Here’s the chart that suggests why Trump will be re-elected next November:
A strong economy with rising wages across the board (but especially for low-wage workers) is always a formula for re-election. And this didn’t happen because of high minimum wage laws in Seattle. Peggy Noonan observed yesterday in her Wall Street Journal column:
A Quinnipiac poll released Dec. 10 showed that since February 2018, the share of the population who believe the Republicans handle the economy better than the Democrats has gone up seven points, from 42% to 49%. The share who say they are better off financially since 2016 is 57%.
That is a powerful number. When people have peace and prosperity they don’t like to make a change at the top. That’s what saved Bill Clinton when he was impeached. They knew he’d done what he was accused of, but they let it go.
The left knows this, which is one reason it is doubling down on identity politics (diversity!) and free stuff. Funny thing about all the free stuff, though: lots of Democrats aren’t wild about it, as even the New York Times noticed this week:
Only one in four Democratic voters says they would favor eliminating private health insurance and replacing it with a government-run plan — the centerpiece of the “Medicare for all” proposals put forward by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. And only one in three favors making public college tuition free for all Americans regardless of income, another idea shared by the two leading progressives in the race. . .
The preference for more moderate policies cuts across age groups, races, education levels and even ideology: Among Democrats who said they were “liberal” or “very liberal,” only 30 percent chose the most progressive option for health care reform. . . Some said they thought the most liberal positions went too far or questioned whether they would work in practice.
Noonan, again, in this same point:
The broader reality helping the president, fortifying his position and that of his party, is one of the insufficiently noted stories of 2019. In terms of politics it is the story of 2019, bigger than impeachment. It is that, poised to defeat an unpopular president, the Democratic Party picked itself up—and placed itself outside the mainstream of American politics.
In almost every national public presentation this year, especially in their presidential debates, they branded themselves not as what they had to be—a sophisticated party with a working-class heart—but what they couldn’t be—extreme left-wing progressives.
I have a simple theory for the Democrats’ dramatic lurch to the left: they thought that Donald Trump is so weak and so easily beatable that the 2020 election offered a once-in-a-lifetime chance to go for broke, and run with the most radical platform ever. It looks increasingly to be a suicidal proposition.
Check out this Tweet from a few days ago:
For fans of “pattern recognition,” maybe there are some important trends behind this. If this pattern repeats itself here next November, the “I’m moving to Canada!” shrieks will reach a new record.
Let’s let the great “Titania McGrath” have the last word on the left’s outlook both here and abroad: