Final Predictions [Updated]

As we wait for election results to begin coming in, this is a good time for a final set of predictions. Scott has said more than once that he is, by temperament, a pessimist. I balance that by being, for the most part, a hopeless optimist. You will see that reflected in my election forecast.

U.S. Senate: GOP finishes the night with 55 senators.

U.S. House: GOP picks up a net 30 seats.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Republicans will control both the House and the Senate in January, the only question being their margin of victory.

In my home state of Minnesota, I expect Republicans to net two additional Senate seats to solidify their control of that body. The GOP will pick up between 15 and 18 House seats, easily taking control of that chamber.

The main Congressional race is in my own district, where Republican Tyler Kistner will oust incumbent Democrat Angie Craig.

In Minnesota’s constitutional races, Jim Schultz will send Attorney General Keith Ellison into retirement. Ryan Wilson will beat the Democratic incumbent for state Auditor. The Secretary of State race will be close, but most observers think the Democratic incumbent has the edge.

The great unknown is the governor race. It, too, will be close, likely razor-thin, but I am picking Republican Scott Jensen to narrowly defeat incumbent Tim Walz, if only because Walz’s record is so terrible, on so many fronts, that it is hard to imagine him being re-elected. Also, if Republicans do as well as I think they well in legislative races, it will take a remarkable amount of ticket-splitting for Walz to win.

I actually bet on Jensen a month or two ago on one of the election prediction sites, when the odds against him were 9 to 1. So if he wins, I get $1,000–a very small return compared to the immense benefit that will accrue to Minnesota from a Jensen victory.

Now, a few specific races in other states:

* Never fear, poor John Fetterman will not be going to Washington.

* Tiffany Smiley will beat Patty Murray in Washington.

* Lee Zeldin will be elected Governor of New York.

* Tudor Dixon will come agonizingly close to being elected Governor of Michigan, but will fall short.

* Kari Lake will absolutely trash Katie Hobbs in the Arizona governor race, and will bring Blake Masters across the finish line with her.

Finally, if you enjoy watching Kari Lake as much as I do, this is fun:

UPDATE: Well, that didn’t go the way I expected! What a horrible night. I will try to assess the carnage in the morning and will have more to say tomorrow. For now, just this: if there is a silver lining, it may be that we have seen the last of Donald J. Trump.

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