I have been following developments in our conflict with Iran via the dry daily Iran updates posted by General Keane’s Institute for the Study of War. This is the second paragraph of ISW’s July 18 update (emphasis in original, footnote omitted):
An Iranian missile attack on a base in Jordan killed two US service members on July 17. A third service member is missing in action. Unspecified US officials told Western media that the attack took place at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase in Azraq, Jordan. It is not clear which missiles Iran used in the attack. Two US officials said that Iran struck the base earlier this week and the US service members suffered minor injuries.
The deaths of our service members appears to have provoked an escalation in strikes by our forces that have been intensifying over the past few days in any event. Centcom announced that we launched launched retaliatory strikes to punish the regime for targeting Americans and to degrade its ability to target shipping. The Wall Street Journal reports: “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Saturday that the loss of the servicemembers would stiffen the U.S.’s resolve.”
The ISW update also reports (emphasis in original, footnotes omitted):
Iran is adapting to US defenses by firing high-speed, maneuverable missiles at US bases in the region, which highlights the threat that the advancement of Iran’s ballistic missile program poses to US national security interests. US officials told the Wall Street Journal on July 18 that Iran is using missiles that “travel at extremely high speeds and can maneuver as they streak toward the earth.” Iranian leaders have expressed interest since at least the Iranian strikes on Israel in April and October 2024 in employing maneuverable reentry vehicles in order to improve the relatively low accuracy of Iranian missiles. All ballistic missiles have a circular error probable (CEP), which is the “radius of a circle, centered at the intended target, within which 50 percent of the missiles would be expected to impact.” The stated and publicly known CEPs of Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles are between 20 and 500 meters.
A maneuverable reentry vehicle can be used to evade anti-ballistic missile systems or improve the accuracy of ballistic missiles by altering their trajectory during the terminal stage of flight. Iranian leaders examined using maneuverable reentry vehicles and other technical improvements to missile accuracy after the 12-Day June 2025 War. Such improvements could make individual projectiles harder to intercept and more destructive. Iran still struggled with relatively poor missile accuracy in its strikes against Israeli military targets in March and April 2026, however, which likely pushed Iran to deploy cluster munitions at a greater scale in order to maximize damage.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia are likely supporting Iranian efforts to target US bases in the region. US officials told the Wall Street Journal on July 18 that they are concerned that the PRC and Russia are supporting recent Iranian targeting of US assets. Both countries have supported Iranian targeting during the conflict thus far. Iran used an advanced reconnaissance satellite purchased from the PRC in 2024 to target US military assets and bases across the Middle East in spring 2026, according to the Financial Times in April 2026. The Washington Post separately reported in March 2026 that Russia was providing Iran with the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, to support Iranian attacks against US forces. Russia is also reportedly sharing advanced drone tactics with Iran to support Iranian attacks against US forces and assets. Iran likely continues to rely on its key partners to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of its attacks.
As for escalation, we are reportedly sending dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel ahead further attacks on Iran’s forces and, according to the X post below, we may have gone a step beyond previous attacks with our most recent strikes.
UPDATE: In lieu of the unreliable X post I concluded with originally here, see the NBC News, see the NBC News story “U.S. strikes bridges around key port in Iran, expanding campaign in battle over Hormuz” (“Tehran hit back with new attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East on Friday, including a first direct attack on a Syrian base”). Apart from the anouncement of the service members lost to the Iranian strike at our base in Jordan yesterday, Centcom’s most recent post is below.
Sailors prepare U.S. Marine Corps F-35B stealth fighter jets for takeoff aboard USS Boxer (LHD 4) while transiting the Arabian Sea. Boxer is the flagship for the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group / 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. pic.twitter.com/hyNJILD17i
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 19, 2026
Centcom has also just announced the death of an American service member in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of a downed Iranian attack drone. The Cenctom post announcing the death of this service member is below.
Centcom has also announced the death of an American service member in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of a downed Iranian attack drone.
