Author Archives: Paul Mirengoff

Who’s ahead in Iowa?

Featured image Michael Barone has predicted that Mitt Romney will carry Iowa. The polls, however, tend to favor President Obama. NBC/WSJ/Marist shows President Obama up by 6 percentage points — 50 to 44 percent; Gravis Marketing shows Obama up 4 points — 49 to 45 percent; WeAskAmerica shows Obama up 1.5 points — 48.8 to 47.3 percent; while Rasmussen shows Mitt Romney up 1 point — 49 to 48 percent. At the »

Republicans have their work cut out for them in Nevada

Featured image Although Michael Barone predicts that Mitt Romney will be elected pretty handily, he gives President Obama the edge in Nevada: Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama [to win the State]. »

Dumbest Washington Post op-ed ever?

Featured image Considering that the Washington Post regularly runs columns by the likes of Eugene Robinson, E.J. Dionne, and Dana Milbank — few of which I read — I’m hesitant to declare any Post op-ed its dumbest ever. Yet this piece by Colbert King, which argues that Mitt Romney may well be the new Andrew Johnson, surely is a strong contender. Johnson was the racist president who succeeded Abraham Lincoln. Johnson tried »

Afghanistan missing from candidates’ “closing arguments”

Featured image Today’s Wall Street Journal contains “closing argument” statements by Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. President Obama mentions Afghanistan once in part of a sentence that talks about “ending” – not winning – “the wars.” Romney says nothing about Afghanistan. A friend writes: Think about this for a second: America has been at war in Afghanistan for 11 years; Americans are currently fighting and dying there; and neither candidate for president »

The House, at least, will be Republican-controlled

Featured image Republican control of the Senate, once a very reasonable prospect, now seems unlikely. The race for the White House, to the extent one relies heavily on current polls, is too close to call. But at least it’s nearly certain that Republicans will retain control of the House. The Washington Post’s “Fix” is basically in-line with other forecasters in projecting that “the 2012 race for the House is likely to be »

Yet another Benghazigate question

Featured image Last night, John wrote about the information revealed in documents found by two reporters for Foreign Policy when they visited the Benghazi consulate, six weeks after the terrorist attack there. The documents include letters, drafted on the day of the attack, that suggest the compliticity of Libyan officials in the terrorist attack on the consulate. The discovery of these documents raises additional questions relevant to Benghazigate. A threshold question, propounded »

Crunching the numbers in Iowa and peeking into Ohio

Featured image Yesterday, via a reader who follows Nevada politics closely who used early vote data as his starting point, we served up some number crunching on the status of the presidential election in Nevada. Today, Jim Geraghty performs the same kind of number crunching in Iowa. Geraghty’s bottom line is that the situation in Iowa looks good for Romney, assuming that polls showing the Governor with a 9 point lead among »

Rudy Giuliani unloads

Featured image In the video below, Rudy Giuliani blasts President Obama over his response in New York to Hurricane Sandy and his lack of response to the attack in Benghazi. It is vintage Giuliani. Frankly, I’m not one to criticize presidents because big problems remain following a natural disaster or for not visiting this or that affected location. On the other hand, unlike Chris Christie, I’m not one to effusively praise a »

Report: Key task force not convened during Benghazi attack

Featured image President Obama has claimed that “the minute” he became aware of the Benghazi attack, he directed his staff to “make sure that we are securing our personnel and doing whatever we need to do.” But CBS News reports that one thing Obama and his staff didn’t do was to convene its top interagency counterterrorism resource: the Counterterrorism Security Group, (CSG). “The CSG is the one group that’s supposed to know »

The latest from Rasmussen

Featured image Ramussen has released new polls from three important states: Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Here are the results: Colorado — Romney 50, Obama 47 Iowa — Romney 49, Obama 48 Wisconsin — Romney 49, Obama 49 Earlier this week, a Rasmussen poll showed Romney leading in the most important of all states, Ohio, by 50 to 48. All of these results seem plausible to me. However, if you shifted the margins »

Crunching the numbers in Nevada

Featured image In response to my post about early voting in Nevada, an astute (but admittedly partisan) reader from that state crunches the numbers, makes a few assumptions, and concludes that Romney has a pretty good shot at carrying Nevada: For what it is worth here is my back of the envelope review of where we are at in NV. The NV early voting is now about D+6½ which is a modest »

From Walter Judd to Tom Freidman

Featured image I loved John’s demonstration of Tom Friedman’s ignorance of Minnesota politics which I consider one of the best Power Line posts in recent memory. John’s takedown of Friedman included, among other gems, this: Friedman’s suggestion that in the 1950s and 1960s Minnesota Republicans were all liberals is absurd. Minnesota Congressmen of the era included rock-ribbed conservative Al Quie, John Zwach, who headed the Conservative Caucus as a member of the »

Why do the national polls tell us one thing and the battleground state polls tell us another?

Featured image Many of us have been puzzled by the conflicting signals sent out by national polling (good news for Romney) and state polling (mostly good news for Obama). The disparity has led to speculation that Romney might well win the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College. But the normal odds against such an occurrence make us wonder whether something is amiss with either the national or the state polling. »

Romney more likely to break gridlock, poll finds

Featured image Although preference polls portray the presidential race as essentially deadlocked, polling on fundamental issues continues to favor Mitt Romney. The latest such poll comes from AP. It finds that 47 percent of likely voters believe Romney would be better than President Obama at ending the “logjam” in Washington, while only 37 percent say Obama would be better than Romney in this respect. The same poll finds Romney leading Obama by »

The Chris Christie-Barack Obama love fest, an October surprise

Featured image Am I the only Republican who is shaking his head over the effusive praise Chris Christie is showering on President Obama in connection with the federal response to Hurricane Sandy? As Politico reports, Obama and Christie “cemented their new-found mutual admiration society on Wednesday, as the men gushed with praise for one another while touring damage from Hurricane Sandy on the devastated Jersey Shore.” According to Politico, in the course »

The facts about Benghazi are known; the only thing that remains is to disclose them

Featured image In an interview with Fox News, which you can see below, former Attorney General Michael Mukasey lays out with great clarity the case that the Obama administration has been incompetent and dishonest when it comes to the Benghazi attack. This is true, he says, of the lead-up to the events of September 11 (when protection was denied the consulate in spite of previous attacks against the Brits and the Red »

A look at the early vote, nationally and in Nevada

Featured image A Pew Research Poll finds that Mitt Romney leads President Obama among those who have already voted by a margin of 50-43. One-fifth of likely voters have already cast their ballots, according to Pew. However, Pew deems Romney’s margin with this group statistically insignificant due to the small sample size. Overall, Pew found Romney and Obama tied nationally at 47 percent each. To the extent that Romney is doing better »