Economy
April 5, 2025 — Bill Glahn
Way up. Lost (or forgotten) in the continuing stock market “carnage” on Friday was an amazingly good employment report issued by the U.S. Dept. of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The headline from this morning’s Wall Street Journal, Hiring Defied Expectations in March, With 228,000 New Jobs. “Defying expectations,” the March number came in above even the high end of analyst predictions. Reuters reports on what had been expected,
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April 5, 2025 — Bill Glahn
‘If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” That’s the quote from the late economist Herbert Stein. Some facts to consider: U.S. share of world population: 4% U.S. share of world GDP: 26% U.S. share of world wealth: 29% U.S. share of world debt: 35% U.S. share of worldwide military spending: 37% U.S. share of worldwide foreign aid: 40% The above figures are not sustainable. Well, actually, they were
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April 3, 2025 — Scott Johnson
Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the IMF. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Professor Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence and on exchange rates. He
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April 2, 2025 — John Hinderaker
President Trump announced his new tariff regime today. Protectionism has long been a key part of his political program, although it was much more talk than action during his first term. (As I have said before, customs revenue was higher during Joe Biden’s administration than during Trump’s.) This time around, Trump appears to be serious, for better or worse. The Wall Street Journal summarizes the high points: * There’s a
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April 2, 2025 — John Hinderaker
Democrats thought they had a great issue in the high price of eggs, due mostly to avian bird flu. In January, they were touting record-high egg prices as proof of the failure of Trump’s administration–even though the figures released in January were for December, before Trump’s inauguration. Weirdly, the Democrats’ harping on eggs has continued even as the price has plummeted, as in this LA Times column, published on March
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March 24, 2025 — John Hinderaker
The financial markets have been tanked by the threat of economic damage from President Trump’s tariffs–or that is the narrative, anyway. Democrats are hoping for a full-blown recession, which they are already labeling the “Trump recession.” But perhaps stocks have mostly pulled back a little from high valuations, as happens all the time. As of today, the Dow is down 3.3% from January 20, when Trump was inaugurated. The S&P
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March 11, 2025 — John Hinderaker
As someone once said, you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. And apparently you can’t attack President Trump without talking about them, either. Although what Trump had to do with bird flu, or Biden-era regulations that made it more expensive to keep chickens, no one has explained. In any event, Democrats will have to move on to something else: So Democrats will have to come up with something new.
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January 21, 2025 — John Hinderaker
Most economists are conservative, but there is always a market for liberal ones. We’ve all seen the headlines in Democratic papers: 50 economists say Trump’s tariffs will cause a recession! Sort of like the 51 intelligence professionals who are experts on Russian disinformation. So I found this report on J.P. Morgan refreshing: Wall Street giant JPMorgan has set up a Donald Trump ‘war room’ as the 47th president announces a
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January 6, 2025 — John Hinderaker
Of all Donald Trump’s policy positions, his sympathy for tariffs is among the most controversial. We are constantly told that “Trump’s tariffs” will ignite a trade war, damage the world economy, and raise prices in the U.S. As with other hysterical fears of what Trump might do in his second term–internment camps!–it makes sense to look at what actually happened during his first term. The simplest source is the U.S.
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December 17, 2024 — John Hinderaker
This is one of the most striking facts I have come across in a long time: US companies now account for 65% of the world’s total market capitalization. Via Stephen Moore’s Unleash Prosperity Hotline: No wonder all the traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange broke out in a “USA, USA, USA” chant when Trump visited last week. The HOTLINE has frequently reported on the rising global
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December 13, 2024 — Scott Johnson
Earlier this week President Biden wandered up the street from the White House to the Brookings Institution. At Brookings Biden regurgitated the talking points he has cited in support of his economic record. The White House has posted the text of his speech under the groaning title Remarks by President Biden on His Middle-Out, Bottom-Up Economic Playbook.” I have posted the Reuters video at the bottom. Biden was introduced by
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December 12, 2024 — John Hinderaker
China claims to have discovered the world’s largest deposit of gold: China is claiming to have unearthed the largest gold deposit in the world — estimated to be worth more than $80 billion. More than 1,000 tons of gold reserves and ore veins were allegedly discovered by geologists from the Hunan Provincial Geological Institute some 12 miles beneath the surface in China’s Pingjiang County, according to China state media. The
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December 11, 2024 — John Hinderaker
I have been saying for a long time that you can vote for conservatism, but you can’t get it. Government grows and regulations multiply, inexorably and independent of any will expressed by voters. But maybe that is about to change. In some ways, you wouldn’t expect Donald Trump to be the president who finally delivers real conservatism to the voters. But, if you are willing to indulge some optimism, that
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November 25, 2024 — John Hinderaker
Martha Njolomole was born in Malawi, one of the poorest nations in Africa, and a country where pretty much all economic activity is controlled by the government. She grew up in a household that had neither running water nor electricity. Nor did her family own any books. Through a combination of talent and extraordinary diligence, Martha won a scholarship to study in the United States. She was stunned by what
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October 4, 2024 — John Hinderaker
The stock market was boosted today by a “blockbuster” jobs report. “The economy” added 254,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% This was good news for the Kamala Harris campaign, which probably was the intended effect. Anyone who has followed the shenanigans at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in recent years will greet these numbers with skepticism. There have been two obvious trends: First, new jobs have overwhelmingly
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September 24, 2024 — John Hinderaker
The commercial real estate market is in the doldrums across much of the U.S., but it is especially bad in some places. Like Minneapolis. John Phelan relates the bad news: Last week, the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal reported: Two downtown Minneapolis office towers have sold in a deal representing one of the core’s steepest discounts in recent history. The 634,000-square-foot Forum buildings, previously known as International Centre and Oracle Centre,
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August 24, 2024 — Lloyd Billingsley
With his daughter in the running for president, Donald Harris’ 1978 Capital Accumulation and Income Distribution is getting attention. Check out this anonymous review in the July 24 Economist: The probable Democratic nominee for president breaks into a laugh at the turn of phrase before explaining, somewhat philosophically, the message of the story: “you exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” For
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