There is evidence that young voters have started to outgrow Bernie Sanders. Allysia Finley of The Wall Street Journal presents it in this piece.
It’s true that young voters still prefer Sanders to Joe Biden. But Sanders’s margins are down from 2016 and so is youth turnout in relative terms:
Mr. Sanders won 74% of those under 30 in last week’s Michigan primary, according to exit polls. But that was down from 81% in 2016. Their share of the electorate also declined, to 15% from 19%. Voters over 45 made up 63% of the Michigan electorate this year, compared with 55% in 2016. They overwhelmingly favored Joe Biden.
Sanders’s level of support was sharply down from 2016 in New Hampshire (26 points), Nevada (17 points), Massachusetts and Virginia (17 points) and North Carolina (15 points). In these states, of course, Sanders faced a crowded field that included Elizabeth Warren, a hard leftist. But in Michigan, Sanders faced only Biden, and still shed seven points from four years ago.
Moreover, the relative decrease in the youth vote has been constant throughout the primary season. According to Finley, exit polls show voters under 30 made up a smaller share of the Democratic electorate this year than in 2016 in New Hampshire (6 percentage points), South Carolina (4), Alabama (4) North Carolina (4), Tennessee (4), Texas (5), and Virginia (3).
What explains the decline in support and enthusiasm for Sanders among young voters? Perhaps the economy (as it was until two weeks ago) provides a partial answer. Finley points out that “wages for young workers are rising faster than for any other age group.”
Maturation might be another factor. The Sanders voters of 2016 are four years older now. On the other hand, there’s a new batch of eligible voters in their late teens and early 20s.
Finley observes that support for Sanders among millennials in their 30s has been considerably lower than among those in their 20s. It was always likely that millennials would outgrow Sanders as they moved from their 20s to their 30s, but it’s encouraging to see evidence that this is the case.
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