Talk about getting off to a flying start on Super Tuesday, the polls in Virginia haven’t been closed for even hour and only a small fraction of the vote has been counted. Yet, Joe Biden has already been declared the winner of the Commonwealth’s primary.
African-American voters are a key element of the Democratic demographic in Virginia. However, that demographic is considerably more diverse than South Carolina’s. A big Biden win in Virginia, and that’s what we may be looking at, would be a great sign for a campaign that seemed moribund just a week or two ago.
Mike Bloomberg, by the way, looks to be running poorly in Virginia. He’s projected to win only about 10 percent of the vote in a state where he advertised heavily.
Bernie Sanders, to no one’s surprise, is the projected winner in Vermont, the state that foisted the socialist on an unsuspecting American public all those years ago.
UPDATE: As Virginia goes, so goes North Carolina. Not so much in general elections, but probably true in Democratic primaries. Indeed, exit polling indicates that Biden will carry North Carolina. However, there have been problems at some polling stations, apparently, so they remain open after the scheduled closing time. Thus, the race can’t be called yet.
AND BLOOMBERG IS ON THE BOARD: He reportedly carries American Samoa. Money talked there, if nowhere else.
He wins four delegates, I think. Tulsi Gabbard reportedly finished second. I think she’ll get one delegate. If so, she’s have one more than Tom Steyer, and at a much lower price.
BIDEN KILLED IT IN VIRGINIA: With more than half of the vote in, he’s at 55 percent. Sanders is second with 22 percent. Usually, Fairfax County, near D.C., reports late. It has a smaller percentage of black voters than the state as a whole, I think, so Biden’s lead might decrease a little. But he still has a chance at another 30 point victory.
BIDEN WINS IN ALABAMA: This was expected.
A NEW BATCH OF STATES IS REPORTING: I’m watching Massachusetts. This might be an interesting three-way race, with Sanders, Biden, and Elizabeth Warren (for once) in contention.
BIDEN WON NORTH CAROLINA, BUT NOT BIG: He’s about 10 points up on Sanders, with Bloomberg running a relatively strong third. All three figure to win delegates in the Tar Heel State. Probably none of Warren, though. She’s just below 10 percent, statewide.
Buttigieg is at about 7 percent in North Carolina. If he had withdrawn earlier, Biden’s margin of victory might be a bit larger.
UPDATE ON NORTH CAROLINA: Biden’s lead over Sanders is now about 8 points. Bloomberg has slipped a little. Warren has moved up to almost 12 percent but still runs fourth.
OKLAHOMA is the first of the states the closed this hour (8:00 in the East) to count 10 percent of the vote. It’s Biden (28.5), Sanders (22.8), Bloomberg (17.3), and Warren (13.5).
UPDATE: Biden wins Oklahoma.
COLORADO has gone for Sanders, a predictable outcome in light of Sanders’s big win in Nevada. Less predictable was the fact that Bloomberg is in second place a few points ahead of Biden (although this could change). Colorado is a state in which Bloomberg’s presence split the non-socialist vote more or less in half. We’ll see how the delegate count shakes out.
PUT TENNESSEE IN BIDEN’S COLUMN: Bloomberg is running a strong third. All three leading candidates will pick up delegates. Warren will probably be shut out.
LET’S RETURN TO MASSACHUSETTS: With about 20 percent of the vote in, the race is tight between Biden and Sanders. Warren is in third place in her home state. Those Massachusetts-based readers who told me how awful a candidate she is, and how even in Massachusetts she’s not all that popular, knew what they were talking about.
Warren is at around 20 percent, so at least she’ll pick up some delegates.
Surely, Liz has to drop out after her awful showing throughout the county today. For all that Warren kicked Bloomberg around in the two debates, the billionaire is having a better night than she is.
NATE SILVER MAKES A SHREWD OBSERVATION: “Turnout in Virginia up from ~800K in 2016 to ~1.3M this year. It doesn’t seem great for Sanders’s electability narrative that turnout seems to be increasing more in states where he isn’t doing as well.”
WHAT ABOUT MINNESOTA? Biden is looking good there. He’s ahead of Sanders by 4 points. Only about 20 percent of the vote is in, but The Upshot projects Biden as the likely winner.
A week ago, this looked like a close race between Sanders and Klobuchar. But Biden’s nationwide surge, coupled with Klobuchar’s endorsement, turned things around, perhaps completely.
Klobuchar wasn’t lying when she bragged constantly about what a force she is in Minnesota politics. Unfortunately for her, her force was confined to that state. It didn’t even carry over to Iowa.
MINNESOTA UPDATE: AP has called the race for Biden. The former VP has also won in Arkansas. Sanders and Bloomberg are basically tied for second with about 20 percent of the vote in.
OKAY, WE HAVE SOME TEXAS RETURNS: With 10 percent of the Texas vote in, Sanders has a six point lead over Biden, with Bloomberg five points behind Biden. This might be another state that Sanders wins because Biden and Bloomberg split the non-socialist vote.
However, I don’t where the counted votes have come from and to what extent these are early votes. All night, Sanders has been doing well among those who voted early, while Biden is generally doing great among those who voted today.
SANDERS IS LOOKING GOOD IN UTAH: He’s out to a big lead. I don’t see anyone catching.
Bloomberg is in second place. Biden is a very distant third, with only 12 percent of the vote. Utah seems to be about a month behind the times as far as this race is concerned.
BLOOMBERG REPORTEDLY REASSESSING: I wouldn’t call this a terrible night for Mike Bloomberg. He has a second place finish in Colorado and probably will have one in Utah. He’s run ahead of Warren in most states. He’s been around 20 percent in several. He might show well in California.
However, with Biden doing so well, I don’t see a path to the nomination for Bloomberg.
He may not, either. Reportedly, Bloomberg is “reassessing” his candidacy.
WHY DON’T WE HAVE MORE RETURNS FROM MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE? The polls closed in these two New England states hours ago. Yet neither seems to have reported results from even half of its precincts.
In Maine, Sanders and Biden are virtually tied. In Massachusetts, Biden remains a few points ahead of Sanders with Warren well back in third place.
MASSACHUSETTS UPDATE: Some are now projecting Biden as the winner, which looks reasonable as I read the vote totals.
I have pointed to a few states where Bloomberg’s candidacy may have helped Sanders by taking votes from Biden. Massachusetts is one state where Warren’s candidacy made a Biden win possible by taking votes from Sanders. Minnesota may be another.
SANDERS CONTINUES TO LEAD IN TEXAS: But it’s close. The margin, with 30 percent of the vote in, is 3.5 percent.
I’ll guess that the delegate split between Sanders and Biden will be pretty even, with Bloomberg picking up a few.
CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN CALLED FOR SANDERS: Politico has that check mark next to his name. Only about six percent of the vote has been counted, so this must be a projection.
It appears that the early voting carried Sanders to his victory in California. According to FiveThirtyEight, polling indicates that Sanders crushed Biden 41 percent to 18 percent among early deciders, but Biden actually won late deciders 40 percent to 29 percent.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bloomberg ran ahead of Biden with early deciders.
Thus, while Sanders’s win in California takes some of the edge off of a disappointing night, the fact (if it’s true) that even in California Biden won handsomely among those who decided late suggests that Sanders is in trouble.
SIGNING OFF: The delegate breakdowns in California and Texas are going to be very interesting and rather important. However, I don’t think we’ll know what they are any time soon — certainly not in California. Therefore, I’m going to call it a night.
And what a night it was for Joe Biden.
