The number of deaths per day in the U.S. attributed to the Wuhan coronavirus has spiked again. After falling from 1,900-2,000 per day to 1,500-1,600 early this week, the number rocketed to 2,407 on Tuesday and 2,735 yesterday (April 15).
This reversal is due in considerable, if not entire, part to a change in New York City in how certain deaths are classified. Some deaths that have been treated as due to other causes are now being attributed to the Wuhan coronavirus.
As I have noted from time to time, there is no agreed upon way to decide whether certain deaths are due to the virus. Indeed, we may not fully understand all of the ways in which this virus can cause death. For example, there is talk that the virus may cause strokes by blocking blood vessels leading to the brain.
With the change in how deaths are attributed, the total number of reported deaths from the virus now exceeds 33,000. Without the change, the number might be 1,000-2,000 less.
The IHME model has come in for justified criticism for being far too pessimistic about hospitalizations due to the virus. However, I’ve thought for some time that its estimate of total U.S. deaths from the virus — a little over 60,000 — is too optimistic. I continue to think so. We might hit that number by the end of the month.
What about reported new cases per day in the U.S.? That number is holding steady this week at between 27,000-31,000 per day, an improvement from a week ago (31,000-34,000 per day). Yesterday was at the high end of this week’s range.
I suppose this is what must pass for progress in the one-sided battle against the Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S.
