tonight’s debate

Featured image Following the Democratic Convention, intial polling suggested that Elizabeth Warren had taken the lead over Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race. More recently, a poll by WBUR/MassINC put Warren ahead by 5 points, 47-42. But now comes a poll by UMass Lowell/Boston Herald, taken during basically the same period as the WBUR poll, that puts Brown ahead by 50-44. The poll also shows, however, that Brown’s lead (assuming the »

The state of play in Virginia

Featured image The Viginia Senate race has, according to nearly every poll, been basically deadlocked for months. However, yesterday a CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll, taken between Sept. 11 and 17, showed Democrat Tim Kaine leading George Allen by 7 points, 51-44. Fortunately, the poll looks like an outlier. A Rasmussen poll (from Sept. 12) showed Kaine up by only 2 points, 47-45. And PPP (Sept. 13-16) had the race Kaine 47-Allen 46. The Virginia »

A look at the Senate battlefield (September edition)

Featured image In early August, I attempted an analysis of Republican prospects for winning control of the Senate. I concluded that this battle was too close to call, but suggested that the party that wins the White House in November will also have control of the Senate when it convenes in January 2013. Much has happened since I wrote this analysis. So let’s update it. The Republicans now hold 47 seats. They »

Is Elizabeth Warren Martha Coakley with a fake ethnicity? Part Three

Featured image A reader who is closely following the Scott Brown-Elizabeth Warren race offers these observations: In the beginning of the campaign when Warren was struggling with her lies about her fake indian roots, her candidacy was as deep as a kiddie pool. She was like a broken record spouting the same exact [lines] over and over and over no matter what the question to her was. If you asked her about »

Is Elizabeth Warren Martha Coakley with a fake ethnicity, Part Two

Featured image Last week, I compared Elizabeth Warren to Martha Coakley, the Democrat who lost “Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat” to Scott Brown. Today, Politico confirms that Warren, like Coakley, is struggling against Brown, albeit more glamorously. A PPP poll in mid-August gave Brown a 5 point lead. That’s the same margin by which Brown defeated Coakley Politico notes that Warren is losing about a fifth of Democratic voters to Brown, and that »

Poll suggests that Akin may be back in the hunt

Featured image A poll taken by PPP on August 28 and 29 has Sen. Claire McCaskill leading Republican challenger Todd Akin by only one point, 45-44. PPP is the same organization that showed McCaskill leading Akin by only one point just after Akin made his stupid remark about rape and reproduction. However, in that poll PPP oversampled Republicans to the tune of 39% R and only 30% D. In PPP’s latest poll »

Is Elizabeth Warren Martha Coakley with a fake ethnicity?

“Elizabeth Warren was supposed to be the Great Liberal Hope, the one Democrat tough enough to evict Scott Brown from Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat. Then she started campaigning.” So begins a devastating critique of Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy that appeared in Boston Magazine. Shockingly, as the reader who alerted me to this article put it, the Harvard prof who lives in Cambridge isn’t connecting in the suburbs with middle class and »