Trump Bounces Back

I wrote here and here that, although the Democrats’ impeachment claims are frivolous, they have hurt President Trump in the polls. Trump’s history is that he tends to rise in the polls until a negative news cycle hits–which happens often–and then he will drop back down.

In the latter post, I noted that before the impeachment frenzy struck, Trump had been rising in the Rasmussen survey. He was at 53% approval among likely voters as of September 24, a number that if maintained suggests a clear path to re-election. The coupling of the words “Trump” and “impeachment” in newspaper headlines–the real purpose of the Democrats’ impeachment drive–drove Trump’s approval numbers in the same survey all the way down to 45% on October 8, against 52% disapproval.

Since then, Trump’s numbers have been climbing back up, presumably as more voters become aware of how silly the Democrats’ grounds for impeachment are. As of yesterday, Trump had made up half of his decline over the prior two weeks, with 49% approval against 50% disapproval. My guess is that he will continue to rise until the Democrats come up with their next stratagem to generate negative headlines.

The Rasmussen survey is valuable, by the way, for several reasons. It is the only daily presidential approval poll, based on a rolling three-day average. It also samples only likely voters, unlike virtually every other poll conducted outside the later stages of an election campaign. Whether Rasmussen’s numbers are accurate as a predictor depends on whether the likely voter model holds up. But regardless of whether the numbers are high, low, or exactly right, Rasmussen’s unique status as a rolling daily poll makes it an important indicator of trends. At the moment, things are trending the president’s way.

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