2022 Election

Crime second only to economy as issue in Virginia race

Featured image What do voters consider the most important issues in the Virginia gubernatorial race? As usual, the economy ranks #1. Right behind it, though, is crime. So finds a CBS/YouGov poll of likely Virginia voters. The pollsters asked voters to rate the importance of seven issues. Here are the results in order of importance (the percentages are of those who consider the issue a major factor in the governor’s race): Economy: »

Reading the Tea Leaves in Virginia

Featured image Last night Virginina watched a debate between former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe, who is trying for a second turn in office (Virginia has a single-term limit, but you are still eligible to run again after another governor serves), and Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin. Polls show it to be a close race. I’ve never thought McAuliffe an especially talented politician, and he let fly with two howlers in the debate, captured »

Chamber of Commerce tries to rein in Democrats it endorsed

Featured image In 2020, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed 23 freshmen Democrats for Congress. I’m tempted to say that if Congress enacts the Democrats’ massive spending packages, complete with tax increases and anti-business agenda items, the Chamber will have gotten what it deserves. In fact, I will say it. The Chamber is belatedly trying to avert this disaster and to limit the damage its improvident endorsements caused. It’s warning the Democrats »

Trump aids Stacey Abrams in Georgia

Featured image At a rally in Georgia, Donald Trump said that having Stacey Abrams as governor of that state “might well be better” than having Republican incumbent Brian Kemp in that position. (See the end of this post for the full context.) For Trump, Kemp’s refusal to go all-in on unsubstantiated claims of outcome-determinative election fraud counts for more in deciding who should govern Georgia than Abrams’ beyond-the-pale leftism. As always, Donald »

Iowans overwhelmingly disapprove of Biden’s performance

Featured image A poll from Iowa is getting plenty of attention, and deservedly so, I think. According to the survey, Iowans disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as president by a ratio of 2-1. 62 percent say they disapprove. Only 31 percent say they approve. In June, in a survey by the same pollster, 43 percent approved of Biden’s performance and 52 percent disapproved. But that was before the Afghanistan fiasco and the »

Compared to what?

Featured image As Scott discussed in a post this morning, Gov. Gavin Newsom not only avoided recall, he avoided it quite handily. It seems that nearly two-thirds of the Californians who voted in this election favored sticking with Newsom despite the obvious deterioration of the Golden State and its governor’s foibles. Kyle Smith explains Newsom’s easy victory with a question: “Compared to what?” Conservatives got high on our own supply out in »

Poll: Biden below water in seven key congressional districts

Featured image We’ve discussed the fact that Joe Biden’s approval rating is sinking in national surveys. John Fund points us to what might be an even more relevant survey of Biden’s approval — one that polled seven key House districts, each represented by a Democrat. Biden fares little better in these jurisdictions than he does nationally. He’s underwater in all of them, and by seven points on average: The American Action Network, »

The Democrats are in serious trouble

Featured image Harry Enten, formerly of FiveThirtyEight and now with CNN, finds that the political environment is moving toward the Republicans. That’s not news, but Enten tries to quantify the movement. His starting point is that Connecticut state senate race I wrote about here. In that contest, a Republican won a special election in a district that Joe Biden carried by more than 20 points in 2020. That race is an outlier, »

An encouraging result from Connecticut

Featured image On Tuesday, the Republicans flipped a seat in the Connecticut state senate. Republican Ryan Fazio, a member of Greenwich’s local council, defeated Democrat Alexis Gevanter, a gun control advocate. The race was in Connecticut’s 36th district, a wealthy suburban pocket not far from New York City. The median household income in this district is around $160,000 per year. Joe Biden carried this district by 25 percentage points last year, a »

Americans Are Getting Pessimistic…

Featured image …which shows that they are paying attention. A just-released ABC News/Ipsos poll finds that most Americans are now gloomy about our prospects for the coming year: As President Joe Biden completed 100 days in office, the country was optimistic about the coming year, but now, just after hitting the six-month mark, Americans’ optimism about the direction of the country has plummeted nearly 20 points, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds. »

The Economy: A Winning Issue for Republicans

Featured image The Democrats entered 2021 thinking they could do pretty much anything they want, and coast to future victories on the back of the inevitable economic rebound from covid shutdown-depressed 2020. No matter how much they held back the economy, their thinking went, it would show vigorous growth and thereby insulate them from political fallout. The Democrats’ cockiness was exemplified by Joe Biden’s absurd assertion that “no serious economist” is worried »

Is “infrastructure” a political winner for Democrats?

Featured image Polling suggests that it probably isn’t. Philip Klein discusses the matter here. One poll found that, by a big margin, Americans answer the following question affirmatively: President Biden recently proposed a $2 trillion infrastructure plan to be spent on roads, bridges and trains, internet access, power grid improvements, and clean energy projects. In general, do you support or oppose this plan. In another poll, by about the same large margin »

Dems Say: We’re In Trouble

Featured image Someone passed on to me a report done by a Democratic Party consulting group called Future Majority. The report covers polling done by Future Majority in 37 Congressional swing districts, along with additional polling in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Arizona, Michigan and New Hampshire. Along with poll results, it includes extensive recommendations to the Democratic Party. The polling was mostly done between May 10 and May 14. The report is embedded »

Trouble for Dems in Battleground States

Featured image Earlier this month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican Governors’ Association employed OnMessage Inc. to conduct a poll of 26 states where important Senate and gubernatorial races are shaping up in 2022. The poll included 1,200 likely voters, but it is not clear how those voters were distributed among the 26 states. Of the states that were surveyed, ten were classified as red, nine as purple, and seven »

Latinos deal Democrats setbacks in Texas

Featured image The Democrats are said to have high hopes for becoming competitive, and eventually dominant, in Texas. Like they did in Virginia. The Dems’ dreams could be realized, especially if enough people move from California to Texas — and forget why they left California. Texas is not Virginia, though. Not unless the federal government moves its headquarters to just across the border from the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, several GOP mayoral »

Dems to Selves: Was It Something We Said?

Featured image The New York Times reports today on an unintentionally hilarious and revealing internal study a consortium of Democrat-aligned consulting groups have produced concerning the fact that aside from Joe Biden, Democrats performed very poorly in the last election. There is special worry over the “overperformance” of Trump and Republicans with hispanics and blacks, which isn’t supposed to happen according to Democratic “emerging demographic majority” dogma that says if “we label »

GOP Wave In 2022?

Featured image OK, that headline is clickbait, and we all know it is far too early to predict next fall’s elections with any confidence. Still, there are lots of positive indications. To begin with, there are multiple reports that while the Democrats feel comfortable with their position on the economy, with continuing rebound from the covid shutdowns assured and with some polls showing the public on board with the Biden administration’s money-printing »